Birendra Bajracharya

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Sagarmatha Region

Abstract Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are common natural hazards in the Himalaya. These floods, usually of large magnitude, can severely affect fragile mountain ecosystems and their limited economic activities. In this study, GLOF hazard in the Sagarmatha region (national park and buffer zone) was assessed using dam break and hydrodynamic modeling. The available data from the Dig Tsho GLOF of 1985 were used to validate many of the model outputs. The technique was further applied to GLOF hazard assessment of Imja Lake, the largest and potentially most dangerous glacial lake in the region. The peak outflow discharge of an Imja GLOF is estimated at 5463 m3/s. The peak discharge attenuates to about 2000 m3/s at the boundary of the buffer zone at about 45 km from the outburst site. Finally, a GLOF vulnerability rating map was prepared and an assessment of vulnerable settlements was carried out. The study was found to be a cost-effective means of obtaining preliminary information on the extent and impact of possible GLOF events—information that is useful for developing plans for early warning systems and implementing management plans.

Development of 2010 national land cover database for the Nepal

Land cover and its change analysis across the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is realized as an urgent need to support diverse issues of environmental conservation. This study presents the first and most complete national land cover database of Nepal prepared using public domain Landsat TM data of 2010 and replicable methodology. The study estimated that 39.1% of Nepal is covered by forests and 29.83% by agriculture. Patch and edge forests constituting 23.4% of national forest cover revealed proximate biotic interferences over the forests. Core forests constituted 79.3% of forests of Protected areas where as 63% of area was under core forests in the outside protected area. Physiographic regions wise forest fragmentation analysis revealed specific conservation requirements for productive hill and mid mountain regions. Comparative analysis with Landsat TM based global land cover product showed difference of the order of 30-60% among different land cover classes stressing the need for significant improvements for national level adoption. The online web based land cover validation tool is developed for continual improvement of land cover product. The potential use of the data set for national and regional level sustainable land use planning strategies and meeting several global commitments also highlighted.

Developing Forested Conservation Corridors in the Kangchenjunga Landscape, Eastern Himalaya

Abstract The Kangchenjunga landscape in the trans-boundary region of Nepal, Bhutan, and India has rich forest resources offering a wide range of ecosystem services to local people and habitats for many rare plant and animal species. Despite conservation efforts in several fragmented protected areas in the past, forest ecosystems and their multiple functions have been affected by over-extraction of resources, haphazard land use practices, intensive agriculture, overgrazing, unmanaged tourism, and unplanned infrastructure development. We describe a multi-level and multi-stakeholder transboundary process initiated in 2002 with the overall objective of restoring fragmented and deteriorating forest resources through development of conservation corridors and adaptation of conservation measures, moving from a species approach to a landscape approach. In collaboration with governmental and non-governmental organizations, academics, and communities, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has been addressing the conservation issue by promoting participatory reforestation and transboundary collaboration, and linking conservation with sustainable use of resources by local communities.

Understanding Land Cover Change Using a Harmonized Classification System in the Himalaya A Case Study From Sagarmatha National Park, Nepal

Abstract Land cover assessment and monitoring of land cover dynamics are important to understand social and ecological processes in mountain protected areas. However, variations in the use of legends and classification systems sometimes pose challenges. The landscape of Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (SNPBZ) has seen many changes in the past few decades. Mapping of land cover in SNPBZ was carried out to fill gaps in basic databases for the area. A review of past land cover initiatives and existing data revealed differences in methodologies and definitions that made them incompatible for cross-region applications. For the present study, a legend was developed using the standard Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) methodology developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, a comprehensive and standardized a priori classification system designed for mapping exercises independent of scales or means. The changes in land cover were analyzed using Landsat Thematic Mapper, Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer images from 1992 to 2006. Land cover maps were generated using object-based image analysis supplemented by ancillary information. Extensive fieldwork was carried out for ground truthing and validation. The use of LCCS was instrumental in bringing general understanding of the classification systems and helping to gain greater clarity and accuracy in the results. About 70% of the SNPBZ area is covered by snow and ice, glaciers, bare rocks, and bare soil. Altitude and its influence on climatic conditions have dominated the distribution pattern of vegetation in SNPBZ. The analysis showed that forest is being converted into shrub at elevations between 3000 and 4000 m, while shrub is decreasing between 4000 and 5000 m. A major decrease in snow cover is seen above 5000 m. Harmonization of the classification system helped to gain more reliable information on changes, as comparisons were made between the classes with consistent definitions.

Improving Communication for Management of Social-ecological Systems in High Mountain Areas: Development of Methodologies and Tools—The HKKH Partnership Project

Abstract The planning and sustainable management of complex social-ecological systems (SESs) in high mountain areas such as the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKKH) region requires an approach that takes account of both environmental issues and local population needs. The HKKH Partnership Project developed methodologies and tools for systemic planning and management of social-ecological systems at local, regional, and national levels in the HKKH region, with a special focus on 3 protected areas in Nepal, Pakistan, and China. The adopted approach brought together researchers, policy-makers, and managers; it bridged the gap between research and management priorities and enabled communication to address the needs of communities while promoting conservation. Lessons learned are described and conclusions made on appropriate methods for the management of SESs in other regions.

Mapping Deforestation and Forest Degradation Patterns in Western Himalaya, Pakistan

The Himalayan mountain forest ecosystem has been degrading since the British ruled the area in the 1850s. Local understanding of the patterns and processes of degradation is desperately required to devise management strategies to halt this degradation and provide long-term sustainability. This work comprises a satellite image based study in combination with national expert validation to generate sub-district level statistics for forest cover over the Western Himalaya, Pakistan, which accounts for approximately 67% of the total forest cover of the country. The time series of forest cover maps (1990, 2000, 2010) reveal extensive deforestation in the area. Indeed, approximately 170,684 ha of forest has been lost, which amounts to 0.38% per year clear cut or severely degraded during the last 20 years. A significant increase in the rate of deforestation is observed in the second half of the study period, where much of the loss occurs at the western borders along with Afghanistan. The current study is the first systematic and comprehensive effort to map changes to forest cover in Northern Pakistan. Deforestation hotspots identified at the sub-district level provide important insight into deforestation patterns, which may facilitate the development of appropriate forest conservation and management strategies in the country.

An Integrated Decision Support Toolbox (DST) for the Management of Mountain Protected Areas

Abstract New tools and methodologies are required in systemic planning and management of mountain protected areas. Among others we propose here a decision support toolbox (DST) conceived as an integrated collection of both soft and hard system methodologies, consisting of participatory and computer-based modules to provide a set of integrated, self-contained tools and approaches to support decision-making processes in the management of mountain protected areas. The Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (SNPBZ) in Nepal was taken as a pilot case. A number of participatory exercises such as participatory 3-dimensional modeling, scenario planning, and qualitative modeling were carried out to understand social-ecological processes and generate a systemic view over space and time. The qualitative models were then converted into computer-based system dynamics models. The design and development of DST software were carried out with an incremental and modular approach. This process involved stakeholder analysis and decision-making processes through a series of consultations. The software was developed with the main modules including scenario analysis, spatial analysis, and knowledge base. The scenario analysis module runs system dynamics models built in Simile software and provides functions to link them with spatial data for model inputs and outputs. The spatial analysis module provides the basic geographic information system functions to explore, edit, analyze, and visualize spatial information. The knowledge base module was developed as a metadata management system for different categories of information such as spatial data, bibliography, research data, and models. The development of DST software, especially system dynamics modeling and its linkage with spatial components, provided an important methodological approach for spatial and temporal integration. Furthermore, training and interactions with park managers and concerned stakeholders showed that DST is a useful platform for integrating data and information and better understanding ecosystem behavior as a basis for management decisions.

Understanding forest fire patterns and risk in Nepal using remote sensing, geographic information system and historical fire data

Forest fire is one of the key drivers of forest degradation in Nepal. Most of the forest fires are human-induced and occur during the dry season, with ~89% occurring in March, April and May. The inaccessible mountainous terrain and narrow time window of occurrence complicate suppression efforts. In this paper, forest fire patterns are analysed based on historical fire incidence data to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of forest fires in Nepal. Three main factors are involved in the ignition and spread of forest fires, namely fuel availability, temperature and ignition potential. Using these factors a spatially distributed fire risk index was calculated for Nepal based on a linear model using weights and ratings. The input parameters for the risk assessment model were generated using remote sensing based land cover, temperature and active fire data, and topographic data. A relative risk ranking was also calculated for districts and village development committees (VDCs). In total, 18 out of 75 districts were found with high risk of forest fires. The district and VDC level fire risk ranking could be utilised by the Department of Forest for prioritisation, preparedness and resource allocation for fire control and mitigation.

Reform Earth Observation Science and Applications to Transform Hindu Kush Himalayan Livelihoods—Services-Based Vision 2030

The Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) region with 210 million people living in the region poses significant scientific and technological challenges for livelihood improvement due to subsistence economy, livelihood insecurity, poverty, and climate change. The inaccessibility and complex mountain environmental settings carved special niche for Earth Observation (EO) science and significant contributions were made in the food security and disaster risk reduction sectors. The differentiated capacities of users to develop and use EO capabilities, challenges in outreaching the EO products to last mile users call for innovative ways of packaging EO products into actionable knowledge and services. This calls for great degree of reformation on EO community to tailor-made region specific EO sensors and models, mechanisms of synergizing EO knowledge with local traditional systems in addressing multiscale, and integrated end-to-end solutions. The paper addresses prospects and challenges of 2015–2030 to achieve success in three critical livelihood support themes viz food security, floods, and forest-based carbon mitigation. Different improvements in EO sensor and models to extend less than a day, all-weather imaging, improved hydro-meteorological forecasts, vegetation stress, and community carbon monitoring models are identified as priority areas of improvement. We envisage and propose mechanisms on how these EO advances could amalgamate into Essential HKH Variables (EHVs) on the lines of global Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) to provide turnkey-based actionable knowledge and services through global and regional cooperation. The complex web of users and orienting them toward adoption of EO services through multi-tier awareness, expertise development, policy advocacy, and institutionalization is also discussed. The paper concludes that the EO community needs to reform significantly in blending their science and applications with user-driven, need-based domains to provide better societal services and HKH livelihood transformation.