Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu

The Public Debt in Romania – Factors of Influence, Scenarios for the Future and a Sustainability Analysis Considering both a Finite and Infinite Time Horizon

Abstract This paper, starting from the public debt equations and the intertemporal budget constraint proposes an analysis of the evolution of public debt to GDP ratio in Romania during the 2002-2013 periods, identifying the main factors of influence and also performs a sustainability analysis on both a finite and infinite time horizon. Thus, the paper determines the gap to the level of primary balance consistent with debt sustainability under different scenarios and concludes that the current level of public indebtedness, alongside with the long term projections of the underlying factors of influence ensure the fulfillment of the obligations to the creditors.