Birger Solberg

Environmental and economic impacts of substitution between wood products and alternative materials: a review of micro-level analyses from Norway and Sweden

This article gives a state of the art overview on quantitative analyses from Norway and Sweden of Life cycle analyses (LCA), which compare the environmental impacts of substitution between wood and alternative materials, with emphasis on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, economics and methodological issues. In all studies referred to this overview, wood is a better alternative than other materials with regard to GHG emissions. Furthermore, wood is causing less emissions of SO2 and generates less waste compared to the alternative materials. Preservative treated wood, on the other hand, might have toxicological impacts on human health and ecosystems. Impacts on acidification, eutrofication and creation of photochemical ozone vary in different comparisons. Amount of greenhouse gases avoided due to substitution between wood and steel is in the range of 36–530 kg CO2-equivalents per m3 input of timber with 4% discount rate; depending on waste management of the materials, and how carbon fixation on forest land is included. This amount is 93–1062 kg CO2-equivalents for substitution between wood and concrete, if the wood is not landfilled after use. Many of the LCAs could be considerably improved, if the analyses were done with several alternative assumptions regarding boundaries of the system used in the LCA. This is important, not least to map what are the main assumptions for the results obtained and to compare with other studies. It is also important to consider the time-profile of the GHG emissions and other impacts over the life-cycle—it is surprising that this is not taken more seriously. Wood as a building material is competitive on price in those studies that include costs. It is a weak point of many LCAs that costs as well as other economic aspects influencing product substitution are not included, and a major research challenge is to combine traditional LCA with economic analysis in order to make both more policy relevant. In particular, one should develop dynamic input/output models where price and income substitutions as well as technological changes and cost components are included endogenously.

Economic impacts of accelerating forest growth in Europe

Abstract The global forest sector model EFI-GTM was applied to assess regional impacts in Europe of increased timber supply caused by potential acceleration of forest growth in Europe. The EFI-GTM is a multi-periodic partial equilibrium model, which contains 31 European regions and 30 regions for the rest of the world, and trade between the regions. The endogenous sectors include 26 forest industry products and six wood categories. Three alternative forest growth scenarios were analysed: a base line assuming the present annual rate of growth in the European countries, and two accelerating growth scenarios corresponding to a 20 and 40% increase after 20 years in the forest growth relative to the baseline growth. In the accelerated growth scenarios equilibrium prices for logs and sawnwood decreased significantly from the baseline levels, whereas the other forest product prices were not affected much. Depending on region and timber category, the log prices in 2020 were 7–9 and 13–17% lower than the base line prices in the medium and high forest growth scenarios, respectively. For sawnwood, the corresponding price decreases were 2 and 3.5–4.5%. In Western Europe, log harvest and sawnwood production increased because accelerated forest growth substituted for imports of these commodities from Russia and Eastern European countries. This decreased the harvests in Russia and Eastern Europe relative to the base case. In all the three forest growth scenarios the forest owners income as well as the forest industry profit increase over time.

Bioenergy from the forest sector: Economic potential and interactions with timber and forest products markets in Norway

Abstract A partial equilibrium forest sector model which is augmented to include bioenergy was applied to project the use of bioenergy based on forest fuels and forest industry by-products in Norway for three different scenarios of the future prices of electricity and oil. The impacts on forestry and forest industries of the different energy price scenarios were also studied. The advantage of the suggested methodology is that it allows for assessments of the economic potential of bioenergy, taking into account the competition for raw materials, the specific heat demand of various regions, and interregional and international trade. Bioenergy will, according to this study, be fairly competitive in some market segments with the current price levels of electricity and oil, and only a minor increase (decrease) in energy (roundwood) prices would release substantially increased bioenergy production levels. Pulpwood prices of pine and non-coniferous species are projected to increase substantially when assuming increasing energy prices. Except for particleboard mills, production levels of forest industries appeared relatively insensitive to the energy price changes.

Analysis of optimal economic management regimes for Picea abies stands using a stage‐structured optimal‐control model

A stage‐structured model for projecting stand growth and yield is coupled with a gradient‐based algorithm to determine optimal treatment regimes for Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.) plantations. The growth model forecasts the movement of trees between 3 cm diameter classes using a growth matrix that includes nonlinear equations for diameter growth. Because harvest treatments may be specified by tree diameter class, the model allows the determination of the optimal thinning timing, thinning intensity, and thinning type simultaneously with planting density and clearfelling age. The optimization model is used to determine treatment regimes with and without thinning for a wide range of values for economic and biological parameters. Results show that the optimal economic planting density is highly sensitive to interest rate, logging costs, planting costs and site class. For a given set of economic parameters, the optimal planting density is not sensitive to the number of thinnings performed or the thinning i...

Greenhouse gas emissions and costs over the life cycle of wood and alternative flooring materials

Increased use of wood can substitute more energy demanding products and thus contribute to a long-term solution to the global warming problem. The aim of this article is to provide an empirical study on this substitution impact, its cost-effectiveness, and which methodological assumptions that are of highest importance for the results obtained. We have made a case study where we compare use of various flooring materials. The results show that floor covering in solid oak causes lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than the other materials. The difference can be ranked in the following order, after their potential for reduction in GHG emissions: Carpet in wool, carpet in polyamide, vinyl, and linoleum. At 2% pro anno discount rate, the avoided GHG emission in tons per m3 of oak flooring used is 0.1–1.9 for linoleum, and 11.8–15.5 for wool carpets. Unless the solution in solid oak is on total less expensive over the lifetime of the building, only the price of avoided emissions from a substitution between solid oak and carpet in wool is reasonable, compared to present carbon fees. The assumptions that influence the result most are choice of discount rate, carbon fixation on forest area, and waste handling. Empirical case studies like this indicate GHG emission reduction potentials caused by substitution, but should be complemented by dynamic input/output analyses and econometric studies. To analyse the flow of CO2 over time, they should also be linked to forest management models.

The global timber market: implications of changes in economic growth, timber supply, and technological trends

Abstract A partial equilibrium model was applied to the global forest sector in order to assess regional and global impacts of changes in economic growth, timber supply potentials, and technical trends. The model uses recursive price-endogenous linear programming and deals with eight geographical regions and 16 products. The base line projections of the model gave an average annual increase in global supply of industrial roundwood of 1.2% until the year 2010. The real price of sawlogs and sawnwood was found to remain approximately constant, whereas the prices of pulpwood and particles increased significantly during the first years, and then declined after the year 2000. The real prices of pulp and paper increased less than those of pulpwood and particles. The assumed variations in GDP growth rates had limited influence on quantities supplied and traded due to restricted timber supply potentials, but affected the real prices, especially of pulpwood and particles. Changes in the assumed timber supply potentials and technical change affected the real prices of pulpwood and particles significantly. Introduction of a price responsive timber supply also dampened the price peaks of pulpwood. Possible improvements of the methodology include empirical estimation of timber supply and of key parameters that determine capacity expansion, trade inertia, and technical changes.

Climate change mitigation through increased wood use in the European construction sector—towards an integrated modelling framework

Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008–2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2–0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.

Bioenergy from mountain forest: a life cycle assessment of the Norwegian woody biomass supply chain

Abstract Norwegian mountain forests represent interesting sources of wood biomass for bioenergy. This case study gives a life cycle assessment of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs of forest management, harvest and transport operations in the mountainous areas of Hedmark and Oppland counties in Norway. Low-intensity forest management characterizes the study sites. The study shows that transportation to the terminal is the operation with the highest GHG impacts in the examined supply chain and that the bundling of forest residues has the highest financial cost. The mountain forest system analyzed emits 17,600 g CO2e per solid cubic meter over bark. Transportation to the terminal accounts for 31% of the emissions and 23% of the costs, while bundling accounts for 25% of the total emissions and 19% of the total costs. The study shows that there is a considerable quantity of woody biomass available for bioenergy purpose from mountain areas. In the short term, it is possible to integrate harvesting of logging residues in the conventional logging operations. However, it is necessary to improve forest management, logistic and technology for reducing emissions and operative costs, ensuring the achievement of a sustainable system at the same time.

Joint production and substitution in timber supply: a panel data analysis

Supply equations for sawlog and pulpwood were developed with a panel of data from 102 Norwegian municipalities, observed from 1980 to 2000. Static and dynamic models were estimated by cross-section, time-series andpanel data methods. A static model estimated by first differencing gavethe best overall results in terms of theoretical expectations, pattern ofresiduals, prediction accuracy and parsimony. The results showed thatsawlog supply responded positively to its own price (elasticity e = 0.91 ± 0.07) but negatively to the pulpwood price (e = −0.22 ± 0.06). The pulpwood supply responded positively to the price of both pulpwood (e = 0.53 ± 0.06) and sawlogs (e = 0.20 ± 0.07). Sawlog and pulpwood supply had a common elasticity of 2.04 (± 0.25) with respect to the growing stock, and of 0.30 (± 0.21) with respect to the interest rate. The supply elasticity of substitution of sawlog for pulpwood with respect to their relative price was 0.74 ± 0.04. Policies to raise the annual harvest, which is currently well below the annual growth, should focus on stimulating sawnwood production (thus increasing sawlog prices), because this would increase supply of both pulpwood and sawlogs. Instead, policies to stimulate pulpwood demand (thus increasing pulpwood prices), would give more pulpwood, but less sawlogs.

Potential impact of albedo incorporation in boreal forest sector climate change policy effectiveness

Forests have an important role to play in climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration and wood supply. However, the lower albedo of mature forests compared to bare land implies that focusing only on GHG accounting may lead to biased estimates of forestrys total climatic impacts. An economic model with a high degree of detail of the Norwegian forestry and forest industries is used to simulate GHG fluxes and albedo impacts for the next decades. Albedo is incorporated in a carbon tax/subsidy scheme in the Norwegian forest sector using a partial, spatial equilibrium model. While a price of EU€100/tCO2e that targets GHG fluxes only results in reduced harvests, the same price including albedo leads to harvest levels that are five times higher in the first five years, with 39% of the national productive forest land base being cleared. The results suggest that policies that only consider GHG fluxes and ignore changes in albedo will not lead to an optimal use of the forest sector for climate change mitigation. Policy relevance Bare land reflects a larger share of incoming solar energy than dense forest and thus has higher albedo. Earlier research has suggested that changes in albedo caused by management of boreal forest may be as important as carbon fluxes for the forests overall global warming impacts. The presented analysis is the first attempt to link albedo to national-scale forest climate policies. A policy with subsidies to forest owners that generate carbon sequestration and taxes levied on carbon emissions leads to a reduced forest harvest. However, including albedo in the policy alongside carbon fluxes yields very different results, causing initial harvest levels to increase substantially. The inclusion of albedo impacts will make harvests more beneficial for climate change mitigation as compared to a carbon-only policy. Hence, it is likely that carbon policies that ignore albedo will not lead to optimal forest management for climate change mitigation.