Bokyung Choi

A Novel and Critical Role for Oct4 as a Regulator of the Maternal-Embryonic Transition

Background Compared to the emerging embryonic stem cell (ESC) gene network, little is known about the dynamic gene network that directs reprogramming in the early embryo. We hypothesized that Oct4, an ESC pluripotency regulator that is also highly expressed at the 1- to 2-cell stages in embryos, may be a critical regulator of the earliest gene network in the embryo. Methodology/Principal Findings Using antisense morpholino oligonucleotide (MO)-mediated gene knockdown, we show that Oct4 is required for development prior to the blastocyst stage. Specifically, Oct4 has a novel and critical role in regulating genes that encode transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulators as early as the 2-cell stage. Our data suggest that the key function of Oct4 may be to switch the developmental program from one that is predominantly regulated by post-transcriptional control to one that depends on the transcriptional network. Further, we propose to rank candidate genes quantitatively based on the inter-embryo variation in their differential expression in response to Oct4 knockdown. Of over 30 genes analyzed according to this proposed paradigm, Rest and Mta2, both of which have established pluripotency functions in ESCs, were found to be the most tightly regulated by Oct4 at the 2-cell stage. Conclusions/Significance We show that the Oct4-regulated gene set at the 1- to 2-cell stages of early embryo development is large and distinct from its established network in ESCs. Further, our experimental approach can be applied to dissect the gene regulatory network of Oct4 and other pluripotency regulators to deconstruct the dynamic developmental program in the early embryo.

Defining human embryo phenotypes by cohort-specific prognostic factors.

Background Hundreds of thousands of human embryos are cultured yearly at in vitro fertilization (IVF) centers worldwide, yet the vast majority fail to develop in culture or following transfer to the uterus. However, human embryo phenotypes have not been formally defined, and current criteria for embryo transfer largely focus on characteristics of individual embryos. We hypothesized that embryo cohort-specific variables describing sibling embryos as a group may predict developmental competence as measured by IVF cycle outcomes and serve to define human embryo phenotypes. Methodology/Principal Findings We retrieved data for all 1117 IVF cycles performed in 2005 at Stanford University Medical Center, and further analyzed clinical data from the 665 fresh IVF, non-donor cycles and their associated 4144 embryos. Thirty variables representing patient characteristics, clinical diagnoses, treatment protocol, and embryo parameters were analyzed in an unbiased manner by regression tree models, based on dichotomous pregnancy outcomes defined by positive serum ß-human chorionic gonadotropin (ß-hCG). IVF cycle outcomes were most accurately predicted at ∼70% by four non-redundant, embryo cohort-specific variables that, remarkably, were more informative than any measures of individual, transferred embryos: Total number of embryos, number of 8-cell embryos, rate (percentage) of cleavage arrest in the cohort and day 3 follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) level. While three of these variables captured the effects of other significant variables, only the rate of cleavage arrest was independent of any known variables. Conclusions/Significance Our findings support defining human embryo phenotypes by non-redundant, prognostic variables that are specific to sibling embryos in a cohort.

Deep phenotyping to predict live birth outcomes in in vitro fertilization

Nearly 75% of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments do not result in live births and patients are largely guided by a generalized age-based prognostic stratification. We sought to provide personalized and validated prognosis by using available clinical and embryo data from prior, failed treatments to predict live birth probabilities in the subsequent treatment. We generated a boosted tree model, IVFBT, by training it with IVF outcomes data from 1,676 first cycles (C1s) from 2003–2006, followed by external validation with 634 cycles from 2007–2008, respectively. We tested whether this model could predict the probability of having a live birth in the subsequent treatment (C2). By using nondeterministic methods to identify prognostic factors and their relative nonredundant contribution, we generated a prediction model, IVFBT, that was superior to the age-based control by providing over 1,000-fold improvement to fit new data (p < 0.05), and increased discrimination by receiver–operative characteristic analysis (area-under-the-curve, 0.80 vs. 0.68 for C1, 0.68 vs. 0.58 for C2). IVFBT provided predictions that were more accurate for ∼83% of C1 and ∼60% of C2 cycles that were out of the range predicted by age. Over half of those patients were reclassified to have higher live birth probabilities. We showed that data from a prior cycle could be used effectively to provide personalized and validated live birth probabilities in a subsequent cycle. Our approach may be replicated and further validated in other IVF clinics.

Predicting personalized multiple birth risks after in vitro fertilization-double embryo transfer.

OBJECTIVE To report and evaluate the performance and utility of an approach to predicting IVF-double embryo transfer (DET) multiple birth risks that is evidence-based, clinic-specific, and considers each patients clinical profile. DESIGN Retrospective prediction modeling. SETTING An outpatient university-affiliated IVF clinic. PATIENT(S) We used boosted tree methods to analyze 2,413 independent IVF-DET treatment cycles that resulted in live births. The IVF cycles were retrieved from a database that comprised more than 33,000 IVF cycles. INTERVENTION(S) None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S) The performance of this prediction model, MBP-BIVF, was validated by an independent data set, to evaluate predictive power, discrimination, dynamic range, and reclassification. RESULT(S) Multiple birth probabilities ranging from 11.8% to 54.8% were predicted by the model and were significantly different from control predictions in more than half of the patients. The prediction model showed an improvement of 146% in predictive power and 16.0% in discrimination over control. The population standard error was 1.8%. CONCLUSION(S) We showed that IVF patients have inherently different risks of multiple birth, even when DET is specified, and this risk can be predicted before ET. The use of clinic-specific prediction models provides an evidence-based and personalized method to counsel patients.

Antimüllerian hormone levels and antral follicle count as prognostic indicators in a personalized prediction model of live birth

OBJECTIVE To compare antimüllerian hormone (AMH) and antral follicle count (AFC) separately and in combination with clinical characteristics for the prediction of live birth after controlled ovarian stimulation. DESIGN Retrospective development and temporal external validation of prediction model. SETTING Outpatient IVF clinic. PATIENT(S) We applied the boosted tree method to develop three prediction models incorporating clinical characteristics plus AMH or AFC or the combination on 2,124 linked IVF cycles from 2006 to 2010 and temporally externally validated predicted live-birth probabilities with an independent data set comprising 1,121 cycles from 2011 to 2012. INTERVENTION(S) None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S) Predictive power (posterior log of odds ratio compared to age, or PLORA), reclassification, receiver operator characteristic analysis, calibration, dynamic range. RESULT(S) Predictive power, was highest for the AMH model (PLORA = 29.1), followed by the AMH-AFC model (PLORA = 28.3) and AFC model (PLORA = 22.5). The prediction errors were 1% to <5% in each prognostic tier for all three models, except for the predicted live-birth probabilities of <10% in the AFC model, where the prediction error was 8%. The improvement in predictive power was highest for the AMH model: 76.2% improvement over age alone relative to 59% improvement for AFC and 73.3% for the combined model. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that the AMH and the combined model had comparable discrimination (area under the curve = 0.716) and similar prediction error for high and low strata of live-birth prediction, with an improvement of 6.3% over age alone. CONCLUSION(S) The validated prediction model confirmed that AMH when combined with clinical characteristics can accurately identify the likelihood of live birth with a low prediction error. AFC provided no added predictive value beyond AMH.

Learning a nonlinear dynamical system model of gene regulation: A perturbed steady-state approach

Biological structure and function depend on complex regulatory interactions between many genes. A wealth of gene expression data is available from high-throughput genome-wide measurement technologies, but effective gene regulatory network inference methods are still needed. Model-based methods founded on quantitative descriptions of gene regulation are among the most promising, but many such methods rely on simple, local models or on ad hoc inference approaches lacking experimental interpretability. We propose an experimental design and develop an associated statistical method for inferring a gene network by learning a standard quantitative, interpretable, predictive, biophysics-based ordinary differential equation model of gene regulation. We fit the model parameters using gene expression measurements from perturbed steady-states of the system, like those following overexpression or knockdown experiments. Although the original model is nonlinear, our design allows us to transform it into a convex optimization problem by restricting attention to steady-states and using the lasso for parameter selection. Here, we describe the model and inference algorithm and apply them to a synthetic six-gene system, demonstrating that the model is detailed and flexible enough to account for activation and repression as well as synergistic and self-regulation, and the algorithm can efficiently and accurately recover the parameters used to generate the data.