Bill Walter Arnold

Deep Borehole Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste.

Preliminary evaluation of deep borehole disposal of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel indicates the potential for excellent long-term safety performance at costs competitive with mined repositories. Significant fluid flow through basement rock is prevented, in part, by low permeabilities, poorly connected transport pathways, and overburden self-sealing. Deep fluids also resist vertical movement because they are density stratified. Thermal hydrologic calculations estimate the thermal pulse from emplaced waste to be small (less than 20 C at 10 meters from the borehole, for less than a few hundred years), and to result in maximum total vertical fluid movement of ~100 m. Reducing conditions will sharply limit solubilities of most dose-critical radionuclides at depth, and high ionic strengths of deep fluids will prevent colloidal transport. For the bounding analysis of this report, waste is envisioned to be emplaced as fuel assemblies stacked inside drill casing that are lowered, and emplaced using off-theshelf oilfield and geothermal drilling techniques, into the lower 1-2 km portion of a vertical borehole ~ 45 cm in diameter and 3-5 km deep, followed by borehole sealing. Deep borehole disposal of radioactive waste in the United States would require modifications to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act and to applicable regulatory standards for long-term performance set by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR part 191) and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (10 CFR part 60). The performance analysis described here is based on the assumption that long-term standards for deep borehole disposal would be identical in the key regards to those prescribed for existing repositories (40 CFR part 197 and 10 CFR part 63).

The site-scale saturated zone flow model for Yucca Mountain: calibration of different conceptual models and their impact on flow paths

This paper presents several different conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient (LHG) region north of Yucca Mountain and describes the impact of those models on groundwater flow near the potential high-level repository site. The results are based on a numerical model of site-scale saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain. This model is used for performance assessment predictions of radionuclide transport and to guide future data collection and modeling activities. The numerical model is calibrated by matching available water level measurements using parameter estimation techniques, along with more informal comparisons of the model to hydrologic and geochemical information. The model software (hydrologic simulation code FEHM and parameter estimation software PEST) and model setup allows for efficient calibration of multiple conceptual models. Until now, the Large Hydraulic Gradient has been simulated using a low-permeability, east-west oriented feature, even though direct evidence for this feature is lacking. In addition to this model, we investigate and calibrate three additional conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient, all of which are based on a presumed zone of hydrothermal chemical alteration north of Yucca Mountain. After examining the heads and permeabilities obtained from the calibrated models, we present particle pathways from the potential repository that record differences in the predicted groundwater flow regime. The results show that Large Hydraulic Gradient can be represented with the alternate conceptual models that include the hydrothermally altered zone. The predicted pathways are mildly sensitive to the choice of the conceptual model and more sensitive to the quality of calibration in the vicinity on the repository. These differences are most likely due to different degrees of fit of model to data, and do not represent important differences in hydrologic conditions for the different conceptual models.

Radionuclide transport simulation and uncertainty analyses with the saturated-zone site-scale model at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Evaluation of radionuclide transport in the saturated zone (SZ) to the accessible environment is an important component of performance assessment for the proposed radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Simulations of radionuclide migration in the SZ have been performed using the calibrated three-dimensional (3-D) SZ site-scale flow and transport model. An innovative particle-tracking method was used to simulate transport that includes the processes of advection, dispersion, matrix diffusion, and sorption. The uncertainties in groundwater flow and radionuclide transport were quantitatively evaluated to develop uncertainty distributions for key model parameters, and multiple realizations of the SZ system were simulated using the SZ site-scale model. The results of multiple realizations of radionuclide transport indicate significant aggregate uncertainty in transport times through the SZ. The simulated radionuclide mass breakthrough curves in the SZ have been coupled with other components of the repository system in Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) analyses and constitute the means by which uncertainty in the SZ is incorporated into regulatory analyses. Regression analysis has been used to determine the sensitivity of radionuclide transport simulation results to the uncertainty of individual model input parameters. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that median radionuclide transport times were dominantly controlled by uncertainty in the specific discharge in the SZ, with sorption and retardation in the alluvium playing important roles for some radionuclides.

Transport modeling in performance assessments for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste.

This paper summarizes modeling of radionuclide transport in the unsaturated and saturated zone conducted between 1984 and 2008 to evaluate feasibility, viability, and assess compliance of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. One dimensional (1-D) transport for a single porosity media without lateral dispersion was solved in both the saturated zone (SZ) and unsaturated zone (UZ) for the first assessment in 1984 but progressed to a dual-porosity formulation for the UZ in the second assessment in 1991. By the time of the viability assessment, a dual-permeability transport formulation was used in the UZ. With the planned switch to a dose performance measure, individual dose from a drinking water pathway was evaluated for the third assessment in 1993 and from numerous pathways for the viability assessment in 1998 and thereafter. Stream tubes for transport in the SZ were initially developed manually but progressed to particle tracking in 1991. For the viability assessment, particle tracking was used to solve the transport equations in the 3-D UZ and SZ flow fields. To facilitate calculations, the convolution method was also used in the SZ for the viability assessment. For the site recommendation in 2001 and licensing compliance analysis in 2008, the 3-D transport results of the SZ were combined with 1-D transport results, which evaluated decay of radionuclides, in order to evaluate compliance with groundwater protection requirements. Uncertainty in flow within the unsaturated and saturated zone was generally important to explaining the spread in the individual dose performance measure.

The saturated zone at Yucca Mountain: An overview of the characterization and assessment of the saturated zone as a barrier to potential radionuclide migration

The US Department of Energy is pursuing Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for the development of a geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste, if the repository is able to meet applicable radiation protection standards established by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Effective performance of such a repository would rely on a number of natural and engineered barriers to isolate radioactive waste from the accessible environment. Groundwater beneath Yucca Mountain is the primary medium through which most radionuclides might move away from the potential repository. The saturated zone (SZ) system is expected to act as a natural barrier to this possible movement of radionuclides both by delaying their transport and by reducing their concentration before they reach the accessible environment. Information obtained from Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project activities is used to estimate groundwater flow rates through the site-scale SZ flow and transport model area and to constrain general conceptual models of groundwater flow in the site-scale area. The site-scale conceptual model is a synthesis of what is known about flow and transport processes at the scale required for total system performance assessment of the site. This knowledge builds on and is consistent with knowledge that has accumulated at the regional scale but is more detailed because more data are available at the site-scale level. The mathematical basis of the site-scale model and the associated numerical approaches are designed to assist in quantifying the uncertainty in the permeability of rocks in the geologic framework model and to represent accurately the flow and transport processes included in the site-scale conceptual model. Confidence in the results of the mathematical model was obtained by comparing calculated to observed hydraulic heads, estimated to measured permeabilities, and lateral flow rates calculated by the site-scale model to those calculated by the regional-scale flow model. In addition, it was confirmed that the flow paths leaving the region of the potential repository are consistent with those inferred from gradients of measured head and those independently inferred from water-chemistry data. The general approach of the site-scale SZ flow and transport model analysis is to calculate unit breakthrough curves for radionuclides at the interface between the SZ and the biosphere using the three-dimensional site-scale SZ flow and transport model. Uncertainties are explicitly incorporated into the site-scale SZ flow and transport abstractions through key parameters and conceptual models.

Modeling dispersion in three-dimensional heterogeneous fractured media at Yucca Mountain

Highly resolved numerical simulations are conducted to evaluate the longitudinal and transverse dispersivities proposed for use in the larger-scale Yucca Mountain saturated zone (SZ) site-scale model. Two different stochastic continuum models (SCM) that define the spatial variability of permeability are inferred from the observed fracture characteristics and the measured permeabilities. These models are created with a combination of indicator geostatistics and boolean simulation that allow for modeling different correlation lengths and anisotropy ratios at different permeability thresholds as well as the inclusion of large, high-permeability features. Longitudinal and transverse (horizontal and vertical) dispersion through the permeability realizations is evaluated for both distributed and focused source geometries using groundwater flow and streamline particle tracking. These numerical results are compared to behavior predicted by an analytical solution and to dispersivities estimated by an expert panel. Early time transport results are significantly non-Gaussian due to the strong heterogeneity of the fractured medium. At late times, travel distances of 23 correlation lengths, the longitudinal and transverse horizontal dispersivity results are well approximated by the analytical solution and the expert elicitation estimates. The calculated transverse vertical dispersivity values are smaller than those estimated from the analytical solution. Inclusion of high-permeability features of the same size as the model domain with a distributed planar source creates extreme values of the longitudinal and transverse horizontal dispersivity.

A probabilistic model and software tool for evaluating the long-term performance of landfill covers

Abstract A probabilistic model and software tool has been developed to assist in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. The software platform contains multiple modules that can be used to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models are integrated into a probabilistic total-system performance-assessment model within a drag-and-drop software platform. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses can be conducted that yield the following primary benefits: (1) quantification of uncertainty in the simulated performance metrics; (2) identification of parameters most important to performance; and (3) comparison of alternative designs to optimize cost and performance. A case study has been performed using the Monticello Mill Tailings Site in Utah to illustrate the important features and benefits of the modeling approach and software.

Assessing alternative conceptual models of fracture flow

Groundwater travel time (GWTT) calculations will play an important role in addressing site-suitability criteria for the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain,Nevada. In support of these calculations, Preliminary assessments of the candidate codes and models are presented in this report. A series of benchmark studies have been designed to address important aspects of modeling flow through fractured media representative of flow at Yucca Mountain. Three codes (DUAL, FEHMN, and TOUGH 2) are compared in these benchmark studies. DUAL is a single-phase, isothermal, two-dimensional flow simulator based on the dual mixed finite element method. FEHMN is a nonisothermal, multiphase, multidimensional simulator based primarily on the finite element method. TOUGH2 is anon isothermal, multiphase, multidimensional simulator based on the integral finite difference method. Alternative conceptual models of fracture flow consisting of the equivalent continuum model (ECM) and the dual permeability (DK) model are used in the different codes.

Modeling solute transport through saturated zone ground water at 10 km scale: Example from the Yucca Mountain license application

This paper presents a study of solute transport through ground water in the saturated zone and the resulting breakthrough curves (BTCs), using a field-scale numerical model that incorporates the processes of advection, dispersion, matrix diffusion in fractured volcanic formations, sorption, and colloid-facilitated transport. Such BTCs at compliance boundaries are often used as performance measures for a site. The example considered here is that of the saturated zone study prepared for the Yucca Mountain license application. The saturated zone at this site occurs partly in volcanic, fractured rock formations and partly in alluvial formations. This paper presents a description of the site and the ground water flow model, the development of the conceptual model of transport, model uncertainties, model validation, and the influence of uncertainty in input parameters on the downstream BTCs at the Yucca Mountain site.

Development of a Risk-Based Probabilistic Performance-Assessment Method for Long-Term Cover Systems - 2nd Edition

A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology has been developed to assist designers, regulators, and stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report describes the method, the software tools that were developed, and an example that illustrates the probabilistic performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon gas flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results from uncertainty analyses, sensitivity analyses, and alternative design comparisons are presented for each of the performance metrics. The benefits from this methodology include a quantification of uncertainty, the identification of parameters most important to performance (to prioritize site characterization and monitoring activities), and the ability to compare alternative designs using probabilistic evaluations of performance (for cost savings).