Bethanna Jackson

Improving the theoretical underpinnings of process‐based hydrologic models

In this Commentary, we argue that it is possible to improve the physical realism of hydrologic models by making better use of existing hydrologic theory. We address the following questions: (1) what are some key elements of current hydrologic theory; (2) how can those elements best be incorporated where they may be missing in current models; and (3) how can we evaluate competing hydrologic theories across scales and locations? We propose that hydrologic science would benefit from a model-based community synthesis effort to reframe, integrate, and evaluate different explanations of hydrologic behavior, and provide a controlled avenue to find where understanding falls short.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The models abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed.

Comparing strengths and weaknesses of three ecosystem services modelling tools in a diverse UK river catchment

Ecosystem services modelling tools can help land managers and policy makers evaluate the impacts of alternative management options or changes in land use on the delivery of ecosystem services. As the variety and complexity of these tools increases, there is a need for comparative studies across a range of settings, allowing users to make an informed choice. Using examples of provisioning and regulating services (water supply, carbon storage and nutrient retention), we compare three spatially explicit tools - LUCI (Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator), ARIES (Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) and InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs). Models were parameterised for the UK and applied to a temperate catchment with widely varying land use in North Wales. Although each tool provides quantitative mapped output, can be applied in different contexts, and can work at local or national scale, they differ in the approaches taken and underlying assumptions made. In this study, we focus on the wide range of outputs produced for each service and discuss the differences between each modelling tool. Model outputs were validated using empirical data for river flow, carbon and nutrient levels within the catchment. The sensitivity of the models to land-use change was tested using four scenarios of varying severity, evaluating the conversion of grassland habitat to woodland (0-30% of the landscape). We show that, while the modelling tools provide broadly comparable quantitative outputs, each has its own unique features and strengths. Therefore the choice of tool depends on the study question.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale.

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1×1km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.

Use of an entropy‐based metric in multiobjective calibration to improve model performance

Parameter estimation for hydrological models is complicated for many reasons, one of which is the arbitrary emphasis placed, by most traditional measures of fit, on various magnitudes of the model residuals. Recent research has called for the development of robust diagnostic measures that provide insights into which model structural components and/or data may be inadequate. In this regard, the flow duration curve (FDC) represents the historical variability of flow and is considered to be an informative signature of catchment behavior. Here we investigate the potential of using the recently developed conditioned entropy difference metric (CED) in combination with the Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE). The CED respects the static information contained in the flow frequency distribution (and hence the FDC), but does not explicitly characterize temporal dynamics. The KGE reweights the importance of various hydrograph components (correlation, bias, variability) in a way that has been demonstrated to provide better model calibrations than the commonly used Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, while being explicitly time sensitive. We employ both measures within a multiobjective calibration framework and achieve better performance over the full range of flows than obtained by single-criteria approaches, or by the common multiobjective approach that uses log-transformed and untransformed data to balance fitting of low and high flow periods. The investigation highlights the potential of CED to complement KGE (and vice versa) during model identification. It is possible that some of the complementarity is due to CED representing more information from moments >2 than KGE or other common metrics. We therefore suggest that an interesting way forward would be to extend KGE to include higher moments, i.e., use different moments as multiple criteria.

Recent advances in modelling nitrate transport in the Chalk unsaturated zone

The Chalk unsaturated zone is crucial in controlling the delivery of nitrate to Chalk streams and groundwater abstraction wells. In this paper, results from a dual-permeability numerical model of the Chalk unsaturated zone are used to illustrate the relative roles of matrix and fracture flow. A major challenge arises in representing the Chalk unsaturated zone within catchment-scale models for nutrient management. These have generally been based on simple conceptual reservoirs or compartments to represent soils and groundwater. A more appropriate conceptualization has recently been developed and applied to the Lambourn catchment within a catchment-scale nutrient model (INCA-Chalk). Preliminary results from this work are discussed, which clearly illustrate the decadal time scales that need to be considered in the context of nutrient management and the Water Framework Directive.

When, Where, and How Nature Matters for Ecosystem Services: Challenges for the Next Generation of Ecosystem Service Models

&NA; Many decision‐makers are looking to science to clarify how nature supports human well‐being. Scientists’ responses have typically focused on empirical models of the provision of ecosystem services (ES) and resulting decision‐support tools. Although such tools have captured some of the complexities of ES, they can be difficult to adapt to new situations. Globally useful tools that predict the provision of multiple ES under different decision scenarios have proven challenging to develop. Questions from decision‐makers and limitations of existing decision‐support tools indicate three crucial research frontiers for incorporating cutting‐edge ES science into decision‐support tools: (1) understanding the complex dynamics of ES in space and time, (2) linking ES provision to human well‐being, and (3) determining the potential for technology to substitute for or enhance ES. We explore these frontiers in‐depth, explaining why each is important and how existing knowledge at their cutting edges can be incorporated to improve ES decision‐making tools.

Robust informational entropy-based descriptors of flow in catchment hydrology

Abstract This paper explores the use of entropy-based measures in catchment hydrology, and provides an importance-weighted numerical descriptor of the flow–duration curve. Although entropy theory is being applied in a wide spectrum of areas (including environmental and water resources), artefacts arising from the discrete, under-sampled and uncertain nature of hydrological data are rarely acknowledged, and have not been adequately explored. Here, we examine challenges to extracting hydrologically meaningful entropy measures from a flow signal; the effect of binning resolution on calculation of entropy is investigated, along with artefacts caused by (1) emphasis of information theoretic measures towards flow ranges having more data (statistically dominant information), and (2) effects of discharge measurement truncation errors. We introduce an importance-weighted entropy-based measure to counter the tendency of common binning approaches to over-emphasise information contained in the low flows which dominate the record. The measure uses a novel binning method, and overcomes artefacts due to data resolution and under-sampling. Our analysis reveals a fundamental problem with the extraction of information at high flows, due to the lack of statistically significant samples in this range. By separating the flow–duration curve into segments, our approach constrains the computed entropy to better respect distributional properties over the data range. When used as an objective function for model calibration, this approach constrains high flow predictions, as well as the commonly used Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, but provides much better predictions of low flow behaviour. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor Not assigned

Numerical simulation of transient groundwater age distributions assisting land and water management in the Middle Wairarapa Valley, New Zealand

This study used numerical models to simulate transient groundwater age distributions using a time-marching Laplace transform Galerkin (TMLTG) technique. First, the TMLTG technique was applied to simple box models configured to match idealized lumped parameter models (LPMs). Even for simple box models, time-varying recharge can generate groundwater age distributions with highly irregular shapes that vary over time in response to individual recharge events. Notably, the transient numerical simulations showed that the breakthrough and mean ages are younger than in the steady flow case, and that this difference is greater for sporadic recharge time series than for more regular recharge time series. Second, the TMLTG technique was applied to a transient numerical model of the 270 km2 Middle Wairarapa Valley, New Zealand. To our knowledge this study is the first application of the TMLTG technique to a real-world example, made possible by the dataset of tritium measurements that exists for the Wairarapa Valley. Results from a transient mean age simulation shows variation from a few days to over a decade in either temporal or spatial dimensions. Temporal variations of mean age are dependent on seasonal climate and groundwater abstraction. Results also demonstrated important differences between the transient age distributions derived from the TMLTG technique compared to the much simpler steady-state LPMs that are frequently applied to interpret age tracer data. Finally, results had direct application to land and water management, for example for identification of land areas where age distributions vary seasonally, affecting the security of groundwater supplies used for drinking water. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Potential groundwater age tracer found: Halon‐1301 (CF3Br), as previously identified as CFC‐13 (CF3Cl)

Groundwater dating using anthropogenic and natural tracer substances is a powerful tool for understanding groundwater dynamics for improved management of groundwater resources. Due to limitations in individual dating methods, often multiple tracers are used to reduce ambiguities. It is commonly accepted that there is a need for further complementary age tracers, in addition to current ones (e.g., tritium, SF6, and CFCs). We propose a potential new groundwater age tracer, Halon-1301 (CF3Br), which can easily be determined using gas chromatography with an attached electron capture detector (GC/ECD) developed by Busenberg and Plummer (2008). Its peak was noted by Busenberg and Plummer (2008), but they believed it to be CFC-13 (CF3Cl) at that time. We performed rigorous tests on gases containing or excluding Halon-1301 and CFC-13 and modern water samples and concluded that the two compounds have extremely similar retention times. Additionally, we found that the ECD response of CFC-13 is far too low to be detected in groundwater or air using standard volumes and sampling techniques. However, the peak areas and concentrations Busenberg and Plummer (2008) reported are in line with what would be expected for Halon-1301. Thus, we are confident that the peak formerly identified as CFC-13 is actually Halon-1301. Busenberg agrees with our findings. We further suggest that Halon-1301 has potential as a (complementary) age tracer, due to its established atmospheric history, and could hypothetically be used to date groundwater recharged in the 1970s or onward. We discuss known relevant properties, such as solubility and stability of Halon-1301 in the context of how these effect its potential application as a groundwater age tracer. Some open questions remain concerning how conservative Halon-1301 is—is it subject to degradation, retardation, and/or local contamination in groundwater. We are confident that Halon-1301 possesses important tracer relevant properties, but further work is required to fully assess its applicability and reliability as a groundwater age tracer in different groundwater environments.