Björn-Ola Linnér

Looking for Leaders: Perceptions of Climate Change Leadership among Climate Change Negotiation Participants

There is widespread consensus that effective leadership will be required in order to successfully address the climate change challenge. Presently there are a number of self-proclaimed climate change leaders, but leadership is a relationship between leaders and followers. An actor aspiring to be a leader needs to be recognized as such. Despite its fundamental importance for leadership relationships, the demand side of the leadership equation has been comparatively neglected by past research. In this study we are looking for leaders by analyzing the perceptions of climate change leadership among UNFCCC COP-14 participants. Our results show that the climate change leadership mantle will have to be worn by more than one actor. Among the leadership candidates the EU was most widely recognized as a leader, however, only a small minority reported that they saw the EU as the only leader. The data also show that the US and the G77 thus far have failed to impress potential followers and it was China that clearly emerged as the second strongest leadership candidate.

Functions of COP side-events in climate-change governance

Side-events are the most visible venue for civil society involvement in international climate negotiations. The many varied functions that side-events fulfil for participants and organizers are identified and analysed for their contributions generally as well as for their contribution to the negotiation process. The analysis is based on two surveys of over 2,000 side-event participants and organizers at COP-13 and COP-14. The surveyed side-events were found to fulfil the broader official objective of benefiting COP participants through providing a shared conceptual basis as well as building institutional capacity and legitimacy. All participant groups, particularly from Africa, G77, and less-developed countries, found these events useful for their work. As a venue for information dissemination, side-events provide an important opportunity for capacity building. Historically, new items were introduced at COP side-events before being discussed in the formal negotiations. Side-events also provide a process for creating a shared vision. By providing a forum that includes more organizations and actors in conjunction with the negotiations, side-events have the potential to increase the input legitimacy of the international policy process. A significant challenge will be the inclusion of a wider range of stakeholder groups and geographical, socioeconomic and epistemic communities, in order to avoid favouring the hegemony of NGOs and other organisations based in industrialized countries, as well as Annex 1 Parties.

The roles of non-state actors in climate change governance: understanding agency through governance profiles

Globalization processes have rendered non-state actors an integral part of global governance. The body of literature that has examined non-state actor involvement in global governance has focused mainly on whether and how non-state actors can influence states. Less attention has been paid to the comparative advantages of non-state actors to answer questions about agency across categories of non-state actors, and more precisely what governance activities non-state actors are perceived to fulfil. Using unique survey material from two climate change conferences, we propose that different categories of non-state actors have distinct governance profiles. We further suggest that the different governance profiles are derived from particular power sources and that agency is a function of these profiles. The study thereby contributes to a strand in the literature focusing on the authority of non-state actors in climate governance and broadens the methodological toolkit for studying the “governors” of global governance.

Towards a living earth simulator

Abstract The Living Earth Simulator (LES) is one of the core components of the FuturICT architecture. It will work as a federation of methods, tools, techniques and facilities supporting all of the FuturICT simulation-related activities to allow and encourage interactive exploration and understanding of societal issues. Society-relevant problems will be targeted by leaning on approaches based on complex systems theories and data science in tight interaction with the other components of FuturICT. The LES will evaluate and provide answers to real-world questions by taking into account multiple scenarios. It will build on present approaches such as agent-based simulation and modeling, multiscale modelling, statistical inference, and data mining, moving beyond disciplinary borders to achieve a new perspective on complex social systems. Graphical abstract

From Stockholm to Kyoto and beyond: A review of the globalization of global warming policy and North–South relations

Abstract This paper provides a historical overview of the role of North–South differences in expectation and priorities in determining how international negotiations about global warming have been framed and implemented. Our analysis looks at two themes: the problem of technology transfer and knowledge inequity and the persistence of the G-77 as the point of departure for Southern action within the context of environmental negotiations. Our argument is that the North and South remain divided on the consequences of linking environment and development for future policy on conserving the global commons. In particular, the problem of accepting the burden of readjustment appears to be politically unacceptable to both North and South.

Fragmented climate change leadership: making sense of the ambiguous outcome of COP-15

This article utilises a leadership perspective to analyse the ambiguous outcome of the 2009 UN climate summit in Copenhagen (COP-15). Considering follower perspectives and using survey data gives a fuller picture of the importance of leadership in international negotiations and of the role played by leadership the COP-15. In addition to the insights generated concerning the dynamics that led to the Copenhagen Accord, we contribute to the scholarship by illustrating the importance of an analytical framework that incorporates the demand and supply sides of leadership, the interplay of leadership visions and forms, and the fit between these elements. The implications for future UNFCCC climate negotiations are considered.

The Legitimacy of Leadership in International Climate Change Negotiations

Leadership is an essential ingredient in reaching international agreements and overcoming the collective action problems associated with responding to climate change. In this study, we aim at answering two questions that are crucial for understanding the legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations. Based on the responses of three consecutive surveys distributed at COPs 14–16, we seek first to chart which actors are actually recognized as leaders by climate change negotiation participants. Second, we aim to explain what motivates COP participants to support different actors as leaders. Both these questions are indeed crucial for understanding the role, importance, and legitimacy of leadership in the international climate change regime. Our results show that the leadership landscape in this issue area is fragmented, with no one clear-cut leader, and strongly suggest that it is imperative for any actor seeking recognition as climate change leader to be perceived as being devoted to promoting the common good.

Technology obscuring equity: historical responsibility in UNFCCC negotiations

According to the concept of historical responsibility, the commitments of individual countries to take action on climate change are distributed based on the relative effects of their past emissions as manifested in present climate change. Brazil presented a comprehensive version of the concept to pre-Kyoto negotiations in 1997. The ‘Brazilian proposal’ originally combined several justice principles; however, following referral to the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, discussion soon became confined to technical calculations. This case illustrates how disparities in knowledge production and framing can influence the inclusiveness of negotiations. Southern participation in the policy process was restrained due to lack of scientific expertise on the part of Southern countries and due to the non-inclusive biophysical discourse traditionally preferred by Northern policy-makers. The historical responsibility issue became stranded on problems of how to correctly represent physical nature in climate models. This marginalized the original intention that equity should be the guiding principle of the North—South interaction, arguably undercutting a potential angle of approach to advance the climate change negotiations. The article concludes that in the interest of facilitating the North—South dialogue in climate change negotiations, any framing of historical responsibility that excludes equity needs to be redefined.

The political economy of climate change adaptation

Drawing on concepts in political economy, political ecology, justice theory, and critical development studies, the authors offer the first comprehensive, systematic exploration of the ways in which adaptation projects can produce unintended, undesirable results.

Method Development for Identifying and Analysing Stakeholders in Climate Change Adaptation Processes

It is now widely recognized that stakeholder interaction and dialogue is essential to improve decisions about and awareness of climate change. The term ‘stakeholder’ is broad and researchers and practitioners may have interrelated and contrasting views on who is a stakeholder or who is (or should be) responsible for adaptation to climate change. To engage stakeholders in research or other projects on adaptation thus requires a careful mapping of the stakeholder landscape and identification of relevant actors at different levels. Through a case study approach, based on studies of two Swedish urban regions, Stockholm and Gothenburg, this paper proposes a systematic method to analyse and identify roles and responsibilities in the stakeholder landscape. The initial mapping exercise was complemented by participatory studies of local and regional stakeholders’ perceptions of who is, or should be, involved in adaptation and their significance for climate change adaptation in the respective regions. The results indicate the value of careful stakeholder analysis for sustainable, effective, planned adaptation that is flexible, but also systematic enough to fulfil practical and scientific requirements for the study and advancement of ongoing adaptation processes and implementation.