Bouwe P. Krijthe

Meta-analysis identifies six new susceptibility loci for atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation is a highly prevalent arrhythmia and a major risk factor for stroke, heart failure and death. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in individuals of European ancestry, including 6,707 with and 52,426 without atrial fibrillation. Six new atrial fibrillation susceptibility loci were identified and replicated in an additional sample of individuals of European ancestry, including 5,381 subjects with and 10,030 subjects without atrial fibrillation (P < 5 × 10−8). Four of the loci identified in Europeans were further replicated in silico in a GWAS of Japanese individuals, including 843 individuals with and 3,350 individuals without atrial fibrillation. The identified loci implicate candidate genes that encode transcription factors related to cardiopulmonary development, cardiac-expressed ion channels and cell signaling molecules.

Projections on the number of individuals with atrial fibrillation in the European Union, from 2000 to 2060

AIMS Since atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, estimations on the number of individuals with AF are relevant to healthcare planning. We aimed to project the number of individuals with AF in the Netherlands and in the European Union from 2000 to 2060. METHODS AND RESULTS Age- and sex-specific AF prevalence estimates were obtained from the prospective community-based Rotterdam Study. Population projections for the Netherlands and the European Union were obtained from the European Unions statistics office. In the age stratum of 55-59 years, the prevalence of AF was 1.3% in men (95% CI: 0.4-3.6%) and 1.7% in women (95% CI: 0.7-4.0%). The prevalence of AF increased to 24.2% in men (95% CI: 18.5-30.7%), and 16.1% in women (95% CI: 13.1-19.4%), for those >85 years of age. This age- and sex-specific prevalence remained stable during the years of follow-up. Furthermore, we estimate that in the European Union, 8.8 million adults over 55 years had AF in 2010 (95% CI: 6.5-12.3 million). We project that this number will double by 2060 to 17.9 million (95% CI: 13.6-23.7 million) if the age- and sex-specific prevalence remains stable. CONCLUSION We estimate that from 2010 to 2060, the number of adults 55 years and over with AF in the European Union will more than double. As AF is associated with significant morbidities and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF may have major public health implications.

Simple risk model predicts incidence of atrial fibrillation in a racially and geographically diverse population: the CHARGE-AF consortium

Background Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high‐risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors. Methods and Results Individual‐level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment—Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5‐year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, −0.0032; 95% CI, −0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C‐statistic, 0.664; 95% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C‐statistic, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate. Conclusion A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.

Integrating Genetic, Transcriptional, and Functional Analyses to Identify 5 Novel Genes for Atrial Fibrillation

Background— Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects >30 million individuals worldwide and is associated with an increased risk of stroke, heart failure, and death. AF is highly heritable, yet the genetic basis for the arrhythmia remains incompletely understood. Methods and Results— To identify new AF-related genes, we used a multifaceted approach, combining large-scale genotyping in 2 ethnically distinct populations, cis-eQTL (expression quantitative trait loci) mapping, and functional validation. Four novel loci were identified in individuals of European descent near the genes NEURL (rs12415501; relative risk [RR]=1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13–1.23; P=6.5×10−16), GJA1 (rs13216675; RR=1.10; 95% CI, 1.06–1.14; P=2.2×10−8), TBX5 (rs10507248; RR=1.12; 95% CI, 1.08–1.16; P=5.7×10−11), and CAND2 (rs4642101; RR=1.10; 95% CI, 1.06–1.14; P=9.8×10−9). In Japanese, novel loci were identified near NEURL (rs6584555; RR=1.32; 95% CI, 1.26–1.39; P=2.0×10−25) and CUX2 (rs6490029; RR=1.12; 95% CI, 1.08–1.16; P=3.9×10−9). The top single-nucleotide polymorphisms or their proxies were identified as cis-eQTLs for the genes CAND2 (P=2.6×10−19), GJA1 (P=2.66×10−6), and TBX5 (P=1.36×10−5). Knockdown of the zebrafish orthologs of NEURL and CAND2 resulted in prolongation of the atrial action potential duration (17% and 45%, respectively). Conclusions— We have identified 5 novel loci for AF. Our results expand the diversity of genetic pathways implicated in AF and provide novel molecular targets for future biological and pharmacological investigation.

Novel genetic markers associate with atrial fibrillation risk in Europeans and Japanese

OBJECTIVES This study sought to identify nonredundant atrial fibrillation (AF) genetic susceptibility signals and examine their cumulative relations with AF risk. BACKGROUND AF-associated loci span broad genomic regions that may contain multiple susceptibility signals. Whether multiple signals exist at AF loci has not been systematically explored. METHODS We performed association testing conditioned on the most significant, independently associated genetic markers at 9 established AF loci using 2 complementary techniques in 64,683 individuals of European ancestry (3,869 incident and 3,302 prevalent AF cases). Genetic risk scores were created and tested for association with AF in Europeans and an independent sample of 11,309 individuals of Japanese ancestry (7,916 prevalent AF cases). RESULTS We observed at least 4 distinct AF susceptibility signals on chromosome 4q25 upstream of PITX2, but not at the remaining 8 AF loci. A multilocus score comprised 12 genetic markers demonstrated an estimated 5-fold gradient in AF risk. We observed a similar spectrum of risk associated with these markers in Japanese. Regions containing AF signals on chromosome 4q25 displayed a greater degree of evolutionary conservation than the remainder of the locus, suggesting that they may tag regulatory elements. CONCLUSIONS The chromosome 4q25 AF locus is architecturally complex and harbors at least 4 AF susceptibility signals in individuals of European ancestry. Similar polygenic AF susceptibility exists between Europeans and Japanese. Future work is necessary to identify causal variants, determine mechanisms by which associated loci predispose to AF, and explore whether AF susceptibility signals classify individuals at risk for AF and related morbidity.

B-type natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein in the prediction of atrial fibrillation risk: the CHARGE-AF Consortium of community-based cohort studies

AIMS B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) predict atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. However, their risk stratification abilities in the broad community remain uncertain. We sought to improve risk stratification for AF using biomarker information. METHODS AND RESULTS We ascertained AF incidence in 18 556 Whites and African Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC, n=10 675), Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5043), and Framingham Heart Study (FHS, n = 2838), followed for 5 years (prediction horizon). We added BNP (ARIC/CHS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; FHS: BNP), CRP, or both to a previously reported AF risk score, and assessed model calibration and predictive ability [C-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI)]. We replicated models in two independent European cohorts: Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES), n = 4467; Rotterdam Study (RS), n = 3203. B-type natriuretic peptide and CRP were significantly associated with AF incidence (n = 1186): hazard ratio per 1-SD ln-transformed biomarker 1.66 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.56-1.76], P < 0.0001 and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.11-1.25), P < 0.0001, respectively. Model calibration was sufficient (BNP, χ(2) = 17.0; CRP, χ(2) = 10.5; BNP and CRP, χ(2) = 13.1). B-type natriuretic peptide improved the C-statistic from 0.765 to 0.790, yielded an IDI of 0.027 (95% CI, 0.022-0.032), a relative IDI of 41.5%, and a continuous NRI of 0.389 (95% CI, 0.322-0.455). The predictive ability of CRP was limited (C-statistic increment 0.003). B-type natriuretic peptide consistently improved prediction in AGES and RS. CONCLUSION B-type natriuretic peptide, not CRP, substantially improved AF risk prediction beyond clinical factors in an independently replicated, heterogeneous population. B-type natriuretic peptide may serve as a benchmark to evaluate novel putative AF risk biomarkers.

Serum potassium levels and the risk of atrial fibrillation: The Rotterdam Study

BACKGROUND Atrial fibrillation is the most common sustained arrhythmia in the elderly. Serum potassium is associated with ventricular arrhythmias and cardiac arrest. Little is known about the association of serum potassium with atrial fibrillation. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of serum potassium and the risk of atrial fibrillation in a population based setting. METHODS The study was performed within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. The study population consisted of 4059 participants without atrial fibrillation at baseline for whom baseline levels of serum potassium were measured. Atrial fibrillation was ascertained from centre visit ECG assessments as well as medical records. RESULTS During a mean follow up of 11.8 years (SD=5.2 yr), 474 participants developed atrial fibrillation. Participants with hypokalemia (<3.5 mmol/l) had a higher risk of atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.63, 95%CI: 1.03-2.56) than those with normokalemia (3.5-5.0 mmol/l). This association was independent of age, sex, serum magnesium, and other potential confounders. Especially in participants with a history of myocardial infarction, those with hypokalemia had a higher risk of atrial fibrillation than those with normokalemia (HR: 3.81, 95%-CI: 1.51-9.61). CONCLUSIONS In this study low serum levels of potassium were associated with a higher risk of atrial fibrillation.

Annotation of loci from genome-wide association studies using tissue-specific quantitative interaction proteomics

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of loci associated with complex traits, but it is challenging to pinpoint causal genes in these loci and to exploit subtle association signals. We used tissue-specific quantitative interaction proteomics to map a network of five genes involved in the Mendelian disorder long QT syndrome (LQTS). We integrated the LQTS network with GWAS loci from the corresponding common complex trait, QT-interval variation, to identify candidate genes that were subsequently confirmed in Xenopus laevis oocytes and zebrafish. We used the LQTS protein network to filter weak GWAS signals by identifying single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in proximity to genes in the network supported by strong proteomic evidence. Three SNPs passing this filter reached genome-wide significance after replication genotyping. Overall, we present a general strategy to propose candidates in GWAS loci for functional studies and to systematically filter subtle association signals using tissue-specific quantitative interaction proteomics.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and the risk of atrial fibrillation: a population-based follow-up study

Objective To investigate the association of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and the risk of atrial fibrillation in a prospective community-based follow-up study of elderly individuals with uniform case assessment and data on potential confounders. Design Data came from the population-based follow-up study, the Rotterdam Study. Participants The study comprised 8423 participants without atrial fibrillation at baseline. Main outcome measures Atrial fibrillation was ascertained from ECG assessments as well as medical records. Use of NSAIDs was obtained from automated prescription records by linkage with participating pharmacies. We used Cox proportional hazards models to study the association between NSAID drug use and atrial fibrillation. Use of NSAIDs was included in the model as a time-varying variable. Results At baseline, the mean age of the study population was 68.5 years (SD: 8.7) and 58% were women. During a mean follow-up of 12.9 years, 857 participants developed atrial fibrillation. Current use of NSAIDs was associated with increased risk compared with never-use (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.88). Also, recent use (within 30 days after discontinuation of NSAIDs) was associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with never-use (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.34 to 2.51) adjusted for age, sex and several potential confounders. Conclusions In this study, use of NSAIDs was associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation. Further studies are needed to investigate the underlying mechanisms behind this association.

Is Positive Affect Associated With Survival? A Population-based Study of Elderly Persons

Study results on the association of positive affect with survival are conflicting. This disagreement potentially arises from poor control for health or negative affect and for the various age groups studied. The authors examined if positive affect predicts survival; whether this association is preserved after controlling for negative affect, socioeconomic status, lifestyle, and health; and whether this association varies with age. The study is set within the population-based Rotterdam Study (1997-2007) and included 4,411 participants aged 61 years or older, followed for on average 7.19 (standard deviation = 2.20) years. Positive affect was not consistently associated with survival across all ages. A significant interaction of positive affect with age on survival (P = 0.02) was found. Subsequent age stratification revealed that positive affect independently predicted survival in elderly persons aged <80 years (per affect score, hazard ratio = 0.96, 95% confidence interval: 0.93, 0.99) but not in those aged ≥80 years in fully adjusted models (hazard ratio = 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.04). In the oldest old, the association was partly explained by differences in baseline health. In conclusion, the results suggest that there may be an association of positive affect with survival in the younger and middle old but not in the oldest old in whom perception of positive affect is more likely to be determined by health.