Birger Tinz

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale

Background: The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. Objective: To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. Design: The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the ‘Perceived Temperature’ procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. Results: The global maps 1971–1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm–humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041–2050 based on the ‘business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the worlds population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. Conclusions: This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial.

Signal Stations: Newly Digitized Historical Climate Data of the German Bight and the Southern Baltic Sea Coast

AbstractAt the German Meteorological Service in Hamburg, handwritten journals of meteorological observation data of 164 signal stations exist that were digitized. These data contain long-term time series of up to 125 years for the period 1877–1999 and allow for studies of regional meteorological conditions with greatly improved spatial resolution. Wind and air pressure data of selected signal stations along the German Bight and the southern Baltic Sea coast show a spatial data homogeneity that allows for an improved description of two historical storms, in 1906 and 1913. This is the first presentation of signal station data.

Identification of extreme storm surges with high-impact potential along the German North Sea coastline

Planning and design of coastal protection rely on information about the probabilities of very severe storm tides and the possible changes that may occur in the course of climate change. So far, this information is mostly provided in the form of high percentiles obtained from frequency distributions or return values. More detailed information and assessments of events that may cause extreme damages or have extreme consequences at the coast are so far still unavailable. We describe and compare two different approaches that may be used to identify highly unlikely but still physically possible and plausible events from model simulations. Firstly, in the case when consistent wind and tide-surge data are available, different metrics such as the height of the storm surge can be derived directly from the simulated water levels. Secondly, in cases where only atmospheric data are available, the so called effective wind may be used. The latter is the projection of the horizontal wind vector on that direction which is most effective in producing surges at the coast. Comparison of events identified by both methods show that they can identify extreme events but that knowledge of the effective wind alone does not provide sufficient information to identify the highest storm surges. Tracks of the low-pressure systems over the North Sea need to be investigated to find those cases, where the duration of the high wind is too short to induce extreme storm tides. On the other hand, factors such as external surges or variability in mean sea level may enhance surge heights and are not accounted for in estimates based on effective winds only. Results from the analysis of an extended data set suggest that unprecedented storm surges at the German North Sea coast are possible even without taking effects from rising mean sea level into account. The work presented is part of the ongoing project “Extreme North Sea Storm Surges and Their Consequences” (EXTREMENESS) and represents the first step towards an impact assessment for very severe storm surges which will serve as a basis for development of adaptation options and evaluation criteria.

Klima der Region – Zustand, bisherige Entwicklung und mögliche Änderungen bis 2100

Das Fachwissen zum Klima in der Metropolregion Hamburg (MRH) und seinen Anderungen wurde bis 2008 ausfuhrlich im „Klimabericht fur die Metropolregion Hamburg“ dokumentiert (Rosenhagen und Schatzmann 2011; Daschkeit 2011). Im Jahr 2013 haben die Leitautoren im Rahmen einer Aktualisierung des Klimaberichtes bzgl. dieses Themenfeldes auf das BMBF‐Projekt KLIMZUG‐NORD und das Hamburger Exzellenzcluster CliSAP sowie erste daraus entstandene Arbeiten verwiesen (Rosenhagen 2013), die sich vielfach auf das Stadtklima Hamburgs beziehen (vgl. Kap. 3). Inzwischen stehen fur weitere Regionen in Norddeutschland Ergebnisse aus verschiedenen Forschungsprojekten wie KLIWAS (Bulow et al. 2014), KLIFF (Moseley et al. 2012), KLIMZUG‐NORD (Rechid et al. 2014b, 2014c) und RADOST (Martinez und Blobel 2015) zur Verfugung. Zudem sind seit 2013 weitere Fachartikel erschienen, die das Klima und den Klimawandel in der Region thematisieren. Bezuglich der Veroffentlichungen ist insbesondere der 2015 veroffentlichte Klimabericht fur den Ostseeraum (BACC II Author Team 2015) zu nennen, der ahnlich wie der Hamburger Klimabericht (HKB) den Stand des Wissens zum regionalen Klima sowie dessen zeitliche Veranderungen und Folgen fur den Ostseeraum dokumentiert. Zudem wurden neben neuen Fachartikeln webbasierte Informationsangebote entwickelt, die das Klima und den Klimawandel in der Region thematisieren (Tab. 2.1).

The KLIWAS North Sea Climatology. Part II: Assessment against Global Reanalyses

AbstractObservational reference datasets are needed in atmosphere and ocean for quality assessments of climate models and for the evaluation of atmospheric reanalyses. To meet this demand on the regional scale, the Climate Water Navigation (KLIWAS) North Sea climatology (KNSC) was developed. This paper uses KNSC to assess the quality of five atmospheric reanalysis products [ERA-40; ERA-Interim; NCEP-1; 20CR, version 2 (20CRv2); and MERRA] over the North Sea from 1979 to 2001. Differences in sea level pressure (2-m air temperature) can be found in coastal regions for ERA-40/ERA-Interim and MERRA, and are more pronounced during positive (negative) phases of the NAO. 20CRv2 shows biases over the entire North Sea and all seasons of several hectopascals. ERA-40 and ERA-Interim show a negative 2-m air temperature bias relative to KNSC along the coastal mainland of Europe, especially during winter months, possibly a result of a remaining land influence. Mean differences result from winter and fall, mostly remain...

The KLIWAS North Sea Climatology. Part I: Processing of the Atmospheric Data

AbstractClimatological reference data serve as validation of regional climate models, as the boundary condition for the model runs, and as input for assimilation systems used by reanalyses. Within the framework of the interdisciplinary research program Climate Water Navigation (KLIWAS): Impacts of Climate Change on Waterways and Navigation of the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure, a new climatology of the North Sea and adjacent regions was developed in an joint effort by the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency, the German Weather Service [Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)], and the Integrated Climate Data Center (ICDC) of the University of Hamburg. Long-term records of monthly and annual mean 2-m air temperature, dewpoint temperature, and sea level pressure data from 1950 to 2010 were calculated on a horizontal 1° × 1° grid. All products were based on quality-controlled data from DWD’s Marine Data Centre. Correction methods were implemented for each parameter to reduce the sa...

Projected change - Atmosphere

Several aspects describing the state of the atmosphere in the North Sea region are considered in this chapter. These include large-scale circulation, means and extremes in temperature and precipitation, cyclones and winds, and radiation and clouds. The climate projections reveal several pronounced future changes in the state of the atmosphere in the North Sea region, both in the free atmosphere and near the surface: amplification and an eastward shift in the pattern of NAO variability in autumn and winter; changes in the storm track with increased cyclone density over western Europe in winter and reduced cyclone density on the southern flank in summer; more frequent strong winds from westerly directions and less frequent strong winds from south-easterly directions; marked mean warming of 1.7–3.2 °C for different scenarios, with stronger warming in winter than in summer and a relatively strong warming over southern Norway; more intense extremes in daily maximum temperature and reduced extremes in daily minimum temperature, both in strength and frequency; an increase in mean precipitation during the cold season and a reduction during the warm season; a pronounced increase in the intensity of heavy daily precipitation events, particularly in winter; a considerable increase in the intensity of extreme hourly precipitation in summer; an increase (decrease) in cloud cover in the northern (southern) part of the North Sea region, resulting in a decrease (increase) in net solar radiation at the surface.