Bev Wilson

Planning for Climate Adaptation: Evaluating the Changing Patterns of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation Challenges in Three Coastal Cities

While recent research has recognized the importance of considering social vulnerability, the changing patterns of social vulnerability within cities and the climate adaptation challenges these shifts pose have yet to receive much attention. In this article, we evaluate the changing patterns of social vulnerability in three coastal cities (Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa) over a thirty-year time period (1980–2010) and integrate neighborhood change theories with theories of social vulnerability to explain those patterns. Through this analysis, we highlight emerging dimensions of vulnerability that warrant attention in the future adaptation efforts of these cities.

Do large residential subdivisions induce further development? A spatially explicit hazard analysis of land use change in charlotte

Problem: Most previous research on land use change has been conducted at coarse scales with aggregated data, and there are relatively few studies that attempt to establish and examine these linkages at a disaggregate level. In addition, the cumulative effects of large residential developments have been little investigated as potential drivers of land use change. Purpose: We hypothesize that residential subdivisions of 10 acres or more exert detectable priming effects and influence the rate of subsequent development in the vicinity. We use parcel-level data to test whether unilateral development decisions have spillover effects across both space and time. Methods: We analyze parcel changes and then conduct a spatially explicit hazard analysis of land use change in Mecklenburg County, NC, to identify a set of factors that predict which vacant land parcels are most likely to experience a subdivision event (be subdivided) during a given one-year time period. We also perform a sensitivity analysis to assess how the specification of the priming effect measure affects the analysis, and to gain insight into the spatial extent of the hypothesized relationship between large residential subdivisions and subsequent development. Results and Conclusions: We find evidence of a positive association between large residential subdivision events and an increased likelihood of subsequent subdivision activity. The sensitivity analysis suggests that this relationship is robust to changes in how the priming effect measure is specified and declines with distance. This corroborates previous assumptions that major residential subdivisions drive land conversion. Takeaway for Practice: These results suggest that the project review process should consider impacts at a broader scale. Large residential subdivisions warrant attention not only for their localized impacts on traffic, stormwater, schools, and emergency services, but also for the signals they communicate to the larger development community. We find the effects of converting land to residential use cumulate not only over space, but also over time. Thus, they should be examined within the context of existing land use plans as well as infrastructure and service-delivery capabilities. By understanding the factors that explain parcel subdivision events and considering their capacity to induce further residential development, planners and the communities they serve will be in a stronger position to manage growth. Research Support: None.

Comparing apples with apples: how different are recent residential development patterns in Portland and Charlotte?

This paper compares Portland in Oregon and Charlotte in North Carolina to determine if recent residential development patterns in each area are as different as their existing policy framework and regulations might suggest. Using spatial data sets from local sources, we first perform a cluster analysis to develop a typology of census block groups based on built‐environment characteristics. This derived typology is coupled with data on single‐family residential construction for both study areas to assess the degree of similarity. We find that Portland and Charlotte present very different residential development outcomes in recent years. More specifically, single‐family residential development has occurred most frequently in the inner‐ and middle‐ring suburbs in Portland and most heavily in the urban fringe areas in Charlotte. Potential explanations of the observed difference are offered.

An examination of electricity consumption patterns in manufactured housing units

For several decades, manufactured housing has been a crucial source of affordable housing, particularly for rural areas. However, electricity consumption per unit area and per capita are substantially higher for manufactured housing units relative to site built, single-family detached units. This article uses data from the federal Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) to examine patterns of electricity consumption in manufactured housing units over time and to draw comparisons with single-family detached housing units. Regression analysis is used to model annual electricity consumption for manufactured housing units in 1990 and 2005. Temporal trends in key predictors are discussed and contrasted with those for single-family detached units. Findings suggest that the most important predictors of electricity consumption are comparable across the housing types considered and that while manufactured housing units may be gaining in energy efficiency over time, consumption per unit area and per capita are increasing faster than in single-family detached units.

Annexation and Ethnicity in the American Midwest

Prior research has established race as a factor in annexation decisions in the American South; however, there is very little research that examines the influence of ethnicity on annexation patterns. We consider a sample of incorporated places and their adjacent unincorporated blocks in 10 midwestern states to understand the relationship of ethnicity to annexation and possible differences in the drivers of annexation in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan contexts. The determinants of annexation in the Midwest differ in nonmetropolitan areas with existing population pressure and factors associated with capturing future growth as key drivers. Ethnicity appears to play a limited role in understanding annexation in the Midwest, but only within the nonmetropolitan context.

Mapping vulnerability to extreme heat events: lessons from metropolitan Chicago

In this paper, we develop an approach for identifying the location of populations most vulnerable to extreme heat events and how those locations change over time. We scan the literature on measuring vulnerability, especially sensitivity and adaptive capacity of populations. We employ Census data for metropolitan Chicago for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010, and maximum likelihood factor analysis to derive an index and map the distribution of Census tracts where residents exhibit greater sensitivity and/or lower adaptive capacity to extreme heat. Our findings show a pattern of deconcentration and decentralization of these populations within the city and region over time, with gentrification and the suburbanization of poverty trends observed in many US metropolitan regions as possible contributing factors. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for planning efforts in the study area and offer suggestions for further research.

Spatially concentrated renovation activity and housing appreciation in the city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin

ABSTRACT This article examines the relationship between renovation activity and housing prices in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and whether the spatial distribution of renovation activity matters for housing appreciation. We hypothesize that the renovation of housing units is a spatially diffusive process and that proximity to renovated properties increases sale price, even after accounting for renovations to the property sold and neighborhood characteristics. By adopting a modeling approach that incorporates hedonic and repeat sales methods, we find strong evidence that proximity to renovation activity exerts a positive influence on housing appreciation and that this effect extends further in space than previously believed. Our findings lend support to policy interventions that are geographically targeted and suggest that cultivating clusters of renovated housing can be a valuable lever for neighborhood stabilization and revitalization. Though appreciation was more likely in tracts with a higher poverty rate, an analysis of annual sales volume data suggests that displacement of owner-occupier households as a result of gentrification was not widespread during the study period. However, further research to better understand spatially concentrated renovation activity as a potential contributor to the displacement of existing residents is needed.

A multilevel analysis of private-vehicle evacuation clearance times along the US Gulf Coast

This study uses multilevel regression analysis to examine the effect of social characteristics and the built environment on clearance time under an evacuation scenario. The primary unit of analysis is the US Census tract (N = 1660), nested within 31 incorporated places spanning five US states. The dependent variable is an estimate of clearance time in hours derived using network analysis techniques within a geographic information system. We find that tracts with a more peripheral location, more female residents, a higher proportion of Hispanic residents, and higher median household incomes are associated with higher clearance times, on average. Our research suggests the relationship between suburbanization and clearance time is complex and evolving, mediated by past investments in the built environment and shifting social conditions. In addition to facilitating the evacuation of areas with low access to personal vehicles, urban planners and emergency management officials should also consider how the degree of connectivity in the street network impacts congestion and clearance time.

Data Integration and Web Mapping for Extreme Heat Event Preparedness

Heat waves are occurring more frequently and contributing to more deaths. While the use of geographic information systems is widespread among emergency management and disaster response professionals, the incorporation of new geospatial data sources and tools has not proceeded at the same rate with significant differences across geographic contexts and types of hazards. This chapter highlights the growing danger posed by heat waves to the health and safety of urban residents and argues that new geospatial data sources and tools as well as enhanced data integration and data sharing offer a promising way forward in addressing this issue.