Bertrand Magné

Plafond de concentration en carbone et substitutions entre ressources énergétiques

Fossil fuel use causes the atmospheric accumulation of carbon. The society, endowed with an alternative clean renewable energy, aims at keeping this pollution stock below a prescribed target. The use of an abundant and costly backstop shall follow the exhaustion of the polluting resource; in case of a cheap and abundant substitute, both resources may be exploited simultaneously. When the substitute is scarce, the phase of simultaneous exploitation may occur before the ceiling is reached.

Can Nuclear Power Save the Kyoto Protocol

Global warming is primarily caused by carbon produced by the burning of fossil fuels, especially coal. However, nuclear power is carbon free. We develop a dynamic model of the world energy economy that includes fossil fuels and nuclear power. If global warming is to be controlled, nuclear power becomes economical, but a surprising result is that currently known stocks of uranium may only last for a very limited time. We find the scarcity rent of uranium to be large. Since only four countries possess most of the worlds uranium, this could lead to an OPEC-like uranium cartel. We model advanced nuclear technology, prototypes of which are already operational, that can reuse a significant portion of nuclear waste. We find that this technology can supply energy for an indefinite period. If global energy demand were to stagnate along with population late in this century, the imputed price of carbon today may be much lower than previously thought.