Bertrand Sudre

Chikungunya outbreak in the Caribbean region, December 2013 to March 2014, and the significance for Europe

On 6 December 2013, two laboratory-confirmed cases of chikungunya without a travel history were reported on the French part of the Caribbean island of Saint Martin, indicating the start of the first documented outbreak of chikungunya in the Americas. Since this report, the virus spread to several Caribbean islands and French Guiana, and between 6 December 2013 and 27 March 2014 more than 17,000 suspected and confirmed cases have been reported. Further spread and establishment of the disease in the Americas is likely, given the high number of people travelling between the affected and non-affected areas and the widespread occurrence of efficient vectors. Also, the likelihood of the introduction of the virus into Europe from the Americas and subsequent transmission should be considered especially in the context of the next mosquito season in Europe. Clinicians should be aware that, besides dengue, chikungunya should be carefully considered among travellers currently returning from the Caribbean region.

Monitoring EU Emerging Infectious Disease Risk Due to Climate Change

Climate change, globalization, and other drivers have made Europe a “hot spot” for emerging infectious diseases, which calls for changes in monitoring systems. In recent years, we have seen transmission of traditionally “tropical” diseases in continental Europe: chikungunya fever (CF) in Italy in 2007, large outbreaks of West Nile fever in Greece and Romania in 2010, and the first local transmission of dengue fever in France and Croatia in 2010 (1–3). These events support the notion that Europe is a potential “hot spot” for emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) (4). Major EID drivers that could threaten control efforts in Europe include globalization and environmental change (including climate change, travel, migration, and global trade); social and demographic drivers (including population aging, social inequality, and life-styles); and public health system drivers (including antimicrobial resistance, health care capacity, animal health, and food safety) (5, 6). Climate change is expected to aggravate existing local vulnerabilities by interacting with a complex web of these drivers (6). For example, increases in global trade and travel, in combination with climate change, are foreseen to facilitate the arrival, establishment, and dispersal of new pathogens, disease vectors, and reservoir species.

Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector’s climatic suitability and virus’ temperature requirements

BackgroundChikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis.MethodsThe climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences.In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5.ResultsEuropean areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the first half of the 21st century and from mid-century onwards for central parts of Europe (e.g. Germany). Interestingly, the southernmost parts of Europe do not generally provide suitable conditions in these projections. Nevertheless, many Mediterranean regions will persist to be climatically suitable for transmission. Overall, the highest risk of transmission by the end of the 21st century was projected for France, Northern Italy and the Pannonian Basin (East-Central Europe). This general tendency is depicted in both, the A1B and B1 climate change scenarios.ConclusionIn order to guide preparedness for further outbreaks, it is crucial to anticipate risk as to identify areas where specific public health measures, such as surveillance and vector control, can be implemented. However, public health practitioners need to be aware that climate is only one factor driving the transmission of vector-borne disease.

Clinical features and evolution of alveolar echinococcosis in France from 1982 to 2007: Results of a survey in 387 patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a rare disease in humans, caused by the larval stage of the fox tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis. METHODS We present here 387 detailed AE cases diagnosed in France from 1982 to 2007 actively identified by a retrospective survey performed in 1997-1998 and prospectively thereafter. RESULTS Male:female ratio was 1.03 and mean age 57.8 years at time of diagnosis. Among the 362 complete files (including 347 non dead-out and 15 dead-out lesions), 73% of the patients were symptomatic at first admittance. Among them, 83% presented with clinical patterns evocative either of a digestive or a hepatic disorder. Other symptomatic patients presented with erratic clinical pictures, generally due to metastasis or extra-hepatic location of the parasite. Except for a few patients with particularly severe AE who died shortly after the diagnosis, most patients were treated using benzimidazoles. Their mortality tends to merge with that of the general French population, matched by sex, age, and calendar year. This study also highlights an unexpectedly high frequency of blood-tied family cases (13% of patients submitted to a specific questionnaire). CONCLUSIONS Even though the broad set of clinical features provoked by E. multilocularis makes AE a potential diagnostic trap for many physicians, our study revealed an improvement of its prognosis. However, as shown by our findings about the frequency of family cases, there is still a need for studies aimed at better describing this uncommon parasitic disease.

Dynamics of cholera outbreaks in Great Lakes region of Africa, 1978-2008.

Outbreaks fluctuate on the basis of season, rainfall, plankton bloom, and fishing activities.

Lakes as Source of Cholera Outbreaks, Democratic Republic of Congo

We studied the epidemiology of cholera in Katanga and Eastern Kasai, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, by compiling a database including all cases recorded from 2000 through 2005. Results show that lakes were the sources of outbreaks and demonstrate the inadequacy of the strategy used to combat cholera.

Taking stock of the first 133 MERS coronavirus cases globally – Is the epidemic changing?

Since June 2012, 133 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) cases have been identified in nine countries. Two time periods in 2013 were compared to identify changes in the epidemiology. The case-fatality risk (CFR) is 45% and is decreasing. Men have a higher CFR (52%) and are over-represented among cases. Thirteen out of 14 known primary cases died. The sex-ratio is more balanced in the latter period. Nosocomial transmission was implied in 26% of the cases.

Environmental Determinants of Cholera Outbreaks in Inland Africa: A Systematic Review of Main Transmission Foci and Propagation Routes

Cholera is generally regarded as the prototypical waterborne and environmental disease. In Africa, available studies are scarce, and the relevance of this disease paradigm is questionable. Cholera outbreaks have been repeatedly reported far from the coasts: from 2009 through 2011, three-quarters of all cholera cases in Africa occurred in inland regions. Such outbreaks are either influenced by rainfall and subsequent floods or by drought- and water-induced stress. Their concurrence with global climatic events has also been observed. In lakes and rivers, aquatic reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae have been evocated. However, the role of these reservoirs in cholera epidemiology has not been established. Starting from inland cholera-endemic areas, epidemics burst and spread to various environments, including crowded slums and refugee camps. Human displacements constitute a major determinant of this spread. Further studies are urgently needed to better understand these complex dynamics, improve water and sanitation efforts, and eliminate cholera from Africa.

Cholera epidemics, war and disasters around Goma and Lake Kivu: an eight-year survey.

Background During the last eight years, North and South Kivu, located in a lake area in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, have been the site of a major volcano eruption and of numerous complex emergencies with population displacements. These conditions have been suspected to favour emergence and spread of cholera epidemics. Methodology/Principal Findings In order to assess the influence of these conditions on outbreaks, reports of cholera cases were collected weekly from each health district of North Kivu (4,667,699 inhabitants) and South Kivu (4,670,121 inhabitants) from 2000 through 2007. A geographic information system was established, and in each health district, the relationships between environmental variables and the number of cholera cases were assessed using regression techniques and time series analysis. We further checked for a link between complex emergencies and cholera outbreaks. Finally, we analysed data collected during an epidemiological survey that was implemented in Goma after Nyiragongo eruption. A total of 73,605 cases and 1,612 deaths of cholera were reported. Time series decomposition showed a greater number of cases during the rainy season in South Kivu but not in North Kivu. Spatial distribution of cholera cases exhibited a higher number of cases in health districts bordering lakes (Odds Ratio 7.0, Confidence Interval range 3.8–12.9). Four epidemic reactivations were observed in the 12-week periods following war events, but simulations indicate that the number of reactivations was not larger than that expected during any random selection of period with no war. Nyiragongo volcanic eruption was followed by a marked decrease of cholera incidence. Conclusion/Significance Our study points out the crucial role of some towns located in lakeside areas in the persistence of cholera in Kivu. Even if complex emergencies were not systematically followed by cholera epidemics, some of them enabled cholera spreading.

Correlation of Borrelia burgdorferi Sensu Lato Prevalence in Questing Ixodes ricinus Ticks with Specific Abiotic Traits in the Western Palearctic

ABSTRACT This meta-analysis of reports examining ticks throughout the Western Palearctic region indicates a distinct geographic pattern for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato prevalence in questing nymphal Ixodes ricinus ticks. The greatest prevalence was reported between the 5°E and 25°E longitudes based on an analysis of 123 collection points with 37,940 nymphal tick specimens (87.43% of total nymphs; 56.35% of total ticks in the set of reports over the target area). Climatic traits, such as temperature and vegetation stress, and their seasonality correlated with Borrelia prevalence in questing ticks. The greatest prevalence was associated with mild winter, high summer, and low seasonal amplitude of temperatures within the range of the tick vector, higher vegetation indices in the May-June period, and well-connected vegetation patches below a threshold at which rates suddenly drop. Classification of the target territory using a qualitative risk index derived from the abiotic variables produced an indicator of the probability of finding infected ticks in the Western Palearctic region. No specific temporal trends were detected in the reported prevalence. The ranges of the different B. burgdorferi sensu lato genospecies showed a pattern of high biodiversity between 4°W and 20°E, partially overlapping the area of highest prevalence in ticks. Borrelia afzelii and Borrelia garinii are the dominant species in central Europe (east of ∼25°E), but B. garinii may appear alone at southern latitudes and Borrelia lusitaniae is the main indicator species for meridional territories.