Bidya Binay Karak

The Waldmeier effect and the flux transport solar dynamo

We confirm that the evidence for the Waldmeier effect WE1 (the anticorrelation between rise times of sunspot cycles and their strengths) and the related effect WE2 (the correlation between rise rates of cycles and their strengths) is found in different kinds of sunspot data. We explore whether these effects can be explained theoretically on the basis of the flux transport dynamo models of sunspot cycles. Two sources of irregularities of sunspot cycles are included in our model: fluctuations in the poloidal field generation process and fluctuations in the meridional circulation. We find WE2 to be a robust result which is produced in different kinds of theoretical models for different sources of irregularities. The Waldmeier effect WE1, on the other hand, arises from fluctuations in the meridional circulation and is found only in the theoretical models with reasonably high turbulent diffusivity which ensures that the diffusion time is not more than a few years.

Importance of Meridional Circulation in Flux Transport Dynamo: The Possibility of a Maunder-like Grand Minimum

Meridional circulation is an important ingredient in flux transport dynamo models. We have studied its importance on the period, the amplitude of the solar cycle, and also in producing Maunder-like grand minima in these models. First, we model the periods of the last 23 sunspot cycles by varying the meridional circulation speed. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then we find that most of the cycle amplitudes also get modeled up to some extent when we model the periods. Next, we propose that at the beginning of the Maunder minimum the amplitude of meridional circulation dropped to a low value and then after a few years it increased again. Several independent studies also favor this assumption. With this assumption, a diffusion-dominated dynamo is able to reproduce many important features of the Maunder minimum remarkably well. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then a slower meridional circulation means that the poloidal field gets more time to diffuse during its transport through the convection zone, making the dynamo weaker. This consequence helps to model both the cycle amplitudes and the Maunder-like minima. We, however, fail to reproduce these results if the dynamo is in an advection-dominated regime.

IS A DEEP ONE-CELL MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION ESSENTIAL FOR THE FLUX TRANSPORT SOLAR DYNAMO?

The solar activity cycle is successfully modeled by the flux transport dynamo, in which the meridional circulation of the Sun plays an important role. Most of the kinematic dynamo simulations assume a one-cell structure of the meridional circulation within the convection zone, with the equatorward return flow at its bottom. In view of the recent claims that the return flow occurs at a much shallower depth, we explore whether a meridional circulation with such a shallow return flow can still retain the attractive features of the flux transport dynamo (such as a proper butterfly diagram, the proper phase relation between the toroidal and poloidal fields). We consider additional cells of the meridional circulation below the shallow return flow-both the case of multiple cells radially stacked above one another and the case of more complicated cell patterns. As long as there is an equatorward flow in low latitudes at the bottom of the convection zone, we find that the solar behavior is approximately reproduced. However, if there is either no flow or a poleward flow at the bottom of the convection zone, then we cannot reproduce solar behavior. On making the turbulent diffusivity low, we still find periodic behavior, although the period of the cycle becomes unrealistically large. In addition, with a low diffusivity, we do not get the observed correlation between the polar field at the sunspot minimum and the strength of the next cycle, which is reproduced when diffusivity is high. On introducing radially downward pumping, we get a more reasonable period and more solar-like behavior even with low diffusivity.

Origin of grand minima in Sunspot cycles

One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic isotopes ((14)C and (10)Be) indicated that there were about 27 grand minima in the last 11,000 yrs, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the question of how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. We assume that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation mechanism and in the meridional circulation produce irregularities of sunspot cycles. Taking these fluctuations to be Gaussian and estimating the values of important parameters from the data of the last 28 solar cycles, we show from our flux transport dynamo model that about 1-4% of the sunspot cycles may have conditions suitable for inducing grand minima.

Magnetically controlled stellar differential rotation near the transition from solar to anti-solar profiles

Late-type stars rotate differentially owing to anisotropic turbulence in their outer convection zones. The rotation is called solar-like (SL) when the equator rotates fastest and anti-solar (AS) otherwise. Hydrodynamic simulations show a transition from SL to AS rotation as the influence of rotation on convection is reduced, but the opposite transition occurs at a different point in the parameter space. The system is bistable, i.e., SL and AS rotation profiles can both be stable. We study the effect of a dynamo-generated magnetic field on the large-scale flows, particularly on the possibility of bistable behavior of differential rotation. We solve the hydromagnetic equations numerically in a rotating spherical shell for a set of different radiative conductivities controlling the relative importance of convection. In agreement with earlier findings, our models display SL rotation profiles when the rotational influence on convection is strong and a transition to AS when the rotational influence decreases. We find that dynamo-generated magnetic fields help to produce SL differential rotation compared to the hydrodynamic simulations. We do not observe any bistable states of differential rotation. In the AS cases we get coherent single-cell meridional circulation, whereas in SL cases we get multi-cellular patterns. In both cases, we obtain poleward circulation near the surface with a magnitude close to that observed in the Sun. Moreover, both differential rotation and meridional circulation have significant magnetic cycle-related variations that are similar in strength to those of the Sun. Purely hydrodynamic simulations of differential rotation and meridional circulation are shown to be of limited relevance as magnetic fields, self-consistently generated by dynamo action, significantly affect the flows.

TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY

Prediction of the Suns magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus. Yeates et al. have shown that the dynamical memory of the solar dynamo mechanism governs predictability, and this memory is different for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. By utilizing stochastically forced, kinematic dynamo simulations, we demonstrate that the inclusion of downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux reduces the memory of both advection- and diffusion-dominated solar dynamos to only one cycle; stronger pumping degrades this memory further. Thus, our results reconcile the diverging dynamo-model-based forecasts for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. We conclude that reliable predictions for the maximum of solar activity can be made only at the preceding minimum-allowing about five years of advance planning for space weather. For more accurate predictions, sequential data assimilation would be necessary in forecasting models to account for the Suns short memory.

Multiple dynamo modes as a mechanism for long-term solar activity variations

Context. Solar magnetic activity shows both smooth secular changes, such as the modern Grand Maximum, and quite abrupt drops that are denoted as grand minima, such as the Maunder Minimum. Direct nu ...

A dynamo model of magnetic activity in solar-like stars with different rotational velocities

We attempt to provide a quantitative theoretical explanation for the observations that Ca II H/K emission and X-ray emission from solar-like stars increase with decreasing Rossby number (i.e., with faster rotation). Assuming that these emissions are caused by magnetic cycles similar to the sunspot cycle, we construct flux transport dynamo models of 1M(circle dot) stars rotating with different rotation periods. We first compute the differential rotation and the meridional circulation inside these stars from a mean-field hydrodynamics model. Then these are substituted in our dynamo code to produce periodic solutions. We find that the dimensionless amplitude f(m) of the toroidal flux through the star increases with decreasing rotation period. The observational data can be matched if we assume the emissions to go as the power 3-4 of f(m). Assuming that the Babcock-Leighton mechanism saturates with increasing rotation, we can provide an explanation for the observed saturation of emission at low Rossby numbers. The main failure of our model is that it predicts an increase of the magnetic cycle period with increasing rotation rate, which is the opposite of what is found observationally. Much of our calculations are based on the assumption that the magnetic buoyancy makes the magnetic flux tubes rise radially from the bottom of the convection zone. Taking into account the fact that the Coriolis force diverts the magnetic flux tubes to rise parallel to the rotation axis in rapidly rotating stars, the results do not change qualitatively.

Studies of grand minima in sunspot cycles by using a flux transport solar dynamo model

We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultaneous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock–Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results: (a) fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; (b) both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; (c) distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; (d) the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock–Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an α-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this α-effect is suitably fine-tuned.

QUENCHING AND ANISOTROPY OF HYDROMAGNETIC TURBULENT TRANSPORT

Hydromagnetic turbulence affects the evolution of large-scale magnetic fields through mean-field effects like turbulent diffusion and the