Boris Antić

Estimation of the traffic accidents costs in Serbia by using dominant costs model

Abstract This paper presents estimation of the traffic accident costs in Serbia, based on original dominant costs model. Dominant costs model uses human capital approach and this model is developed for simple and quick calculation of the traffic accidents costs, because other simple methods as 1 million rules, are not suitable for estimation of the traffic accident costs in the countries with a low GDP per capita. Knowing the costs of traffic accidents is of crucial importance for establishing traffic safety to the level defined by the size of costs made as a consequence of unsafely. So, politicians, decision makers and stakeholders in the field of traffic safety often need quick estimation of the traffic accident costs and economic effects of the particular measures which are applied for decreasing the number and severity of traffic accidents. The estimation of the level of the traffic accidents costs in Serbia, based on the official data (from the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Serbia) about tr...

The importance of spatial orientation and knowledge of traffic signs for children's traffic safety

Pre-school children, as well as children from lower grades in primary school, who although rarely, completely independently participate in traffic, represent a vulnerable population from the standpoint of traffic safety. The greatest number of children were injured or killed in road traffic crashes on their way from home to kindergarten or school. Mostly due to lack of experience, childrens behavior is confusing and often reckless and hasty. Safe behavior in the traffic environment demands certain cognitive skills. Unlike adults, children have less than fully developed peripheral vision. Also, changes occur in color perception, i.e. discrimination. All this leads to the conclusion that the stage of physical and mental development of the child is very important for safe participation in traffic. So, to estimate if they are sufficiently equipped to participate safely in traffic, a sensitive test for young children that may be suitable for their level of cognitive development is required. Accordingly, road safety education should be arranged in such a way that considers the childs level of development, as has been shown to be more effective when started at younger ages. Play is the most natural and easiest way of learning because it is the lens through which children experience their world, and the world of others. Having this in mind, if we want to measure the abilities of a child, and their preparedness for safety participation in traffic, unavoidable is to use non-verbal tests. The purpose of this study is to explore primary schoolers spatial, and abilities of color perception and memorization, as well as their performances in interpreting the meaning of traffic signs. In addition, neighborhood environmental correlates (rural-urban) and possible individual differences influences on the relationship among these abilities was examined. Knowledge about these factors affecting childrens safety can be applied to improve relevant intervention measures for promoting safe participation of young children in traffic. It may constitute the basis for effective classroom work which implies the creation of individualized educational plans and programs, through which road safety skills could be acquired and adopted through play.

The analysis of influence of individual and environmental factors on 2-wheeled users’ injuries

ABSTRACT Objective: Powered 2-wheeled motor vehicles (PTWs) are one of the most vulnerable categories of road users. Bearing that fact in mind, we have researched the effects of individual and environmental factors on the severity and type of injuries of PTW users. The aim was to recognize the circumstances that cause these accidents and take some preventive actions that would improve the level of road safety for PTWs. Methods: In the period from 2001 to 2010, an analysis of 139 road accidents involving PTWs was made by the Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering in Belgrade. The effects of both individual (age, gender, etc.) and environmental factors (place of an accident, time of day, etc.) on the cause of accidents and severity and type of injuries of PTWs are reported in this article. Analyses of these effects were conducted using logistic regression, chi-square tests, and Pearsons correlation. Results: Factors such as categories of road users, pavement conditions, place of accident, age, and time of day have a statistically significant effect on PTW injuries, whereas other factors (gender, road type; that is, straight or curvy) do not. The article also defines the interdependence of the occurrence of particular injuries at certain speeds. The results show that if PTW users died of a head injury, these were usually concurrent with chest injuries, injuries to internal organs, and limb injuries. Conclusions: It has been shown that there is a high degree of influence of individual factors on the occurrence of accidents involving 2-wheelers (PTWs/bicycles) but with no statistically significant relation. Establishing the existence of such conditionalities enables identifying and defining factors that have an impact on the occurrence of traffic accidents involving bicyclists or PTWs. Such a link between individual factors and the occurrence of accidents makes it possible for system managers to take appropriate actions aimed at certain categories of 2-wheelers in order to reduce casualties in a particular area. The analysis showed that most of the road factors do not have a statistically significant effect on either category of 2-wheeler. Namely, the logistic regression analysis showed that there is a statistically significant effect of the place of accident on the occurrence of accidents involving bicyclists.

Analysis of possibility for traffic safety improvement based on Serbian traffic violation database analysis

In order to improve traffic safety, both reactive and proactive approaches are used. Unlike the reactive, the proactive approach ’does not wait’ for traffic accidents to happen to start analysing traffic safety conditions. The proactive approach implies traffic safety improvement based on the analysis of socalled indirect traffic safety indicators, like the behaviuor of traffic participants, and the analysis of unsafe traffic participants behaviours that are detected and registered in traffic violations database, are specially interesting. This paper analyzes the possibilities of traffic safety improvement based on Serbian traffic violation database analysis. It was noticed that not all data from database can be used for traffic safety improvement, and at the same time, this paper represents a method in selecting socalled relevant data, which can be used for traffic safety improvement by using adequate preventive activities and measures. In order to define the measures for traffic safety improvement, a possible way of further analysis for some of the relevant data was also presented in this work.

BRZINA KAO INDIKATOR BEZBEDNOSTI SAOBRAĆAJA U ZAVISNOSTI OD KATEGORIJE PUTA I DOBA DANA

Brzina je prepoznata kao znacajan indikator bezbednosti saobracaja zbog toga sto je rec o faktoru rizika, koji u velikoj meri doprinosi nastanku saobracajnih nezgoda i velicini njihovih posledica. Vece brzine vozila u saobracajnom toku doprinose povecanju rizika od nastanka saobracajnih nezgoda, zatim povecanju sudarnih brzina, a samim tim i povecanju težina posledica, koje tom prilikom nastaju. Pracenje indikatora bezbednosti saobracaja koji se odnose na brzinu, u zavisnosti od kategorije vozila, kategorije puta i perioda dana, omogucava da se prepoznaju eventualni problemi bezbednosti saobracaja. Da bi izmerene vrednosti indikatora nedvosmisleno ukazale na postojanje konkretnih problema bezbednosti saobracaja, neophodno je da celokupno istraživanje bude osmisljeno i organizovano u skladu sa naucno zasnovanoj metodologiji istraživanja. Na ovaj nacin se obezbeđuje da sprovedeno istraživanje bude kvalitetno, rezultati relevantni, a izmereni indikatori osnova za projektovanje i sprovođenje odgovarajucih mera unapređenja bezbednosti saobracaja.

Identification of hotspots on roads using continual variance analysis

This paper presents a new statistical model for the identification of dangerous locations (subsections) on roads, also known as hotspots. The model is based on continual analysis of variance. The variance parameter has the potential for the synthesis of quantity and quality, especially regarding traffic accident frequencies and the consequences of traffic accidents within subsections and the significant comparison of the produced synthesis. The sensitivity of the suggested model can be adjusted with the level of disjunction and the length of subsections. A practical application of the new model is performed using a sample of 8442 traffic accidents, of which 6079 were Property Damage Only (PDO) accidents, 2041 resulted in injuries and 322 resulted in fatalities. The sample is for the period of 2001 to 2011 and is from an ‘I class’ two lane rural state road in the Serbia with total length of 284 kilometres. The results acquired using the continual analysis of variance were compared with previous results from four HotSpot Identification Methods (HSID) that are also based on the frequency of traffic accidents. First published online 12 April 2017

Selection and assessment of the relevant data for reducing the number of red-light running

AbstractAlthough traffic light controlled intersections separate, the traffic flows by time and space, road traffic accidents still occur, usually due to Red-Light Running (RLR). In order to define countermeasures to solve this problem, it is necessary to collect and analyze certain data that will indicate type of measures, which should be applied. In this paper, it was done on the example of one 3-leg and one 4-leg intersection where citizens provided information about frequent RLR to the City Administration of Belgrade (Serbia). The statistical significance of differences between the collected data was tested by ANOVA analysis and by PostHoc Tukey test, which showed that forecasting of second of RLR after red-light onset could effectively be conducted by Cubic distribution. In order to define the so-called RLR risk indicator for the intersection, the use of the Danger Degree (DD) indicator, that presents the rate between the number of dangerous situations caused by RLR and the total number of RLR, was p...

Impact of the new road traffic safety law on the number of traffic casualties in Serbia

In this research the analysis of the impact of the new road traffic safety law (new RTSL) in Serbia to the decrease of the number of killed in traffic accidents in Serbia is shown. The effects of a new legislation and larger enforcement made by new RTSL implementation to the decrease of the number of killed and injured in traffic have been analysed by comparing the number of killed and injured in traffic in Belgrade (the capital city of Serbia) during the period from 2002 to 2009, to the data for the year 2010, the first year of new RTSL implementation. Bearing in mind the severity of the consequences, the casualties in traffic was classified into: fatalities, serious injuries and minor injuries and also the analyses of the effects were based on the sorts of traffic participants: drivers, pedestrians, cyclists and passengers. Noticing the effects has been conducted by comparing the number of each class of the casualties in the year 2010 to the annual average number for the period of 2002 to 2009, minimal annual number of killed for the period of 2002 to 2009 and the forecasted trend value for the year 2010 that was obtained by using ARIMA modelling. The analyses of the effects of the new RTSL in Belgrade and Serbia conditioned by new legislation decrees and increased penalties has shown that there have been positive effects, manifested in the decreased number of killed in traffic accidents in 26.5%, but effects of new RTSL weakened as the year was finishing. Key words: Traffic safety law, traffic accidents, number of casualties, number of fatalities, penalties, effects. INTRODUCTION Serbia has a whole century of experience in normative regulation of traffic in accordance with international conventions, agreements and other obligations. Serbia was one of the signatories of the first international Car traffic convention (Paris, 1909). Based on this convention, The law of public overland roads (1910) was legislated and so were the ‘roads building regulation’, and later on also ‘the command of public transport in Belgrade’ and other regulations. During the year 1910, in Serbia, drivers’ trainings, first driving tests and vehicle registration were organized. Serbia, or the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes was also a signatory of the following international traffic conventions (Paris, 1926). Each one of the conventions and every international agreement have entered quite quickly into the inner law