Betty J. Kreakie

Predicting and Mapping Potential Whooping Crane Stopover Habitat to Guide Site Selection for Wind Energy Projects

Migratory stopover habitats are often not part of planning for conservation or new development projects. We identified potential stopover habitats within an avian migratory flyway and demonstrated how this information can guide the site-selection process for new development. We used the random forests modeling approach to map the distribution of predicted stopover habitat for the Whooping Crane (Grus americana), an endangered species whose migratory flyway overlaps with an area where wind energy development is expected to become increasingly important. We then used this information to identify areas for potential wind power development in a U.S. state within the flyway (Nebraska) that minimize conflicts between Whooping Crane stopover habitat and the development of clean, renewable energy sources. Up to 54% of our study area was predicted to be unsuitable as Whooping Crane stopover habitat and could be considered relatively low risk for conflicts between Whooping Cranes and wind energy development. We suggest that this type of analysis be incorporated into the habitat conservation planning process in areas where incidental take permits are being considered for Whooping Cranes or other species of concern. Field surveys should always be conducted prior to construction to verify model predictions and understand baseline conditions.

Patterns in Stable Isotope Values of Nitrogen and Carbon in Particulate Matter from the Northwest Atlantic Continental Shelf, from the Gulf of Maine to Cape Hatteras

Stable isotope measurements of nitrogen and carbon (δ15N, δ13C) are often used to characterize estuarine, nearshore, and open ocean ecosystems. Reliable information about the spatial distribution of base-level stable isotope values, often represented by primary producers, is critical to interpreting values in these ecosystems. While base-level isotope data are generally readily available for estuaries, nearshore coastal waters, and the open ocean, the continental shelf is less studied. To address this, and as a first step towards developing a surrogate for base-level isotopic signature in this region, we collected surface and deep water samples from the United States’ eastern continental shelf in the Western Atlantic Ocean, from the Gulf of Maine to Cape Hatteras, periodically between 2000 and 2013. During the study, particulate matter δ15N values ranged from 0.8 to 17.4 ‰, and δ13C values from -26.4 to -15.6 ‰ over the region. We used spatial autocorrelation analysis and random forest modeling to examine the spatial trends and potential environmental drivers of the stable isotope values. We observed general trends towards lower values for both nitrogen and carbon isotopes at the seaward edge of the shelf. Conversely, higher δ15N and δ13C values were observed on the landward edge of the shelf, in particular in the southern portion of the sampling area. Across all sites, the magnitude of the difference between the δ15N of subsurface and surface particulate matter (PM) significantly increased with water depth (r2 = 0.41, df = 35, p < 0.001), while δ13C values did not change. There were significant positive correlation between δ15N and δ13C values for surface PM in each of the three marine ecoregions that make up the study area. Stable isotope dynamics on the shelf can inform both nearshore and open ocean research efforts, reflecting regional productivity patterns and, even possibly, large-scale climate fluctuations.

Associations between chlorophyll a and various microcystin health advisory concentrations

Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cHABs) are associated with a wide range of adverse health effects that stem mostly from the presence of cyanotoxins. To help protect against these impacts, several health advisory levels have been set for some toxins. In particular, one of the more common toxins, microcystin, has several advisory levels set for drinking water and recreational use. However, compared to other water quality measures, field measurements of microcystin are not commonly available due to cost and advanced understanding required to interpret results. Addressing these issues will take time and resources. Thus, there is utility in finding indicators of microcystin that are already widely available, can be estimated quickly and in situ, and used as a first defense against high levels of microcystin. Chlorophyll a is commonly measured, can be estimated in situ, and has been shown to be positively associated with microcystin. In this paper, we use this association to provide estimates of chlorophyll a concentrations that are indicative of a higher probability of exceeding select health advisory concentrations for microcystin. Using the 2007 National Lakes Assessment and a conditional probability approach, we identify chlorophyll a concentrations that are more likely than not to be associated with an exceedance of a microcystin health advisory level. We look at the recent US EPA health advisories for drinking water as well as the World Health Organization levels for drinking water and recreational use and identify a range of chlorophyll a thresholds. A 50% chance of exceeding one of the specific advisory microcystin concentrations of 0.3, 1, 1.6, and 2 μg/L is associated with chlorophyll a concentration thresholds of 23, 68, 84, and 104 μg/L, respectively. When managing for these various microcystin levels, exceeding these reported chlorophyll a concentrations should be a trigger for further testing and possible management action.

A Random Forest approach to predict the spatial distribution of sediment pollution in an estuarine system

Modeling the magnitude and distribution of sediment-bound pollutants in estuaries is often limited by incomplete knowledge of the site and inadequate sample density. To address these modeling limitations, a decision-support tool framework was conceived that predicts sediment contamination from the sub-estuary to broader estuary extent. For this study, a Random Forest (RF) model was implemented to predict the distribution of a model contaminant, triclosan (5-chloro-2-(2,4-dichlorophenoxy)phenol) (TCS), in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA. TCS is an unregulated contaminant used in many personal care products. The RF explanatory variables were associated with TCS transport and fate (proxies) and direct and indirect environmental entry. The continuous RF TCS concentration predictions were discretized into three levels of contamination (low, medium, and high) for three different quantile thresholds. The RF model explained 63% of the variance with a minimum number of variables. Total organic carbon (TOC) (transport and fate proxy) was a strong predictor of TCS contamination causing a mean squared error increase of 59% when compared to permutations of randomized values of TOC. Additionally, combined sewer overflow discharge (environmental entry) and sand (transport and fate proxy) were strong predictors. The discretization models identified a TCS area of greatest concern in the northern reach of Narragansett Bay (Providence River sub-estuary), which was validated with independent test samples. This decision-support tool performed well at the sub-estuary extent and provided the means to identify areas of concern and prioritize bay-wide sampling.

Developing a wintering waterfowl community baseline for environmental monitoring of Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island.

In 2004, the Atlantic Ecology Division of the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Research and Development began an annual winter waterfowl survey of Rhode Island’s Narragansett Bay. Herein, we explore the survey data gathered from 2004 to 2011 in order to establish a benchmark understanding of our waterfowl communities and to establish a statistical framework for future environmental monitoring. The abundance and diversity of wintering waterfowl were relatively stable during the initial years of this survey, except in 2010 when there was a large spike in abundance and a reciprocal fall in diversity. There was no significant change in ranked abundance of most waterfowl species, with only Bufflehead ( Bucephala albeola) and Hooded Merganser ( Lophodytes cucllatus) showing a slight yet significant upward trend during the course of our survey period. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) was used to examine the community structure of wintering waterfowl. The results of the NMDS indicate that there is a spatial structure to the waterfowl communities of Narragansett Bay and this structure has remained relatively stable since the survey began. Our NMDS analysis helps to solidify what is known anecdotally about the bay’s waterfowl ecology, and provides a formalized benchmark for long-term monitoring of Narragansett Bay’s waterfowl communities. Birds, including waterfowl, are preferred bioindicators and we propose using our multivariate approach to monitor the future health of the bay. While this research focuses on a specific area of New England, these methods can be easily applied to novel areas of concern and provide a straightforward nonparametric approach to community-level monitoring. The methods provide a statistic test to examine potential drivers of community turnover and well-suited visualization tools.