Brad C. Astor

Association of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in general population cohorts: a collaborative meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Substantial controversy surrounds the use of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria to define chronic kidney disease and assign its stages. We undertook a meta-analysis to assess the independent and combined associations of eGFR and albuminuria with mortality. METHODS In this collaborative meta-analysis of general population cohorts, we pooled standardised data for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality from studies containing at least 1000 participants and baseline information about eGFR and urine albumin concentrations. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality associated with eGFR and albuminuria, adjusted for potential confounders. FINDINGS The analysis included 105,872 participants (730,577 person-years) from 14 studies with urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) measurements and 1,128,310 participants (4,732,110 person-years) from seven studies with urine protein dipstick measurements. In studies with ACR measurements, risk of mortality was unrelated to eGFR between 75 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and 105 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and increased at lower eGFRs. Compared with eGFR 95 mL/min/1.73 m(2), adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.18 (95% CI 1.05-1.32) for eGFR 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), 1.57 (1.39-1.78) for 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and 3.14 (2.39-4.13) for 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2). ACR was associated with risk of mortality linearly on the log-log scale without threshold effects. Compared with ACR 0.6 mg/mmol, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.20 (1.15-1.26) for ACR 1.1 mg/mmol, 1.63 (1.50-1.77) for 3.4 mg/mmol, and 2.22 (1.97-2.51) for 33.9 mg/mmol. eGFR and ACR were multiplicatively associated with risk of mortality without evidence of interaction. Similar findings were recorded for cardiovascular mortality and in studies with dipstick measurements. INTERPRETATION eGFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and ACR 1.1 mg/mmol (10 mg/g) or more are independent predictors of mortality risk in the general population. This study provides quantitative data for use of both kidney measures for risk assessment and definition and staging of chronic kidney disease. FUNDING Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO), US National Kidney Foundation, and Dutch Kidney Foundation.Background A comprehensive evaluation of the independent and combined associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with mortality is required for assessment of the impact of kidney function on risk in the general population, with implications for improving the definition and staging of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels and the Risk of Mortality in the General Population

BACKGROUND In patients undergoing dialysis, therapy with calcitriol or paricalcitol or other vitamin D agents is associated with reduced mortality. Observational data suggests that low 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels (25[OH]D) are associated with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and cancers. However, whether low serum 25(OH)D levels are associated with mortality in the general population is unknown. METHODS We tested the association of low 25(OH)D levels with all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in 13 331 nationally representative adults 20 years or older from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) linked mortality files. Participant vitamin D levels were collected from 1988 through 1994, and individuals were passively followed for mortality through 2000. RESULTS In cross-sectional multivariate analyses, increasing age, female sex, nonwhite race/ethnicity, diabetes, current smoking, and higher body mass index were all independently associated with higher odds of 25(OH)D deficiency (lowest quartile of 25(OH)D level, <17.8 ng/mL [to convert to nanomoles per liter, multiply by 2.496]), while greater physical activity, vitamin D supplementation, and nonwinter season were inversely associated. During a median 8.7 years of follow-up, there were 1806 deaths, including 777 from CVD. In multivariate models (adjusted for baseline demographics, season, and traditional and novel CVD risk factors), compared with the highest quartile, being in the lowest quartile (25[OH]D levels <17.8 ng/mL) was associated with a 26% increased rate of all-cause mortality (mortality rate ratio, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08-1.46) and a population attributable risk of 3.1%. The adjusted models of CVD and cancer mortality revealed a higher risk, which was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION The lowest quartile of 25(OH)D level (<17.8 ng/mL) is independently associated with all-cause mortality in the general population.

Chronic Kidney Disease Awareness, Prevalence, and Trends among U.S. Adults, 1999 to 2000

The incidence of kidney failure treatment in the United States increased 57% from 1991 to 2000. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence was 11% among U.S. adults surveyed in 1988 to 1994. The objective of this study was to estimate awareness of CKD in the U.S. population during 1999 to 2000 and to determine whether the prevalence of CKD in the United States increased compared with 1988 to 1994. Analysis was conducted of nationally representative samples of noninstitutionalized adults, aged 20 yr and older, in two National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys conducted in 1988 to 1994 (n = 15,488) and 1999 to 2000 (n = 4101) for prevalence +/- SE. Awareness of CKD is self-reported. Kidney function (GFR), kidney damage (microalbuminuria or greater), and stages of CKD (GFR and albuminuria) were estimated from calibrated serum creatinine, spot urine albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR), age, gender, and race. GFR was estimated using the simplified Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation. Self-reported awareness of weak or failing kidneys in 1999 to 2000 was strongly associated with decreased kidney function and albuminuria but was low even in the presence of both conditions. Only 24.3 +/- 6.4% of patients at GFR 15 to 59 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) and albuminuria were aware of CKD compared with 1.1 +/- 0.3% at GFR of 90 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) or greater and no microalbuminuria. At moderately decreased kidney function (GFR 30 to 59 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), awareness was much lower among women than men (2.9 +/- 1.6 versus 17.9 +/- 5.9%; P = 0.008). The prevalence of moderately or severely decreased kidney function (GFR 15 to 59 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) remained stable over the past decade (4.4 +/- 0.3% in 1988 to 1994 and 3.8 +/- 0.4% in 1999 to 2000; P = 0.23). At the same time, the prevalence of albuminuria (ACR >/= 30 mg/g) in single spot urine increased from 8.2 +/- 0.4% to 10.1 +/- 0.7% (P = 0.01). Overall CKD prevalence was similar in both surveys (9% using ACR > 30 mg/g for persistent microalbuminuria; 11% in 1988 to 1994 and 12% in 1999 to 2000 using gender-specific ACR cutoffs). Despite a high prevalence, CKD awareness in the U.S. population is low. In contrast to the dramatic increase in treated kidney failure, overall CKD prevalence in the U.S. population has been relatively stable.

International Comparison of the Relationship of Chronic Kidney Disease Prevalence and ESRD Risk

ESRD incidence is much lower in Europe compared with the United States. This study investigated whether this reflects a difference in the prevalence of earlier stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) or other mechanisms. CKD prevalence in Norway was estimated from the population-based Health Survey of Nord-Trondelag County (HUNT II), which included 65,181 adults in 1995 through 1997 (participation rate 70.4%). Data were analyzed using the same methods as two US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys in 1988 through 1994 (n = 15,488) and 1999 through 2000 (n = 4101). The primary analysis used gender-specific cutoffs in estimating persistent albuminuria for CKD stages 1 and 2. ESRD rates and other relevant data were extracted from national registries. Total CKD prevalence in Norway was 10.2% (SE 0.5): CKD stage 1 (GFR >90 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and albuminuria), 2.7% (SE 0.3); stage 2 (GFR 60 to 89 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and albuminuria), 3.2% (SE 0.4); stage 3 (GFR 30 to 59 ml/min per 1.73 m2), 4.2% (SE 0.1); and stage 4 (GFR 15 to 29 ml/min per 1.73 m2), 0.2% (SE 0.01). This closely approximates reported US CKD prevalence (11.0% in 1988 through 1994 and 11.7% in 1999 through 2000). The relative risk for progression from CKD stages 3 or 4 to ESRD in US white patients compared with Norwegian patients was 2.5. This was only modestly modified by adjustment for age, gender, and diabetes. Age and GFR at start of dialysis were similar, hypertension and cardiovascular mortality in the populations were comparable, but US white patients were referred later to a nephrologist and had higher prevalence of obesity and diabetes. In conclusion, CKD prevalence in Norway was similar to that in the United States, suggesting that lower progression to ESRD rather than a smaller pool of individuals at risk accounts for the lower incidence of ESRD in Norway.

Association of three genetic loci with uric acid concentration and risk of gout: a genome-wide association study

BACKGROUND Hyperuricaemia, a highly heritable trait, is a key risk factor for gout. We aimed to identify novel genes associated with serum uric acid concentration and gout. METHODS Genome-wide association studies were done for serum uric acid in 7699 participants in the Framingham cohort and in 4148 participants in the Rotterdam cohort. Genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were replicated in white (n=11 024) and black (n=3843) individuals who took part in the study of Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC). The SNPs that reached genome-wide significant association with uric acid in either the Framingham cohort (p<5.0 x 10(-8)) or the Rotterdam cohort (p<1.0 x 10(-7)) were evaluated with gout. The results obtained in white participants were combined using meta-analysis. FINDINGS Three loci in the Framingham cohort and two in the Rotterdam cohort showed genome-wide association with uric acid. Top SNPs in each locus were: missense rs16890979 in SLC2A9 (p=7.0 x 10(-168) and 2.9 x 10(-18) for white and black participants, respectively); missense rs2231142 in ABCG2 (p=2.5 x 10(-60) and 9.8 x 10(-4)), and rs1165205 in SLC17A3 (p=3.3 x 10(-26) and 0.33). All SNPs were direction-consistent with gout in white participants: rs16890979 (OR 0.59 per T allele, 95% CI 0.52-0.68, p=7.0 x 10(-14)), rs2231142 (1.74, 1.51-1.99, p=3.3 x 10(-15)), and rs1165205 (0.85, 0.77-0.94, p=0.002). In black participants of the ARIC study, rs2231142 was direction-consistent with gout (1.71, 1.06-2.77, p=0.028). An additive genetic risk score of high-risk alleles at the three loci showed graded associations with uric acid (272-351 mumol/L in the Framingham cohort, 269-386 mumol/L in the Rotterdam cohort, and 303-426 mumol/L in white participants of the ARIC study) and gout (frequency 2-13% in the Framingham cohort, 2-8% in the Rotterdam cohort, and 1-18% in white participants in the ARIC study). INTERPRETATION We identified three genetic loci associated with uric acid concentration and gout. A score based on genes with a putative role in renal urate handling showed a substantial risk for gout.

Cardiac Troponin T Measured by a Highly Sensitive Assay Predicts Coronary Heart Disease, Heart Failure, and Mortality in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Background— We evaluated whether cardiac troponin T (cTnT) measured with a new highly sensitive assay was associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF) in a general population of participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Methods and Results— Associations between increasing cTnT levels and CHD, mortality, and HF hospitalization were evaluated with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for traditional CHD risk factors, kidney function, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide in 9698 participants aged 54 to 74 years who at baseline were free from CHD and stroke (and HF in the HF analysis). Measurable cTnT levels (≥0.003 &mgr;g/L) were detected in 66.5% of individuals. In fully adjusted models, compared with participants with undetectable levels, those with cTnT levels in the highest category (≥0.014 &mgr;g/L; 7.4% of the ARIC population) had significantly increased risk for CHD (hazard ratio=2.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.81 to 2.89), fatal CHD (hazard ratio=7.59; 95% confidence interval, 3.78 to 15.25), total mortality (hazard ratio=3.96; 95% confidence interval, 3.21 to 4.88), and HF (hazard ratio=5.95; 95% confidence interval, 4.47 to 7.92). Even minimally elevated cTnT (≥0.003 &mgr;g/L) was associated with increased risk for mortality and HF (P<0.05). Adding cTnT to traditional risk factors improved risk prediction parameters; the improvements were similar to those with N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide and better than those with the addition of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Conclusions— cTnT detectable with a highly sensitive assay was associated with incident CHD, mortality, and HF in individuals from a general population without known CHD/stroke.

Intensive blood-pressure control in hypertensive chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND In observational studies, the relationship between blood pressure and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is direct and progressive. The burden of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease and ESRD is especially high among black patients. Yet few trials have tested whether intensive blood-pressure control retards the progression of chronic kidney disease among black patients. METHODS We randomly assigned 1094 black patients with hypertensive chronic kidney disease to receive either intensive or standard blood-pressure control. After completing the trial phase, patients were invited to enroll in a cohort phase in which the blood-pressure target was less than 130/80 mm Hg. The primary clinical outcome in the cohort phase was the progression of chronic kidney disease, which was defined as a doubling of the serum creatinine level, a diagnosis of ESRD, or death. Follow-up ranged from 8.8 to 12.2 years. RESULTS During the trial phase, the mean blood pressure was 130/78 mm Hg in the intensive-control group and 141/86 mm Hg in the standard-control group. During the cohort phase, corresponding mean blood pressures were 131/78 mm Hg and 134/78 mm Hg. In both phases, there was no significant between-group difference in the risk of the primary outcome (hazard ratio in the intensive-control group, 0.91; P=0.27). However, the effects differed according to the baseline level of proteinuria (P=0.02 for interaction), with a potential benefit in patients with a protein-to-creatinine ratio of more than 0.22 (hazard ratio, 0.73; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS In overall analyses, intensive blood-pressure control had no effect on kidney disease progression. However, there may be differential effects of intensive blood-pressure control in patients with and those without baseline proteinuria. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, the National Center on Minority Health and Health Disparities, and others.)

Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher albuminuria are associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A collaborative meta-analysis of high-risk population cohorts

Screening for chronic kidney disease is recommended in people at high risk, but data on the independent and combined associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality are limited. To clarify this, we performed a collaborative meta-analysis of 10 cohorts with 266,975 patients selected because of increased risk for chronic kidney disease, defined as a history of hypertension, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease. Risk for all-cause mortality was not associated with eGFR between 60-105 ml/min per 1.73 m², but increased at lower levels. Hazard ratios at eGFRs of 60, 45, and 15 ml/min per 1.73 m² were 1.03, 1.38 and 3.11, respectively, compared to an eGFR of 95, after adjustment for albuminuria and cardiovascular risk factors. Log albuminuria was linearly associated with log risk for all-cause mortality without thresholds. Adjusted hazard ratios at albumin-to-creatinine ratios of 10, 30 and 300 mg/g were 1.08, 1.38, and 2.16, respectively compared to a ratio of five. Albuminuria and eGFR were multiplicatively associated with all-cause mortality, without evidence for interaction. Similar associations were observed for cardiovascular mortality. Findings in cohorts with dipstick data were generally comparable to those in cohorts measuring albumin-to-creatinine ratios. Thus, lower eGFR and higher albuminuria are risk factors for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in high-risk populations, independent of each other and of cardiovascular risk factors.

Lower estimated GFR and higher albuminuria are associated with adverse kidney outcomes. A collaborative meta-analysis of general and high-risk population cohorts.

Both a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria are known risk factors for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). To determine their joint contribution to ESRD and other kidney outcomes, we performed a meta-analysis of nine general population cohorts with 845,125 participants and an additional eight cohorts with 173,892 patients, the latter selected because of their high risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD). In the general population, the risk for ESRD was unrelated to eGFR at values between 75 and 105 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) but increased exponentially at lower levels. Hazard ratios for eGFRs averaging 60, 45, and 15 were 4, 29, and 454, respectively, compared with an eGFR of 95, after adjustment for albuminuria and cardiovascular risk factors. Log albuminuria was linearly associated with log ESRD risk without thresholds. Adjusted hazard ratios at albumin-to-creatinine ratios of 30, 300, and 1000 mg/g were 5, 13, and 28, respectively, compared with an albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 5. Albuminuria and eGFR were associated with ESRD, without evidence for multiplicative interaction. Similar associations were found for acute kidney injury and progressive CKD. In high-risk cohorts, the findings were generally comparable. Thus, lower eGFR and higher albuminuria are risk factors for ESRD, acute kidney injury and progressive CKD in both general and high-risk populations, independent of each other and of cardiovascular risk factors.

Multiple loci associated with indices of renal function and chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has a heritable component and is an important global public health problem because of its high prevalence and morbidity. We conducted genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to identify susceptibility loci for glomerular filtration rate, estimated by serum creatinine (eGFRcrea) and cystatin C (eGFRcys), and CKD (eGFRcrea < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2) in European-ancestry participants of four population-based cohorts (ARIC, CHS, FHS, RS; n = 19,877; 2,388 CKD cases), and tested for replication in 21,466 participants (1,932 CKD cases). We identified significant SNP associations (P < 5 × 10−8) with CKD at the UMOD locus, with eGFRcrea at UMOD, SHROOM3 and GATM-SPATA5L1, and with eGFRcys at CST and STC1. UMOD encodes the most common protein in human urine, Tamm-Horsfall protein, and rare mutations in UMOD cause mendelian forms of kidney disease. Our findings provide new insights into CKD pathogenesis and underscore the importance of common genetic variants influencing renal function and disease.