Bert De Smedt

Numerical modelling of historical front variations and dynamic response of Sofiyskiy glacier, Altai mountains, Russia

Abstract The recent fluctuation of the central Asian climate, and its effect on the region’s glaciers, is poorly known, largely because of a lack of knowledge of the dynamic behaviour of so-called summer-accumulation-type glaciers. In this study, a one-dimensional numerical glacier model is used to simulate the dynamic response of Sofiyskiy glacier, Altai mountains, Russia, to climate forcing. A successful simulation of the observed historical front variations was accomplished by dynamic calibration. This resulted in a reconstruction of the recent mass-balance history of the glacier, showing a distinct decline in surface mass balance in the second half of the 19th century, a slightly higher mass balance at the beginning of the 20th century, followed by a steady decline towards present conditions. The future response of Sofiyskiy glacier was projected for six 21st-century climate scenarios. Under a “no-change” scenario, the glacier will retreat > 2 km by 2100. If air temperature gradually rises by > 5°C during this century, the glacier will vanish around 2100. Basic response characteristics of Sofiyskiy glacier were determined. These indicate rather low mass-balance sensitivity to temperature change, but a strong front reaction due to geometric conditions.

Bed properties and hydrological conditions underneath McCall Glacier, Alaska, USA.

Abstract During three summer field seasons (2003, 2005 and 2006) we carried out radio-echo sounding measurements with a 5MHz (central frequency) ice-penetrating radar on McCall Glacier, Arctic Alaska, USA, along the central flowline and 17 cross-profiles. Two-way travel time was, after migration, converted to ice thickness, which, in combination with a recent digital elevation model of the surface of the glaciated area, resulted in a detailed map of the bed topography. This reveals a complex basal topography in the confluence area of the different glacial cirques. The pattern of subglacial water flow following the hydraulic potential gradient was calculated for the whole glacier area and shows a confluence of subglacial water downstream from the confluence of the glacier cirques. From the ice-thickness map the total ice volume was estimated as slightly less than 0.5 km3. Bed reflection power (BRP) was determined for the glacier after correction for ice-thickness dependence. Results reveal a clear relationship between the BRP pattern and basal sliding anomalies along the central flowline.