Bingxian Luo

Prediction of the AU, AL, and AE indices using solar wind parameters

An empirical model that predicts the AU index, a measure of the Earths east electrojet, derived from magnetometers in the Northern Hemisphere, is introduced together with an improved AL model which, combined with the AU model, produces an AE model. All models are based on solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and the solar F10.7 index for the years 1995 to 2001. The linear correlation coefficient (LC) between the 10 min averaged AU index and the model is 0.846 for the years 1995–2001. The LC for the updated AL model is 0.846, and using AE=AU−AL, the LC for the AE model is 0.888. The better LC of the AE model over AU and AL models is because AU and AL are better correlated than their errors. The models show that (1) solar ultraviolet intensity plays a significant role in auroral activity by changing the ionospheric conductivity and scale height. Increasing solar ultraviolet intensity increases the eastward electrojet as measured by AU but decreases the westward electrojet as measured by AL; (2) solar wind dynamic pressure also affects the auroral electrojet indices, although they are much more strongly dependent on the solar wind velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field; (3) AU and AL behave differently during geomagnetic storm main phases: AU, unlike AL, can drop to a small value during storms; (4) the longer averaged auroral electrojets indices can be predicted well but shorter timescale variations are less predictable.

On energetic electrons (>38 keV) in the central plasma sheet: Data analysis and modeling

The spatial distribution of >38 keV electron fluxes in the central plasma sheet (CPS) and the statistical relationship between the CPS electron fluxes and the upstream solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters are investigated quantitatively using measurements from the Geotail satellite (1998-2004) at geocentric radial distances of 9-30 RE in the night side. The measured electron fluxes increase with closer distance to the center of the neutral sheet, and exhibit clear dawn-dusk asymmetry, with the lowest fluxes at the dusk side and increasing toward the dawn side. The asymmetry persists along the Earths magnetotail region (at least to Geotails apogee of 30 RE during the period of interest). Both the individual case and the statistical analysis on the relationship between >38 keV CPS electron fluxes and solar wind and IMF properties show that larger (smaller) solar wind speed and southward (northward) IMF B(z) imposed on the magnetopause result in higher (lower) energetic electron fluxes in the CPS with a time delay of about 1 hour, while the influence of solar wind ion density on the energetic electrons fluxes is insignificant. Interestingly, the energetic electron fluxes at a given radial distance correlate better with IMF B(z) than with the solar wind speed. Based on these statistical analyses, an empirical model is developed for the first time to describe the 2-D distribution (along and across the Earths magnetotail) of the energetic electron fluxes (>38 keV) in the CPS, as a function of the upstream solar wind and IMF parameters. The model reproduces the observed energetic electron fluxes well, with a correlation coefficient R equal to 0.86. Taking advantage of the time delay, full spatial distribution of energetic electron fluxes in the CPS can be predicted about 2 hours in advance using the real-time solar wind and IMF measurements at the L1 point: 1 hour for the solar wind to propagate to the magnetopause and a 1 hour delay for the best correlation. Such a prediction helps us to determine whether there are enough electrons in the CPS available to be transported inward to enhance the outer electron radiation belt.

Comparison of energetic electron flux and phase space density in the magnetosheath and in the magnetosphere

Whether energetic electrons (10s of keV) in the magnetosheath can be directly transported into the magnetosphere and further energized through radial diffusion is significant in understanding the physical mechanisms for producing the radiation belt electrons (>100s of keV) in the magnetosphere. In this study, we analyze more than two hundred magnetopause crossing events using the energetic electron and magnetic field measurements from Geotail and compare the flux and phase space density (PSD) of the energetic electrons on both sides of the magnetopause. It is found that for most of the events (>70%), the fluxes and PSDs of energetic electrons in the magnetosheath are less than those in the magnetosphere, suggesting that the energetic electrons in the magnetosheath cannot be a direct source sufficient for the energetic electrons inside the magnetosphere. In fact, our analysis suggests a possible leakage of the energetic electrons from inside to outside the magnetopause. By investigating the average energetic electron flux distribution in the magnetosheath, we find that the energetic electron fluxes are higher near the bow shock and the magnetopause than in between. The high energetic electron flux near the bow shock can be understood as due to energization of electrons when they go through the bow shock. The relatively low flux of the energetic electrons in between indicates that it is difficult for the energetic electrons to travel from the bow shock to the magnetopause and vice versa, possibly because the energetic electrons near the bow shock and the magnetopause are all on open magnetic field lines and these two relatively intense energetic electron populations in the magnetosheath rarely get mixed.

Why the Shock-ICME Complex Structure Is Important: Learning from the Early 2017 September CMEs

In the early days of 2017 September, an exceptionally energetic solar active region AR12673 aroused great interest in the solar physics community. It produced four X class flares, more than 20 CMEs and an intense geomagnetic storm, for which the peak value of the Dst index reached up to -142nT at 2017 September 8 02:00 UT. In this work, we check the interplanetary and solar source of this intense geomagnetic storm. We find that this geomagnetic storm was mainly caused by a shock-ICME complex structure, which was formed by a shock driven by the 2017 September 6 CME propagating into a previous ICME which was the interplanetary counterpart of the 2017 September 4 CME. To better understand the role of this structure, we conduct the quantitative analysis about the enhancement of ICMEs geoeffectiveness induced by the shock compression. The analysis shows that the shock compression enhanced the intensity of this geomagnetic storm by a factor of two. Without shock compression, there would be only a moderate geomagnetic storm with a peak Dst value of -79 nT. In addition, the analysis of the proton flux signature inside the shock-ICME complex structure shows that this structure also enhanced the solar energetic particles (SEPs) intensity by a factor of ~ 5. These findings illustrate that the shock-ICME complex structure is a very important factor in solar physics study and space weather forecast.