Bikramjit Das

Conditioning on an extreme component: Model consistency with regular variation on cones

Multivariate extreme value theory assumes a multivariate domain of attraction condition for the distribution of a random vector necessitating that each component satisfies a marginal domain of attraction condition. [12] and [11] developed an approximation to the joint distribution of the random vector by conditioning that one of the components be extreme. Prior papers left unresolved the consistency of dierent models obtained by conditioning on dierent components being extreme and we provide understanding of this issue. We also clarify the relationship between these conditional distributions, multivariate extreme value theory, and standard regular variation on cones of the form [0,1] ◊ (0,1].

Detecting a conditional extreme value model

In classical extreme value theory probabilities of extreme events are estimated assuming all the components of a random vector to be in a domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. In contrast, the conditional extreme value model assumes a domain of attraction condition on a sub-collection of the components of a multivariate random vector. This model has been studied in Heffernan and Tawn (JRSS B 66(3):497–546, 2004), Heffernan and Resnick (Ann Appl Probab 17(2):537–571, 2007), and Das and Resnick (2009). In this paper we propose three statistics which act as tools to detect this model in a bivariate set-up. In addition, the proposed statistics also help to distinguish between two forms of the limit measure that is obtained in the model.

Living on the multi-dimensional edge: seeking hidden risks using regular variation

Multivariate regular variation plays a role in assessing tail risk in diverse applications such as finance, telecommunications, insurance, and environmental science. The classical theory, being based on an asymptotic model, sometimes leads to inaccurate and useless estimates of probabilities of joint tail regions. This problem can be partly ameliorated by using hidden regular variation (see Resnick (2002) and Mitra and Resnick (2011)). We offer a more flexible definition of hidden regular variation that provides improved risk estimates for a larger class of tail risk regions.

QQ Plots, Random Sets and Data from a Heavy Tailed Distribution

The QQ plot is a commonly used technique for informally deciding whether a univariate random sample of size n comes from a specified distribution F. The QQ plot graphs the sample quantiles against the theoretical quantiles of F and then a visual check is made to see whether or not the points are close to a straight line. For a location and scale family of distributions, the intercept and slope of the straight line provide estimates for the shift and scale parameters of the distribution respectively. Here we consider the set S n of points forming the QQ plot as a random closed set in ℝ2. We show that under certain regularity conditions on the distribution F,S n converges in probability to a closed, non-random set. In the heavy tailed case where 1 − F is a regularly varying function, a similar result can be shown, but a modification is necessary to provide a statistically sensible result since typically F is not completely known.

On robust tail index estimation for linear long‐memory processes

We consider robust estimation of the tail index α for linear long‐memory processes with i.i.d. innovations e following a symmetric α‐stable law (1

Weak limits for exploratory plots in the analysis of extremes

Exploratory data analysis is often used to test the goodness-of-fit of sample observations to specific target distributions. A few such graphical tools have been extensively used to detect subexponential or heavy-tailed behavior in observed data. In this paper we discuss asymptotic limit behavior of two such plotting tools: the quantile-quantile plot and the mean excess plot. The weak consistency of these plots to fixed limit sets in an appropriate topology of

Models with hidden regular variation: Generation and detection

\mathbb{R}^2

Risk contagion under regular variation and asymptotic tail independence

has been shown in Das and Resnick (Stoch. Models 24 (2008) 103-132) and Ghosh and Resnick (Stochastic Process. Appl. 120 (2010) 1492-1517). In this paper we find asymptotic distributional limits for these plots when the underlying distributions have regularly varying right-tails. As an application we construct confidence bounds around the plots which enable us to statistically test whether the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed or not.

Hidden regular variation under full and strong asymptotic dependence

We review the notions of multivariate regular variation (MRV) and hidden regular variation (HRV) for distributions of random vectors and then discuss methods for generating models exhibiting both properties concentrating on the non-negative orthant in dimension two. Furthermore we suggest diagnostic techniques that detect these properties in multivariate data and indicate when models exhibiting both MRV and HRV are plausible fits for the data. We illustrate our techniques on simulated data, as well as two real Internet data sets.

Diversification Benefits Under Multivariate Second Order Regular Variation

Risk contagion concerns any entity dealing with large scale risks. Suppose (X,Y) denotes a risk vector pertaining to two components in some system. A relevant measurement of risk contagion would be to quantify the amount of influence of high values of Y on X. This can be measured in a variety of ways. In this paper, we study two such measures: the quantity E[max(X-t,0)|Y > t] called Marginal Mean Excess (MME) as well as the related quantity E[X|Y > t] called Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES). Both quantities are indicators of risk contagion and useful in various applications ranging from finance, insurance and systemic risk to environmental and climate risk. We work under the assumptions of multivariate regular variation, hidden regular variation and asymptotic tail independence for the risk vector (X,Y). Many broad and useful model classes satisfy these assumptions. We present several examples and derive the asymptotic behavior of both MME and MES as the threshold t tends to infinity. We observe that although we assume asymptotic tail independence in the models, MME and MES converge to 1 under very general conditions; this reflects that the underlying weak dependence in the model still remains significant. Besides the consistency of the empirical estimators, we introduce an extrapolation method based on extreme value theory to estimate both MME and MES for high thresholds t where little data are available. We show that these estimators are consistent and illustrate our methodology in both simulated and real data sets.