Blas M. Benito

Assessing extinction-risk of endangered plants using species distribution models: a case study of habitat depletion caused by the spread of greenhouses

The species distribution models (SDMs) are useful tools for investigating rare and endangered species as well as the environmental variables affecting them. In this paper, we propose the application of SDMs to assess the extinction-risk of plant species in relation to the spread of greenhouses in a Mediterranean landscape, where habitat depletion is one of the main causes of biodiversity loss. For this purpose, presence records of the model species (Linaria nigricans, a endemic and threatened species) and the greenhouses, a dataset of environmental variables, and different only presence-based modelling algorithms (Bioclim, Domain, GARP, MaxEnt and ENFA) were used to build SDMs for L. nigricans as well as for greenhouses. To evaluate the models a modified approach of the area-under-curve ROC was applied. Combining the most accurate models, we generated an extinction-risk model of L. nigricans populations, which enabled us to assess the sustainability of the most threatened populations. Our results show that is possible to model greenhouses spreading as a “biological invasion”. The procedure explained and used in this work is quite novel, and offers an objective spatial criterion intended for the management of natural resources and for the conservation of the biodiversity in areas threatened by habitat depletion processes as particular as greenhouses expansion.

A 2.5‐million‐year perspective on coarse‐filter strategies for conserving nature's stage

Climate change will require novel conservation strategies. One such tactic is a coarse-filter approach that focuses on conserving natures stage (CNS) rather than the actors (individual species). However, there is a temporal mismatch between the long-term goals of conservation and the short-term nature of most ecological studies, which leaves many assumptions untested. Paleoecology provides a valuable perspective on coarse-filter strategies by marshaling the natural experiments of the past to contextualize extinction risk due to the emerging impacts of climate change and anthropogenic threats. We reviewed examples from the paleoecological record that highlight the strengths, opportunities, and caveats of a CNS approach. We focused on the near-time geological past of the Quaternary, during which species were subjected to widespread changes in climate and concomitant changes in the physical environment in general. Species experienced a range of individualistic responses to these changes, including community turnover and novel associations, extinction and speciation, range shifts, changes in local richness and evenness, and both equilibrium and disequilibrium responses. Due to the dynamic nature of species responses to Quaternary climate change, a coarse-filter strategy may be appropriate for many taxa because it can accommodate dynamic processes. However, conservationists should also consider that the persistence of landforms varies across space and time, which could have potential long-term consequences for geodiversity and thus biodiversity.

Spring predictability explains different leaf‐out strategies in the woody floras of North America, Europe and East Asia

Intuitively, interannual spring temperature variability (STV) should influence the leaf-out strategies of temperate zone woody species, with high winter chilling requirements in species from regions where spring warming varies greatly among years. We tested this hypothesis using experiments in 215 species and leaf-out monitoring in 1585 species from East Asia (EA), Europe (EU) and North America (NA). The results reveal that species from regions with high STV indeed have higher winter chilling requirements, and, when grown under the same conditions, leaf out later than related species from regions with lower STV. Since 1900, STV has been consistently higher in NA than in EU and EA, and under experimentally short winter conditions NA species required 84% more spring warming for bud break, EU ones 49% and EA ones only 1%. These previously unknown continental-scale differences in phenological strategies underscore the need for considering regional climate histories in global change models.

ModeleR: An enviromental model repository as knowledge base for experts

In this paper, we present the development of ModeleR, a repository of models accessible from the web, which enables the user to design, document, manage, and execute environmental models. The technique and features offered can be applied to any scientific context. Based on the development of its ontology, a metadata system has been established to document the modeling process. The set of models managed from ModeleR reflects the knowledge base of the experts of the system, allowing other experts to reuse, replicate, and delve deeper into the existing models in the repository. Different levels of integration have been included, from the conceptual description of the model to the process needed to execute a model from a remote server, acting as an execution engine through the use of workflow managers. In this paper, we present the problems encountered as well as the solutions reached on developing a prototype of ModeleR set up for ecosystem research and an environmental monitoring lab.

Conservation status of the first known population of Polygala balansae in Europe.

We studied the natural history as well as the conservation status of the first-known population of Polygala balansae in Europe (Granada, SE Spain). In the study area, we located only one population occupying a small patch of 1920 m2, between 120 and 160 m a.s.l., with 246 mature individuals. The species is classified as Critically Endangered (CR), under the following criteria: severely fragmented, inferred continuous decline, small population size, and continuing decline inferred from the number mature individuals. The main threats over the population are: spreading subtropical tree-crops and encroachment of human settlements for tourist purposes, plus natural causes (drought, wild or human-mediated fire, limited dispersal, poor recruitment/ reproduction/regeneration, high juvenile mortality, low densities and restricted range). Finally, passive and active conservation measures are proposed in order to guarantee the survival of the species.

Interdisciplinary Climate Change Collaborations Are Essential for Early‐Career Scientists

Climate change research is an interdisciplinary field, and understanding its social, political, and environmental implications requires integration across fields of research where different tools may be used to address common concerns [Baerwald, 2010]. One of the many advantages of interdisciplinary approaches is that they open communication between complementary fields, filling knowledge gaps and facilitating progression within both individual fields and the broader field of climate change research [Ludwig et al., 2011].

Documentación de modelos y flujos de trabajo: el siguiente reto en el manejo de información ecológica

Blanco, J.A. 2013. Modelos ecol??gicos: descripci??n, explicaci??n y predicci??n. Ecosistemas 22(3):1-5. Doi.: 10.7818/ECOS.2013.22-3.01.Caro-Moreno, D., Jimenez-Cantizano, F.A. 2013. Study of the concentration of toxic trace elements of sludge deposits, soils and plants in Mina La Solana, Almeria (Spain). Ecosistemas 22(3):101-110. Doi.: 10.7818/ECOS.2013.22-3.14. This work presents a study of the concentration of toxic trace elements in abandoned sludge deposits (tailings) by mining in Almeria (Spain), soils and plants that colonize and represent a way to incorporate those elements in the food chain. The old mining industry left a number of abandoned facilities in different parts of Andalusia, with tailings standing out. They were generated in the flotation process, and usually deposited and left on streambeds. Tailings composition vary depending on the type of ore and treatment additives, but usually the contents of heavy metals are high, because recovery was not very good in the mineral processing technique used in the early 20th century facilities. In this study we analyze the case of Mina La Solana tailings, located in Almocita (Almeria, SE Spain). We carried out a geochemical characterization of trace element content. Furthermore, we also studied the geochemical trace element content in plants that were rooted in the tailings. The results show that tailings have high Pb content (average concentration 6800 ppm) and Zn (average concentration 22 000 ppm). These elements are not mobile soluble fractions; leaching tests give very low concentration levels (≤ 10 ppm Pb and ≤ 2 ppm Zn) in water. We found high concentrations of the same elements in plants, with a value of up to 210 ppm Pb and 1300 ppm Zn. This demonstrates the ability of plants to alter the mobility of the elements present in the substrate where they are rooted and thus providing a transfer to the food chain through feeding species.

Potential changes in the distribution of Carnegiea gigantea under future scenarios

Over the last decades several studies have identified that the directional changes in climate induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are affecting the ecology of desert ecosystems. In the Southwest United States, the impacts of climate change to plant abundance and distribution have already been reported, including in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem, home of the iconic Saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea). Hence, there is an urgent need to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the saguaro. The goals of this study are to provide a map of actual habitat suitability (1), describe the relationships between abiotic predictors and the saguaro distribution at regional extents (2), and describe the potential effect of climate change on the spatial distribution of the saguaro (3). Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was used to investigate the relationships between abiotic variables and the Saguaro distribution. SDMs were calibrated using presence records, 2,000 randomly-generated pseudo absences, and ten abiotic variables. Of these, annual precipitation and max temperature of the warmest month was found to have the greatest relative influence on saguaro distribution. SDMs indicated that 6.9% and 8.1% of the current suitable habitat is predicted to be lost by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Therefore, predicted changes in climate may result in a substantial contraction of the suitable habitat for saguaro over the next century. By identifying the drivers of saguaro distribution and assessing potential changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, this study will help practitioners to design more comprehensive strategies to conserve the saguaro in the face of climate change.

Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling

Abstract Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50 years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold‐adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold‐adapted species may respond to future climate changes.