Brad R. Blair

Lunar resource utilization: Implications for commerce and exploration

Abstract Propellant derived from ice located in permanently shadowed craters near the Moons poles has been proposed as a commercial venture for the Moon. A detailed analysis of the possibilities associated with lunar propellants has been carried out with an integrated technical-financial tool. The analysis shows that, with current understanding of the available technology for propellant production, transportation systems, and the market for launch of vehicles between LEO-GEO, it is difficult to demonstrate that a viable commercial opportunity exists to serve that market with lunar propellant. Improvements in technology, the location of higher concentrations of ice on the Moon, the availability of a space infrastructure, and a larger market each could significantly improve the prospects for commercial viability. A government-sponsored human exploration program, using the Earth-Moon L-1 point as a hub, could address many of these issues while avoiding program costs and could open commercial opportunities in space transportation.

Architecture Studies for Commercial Production of Propellants From the Lunar Poles

Two architectures are developed that could be used to convert water held in regolith deposits within permanently shadowed lunar craters into propellant for use in near‐Earth space. In particular, the model has been applied to an analysis of the commercial feasibility of using lunar derived propellant to convey payloads from low Earth orbit to geosynchronous Earth orbit. Production and transportation system masses were estimated for each architecture and cost analysis was made using the NAFCOM cost model. Data from the cost model were analyzed using a financial analysis tool reported in a companion paper (Lamassoure et al., 2002) to determine under what conditions the architectures might be commercially viable. Analysis of the architectural assumptions is used to identify the principal areas for further research, which include technological development of lunar mining and water extraction systems, power systems, reusable space transportation systems, and orbital propellant depots. The architectures and com...

Real-world Mining Feasibility Studies Applied to Asteroids, the Moon and Mars

Recent directives from national leadership in the US have proposed manned exploration and mining on asteroids. While there are dozens of locations in the solar system with potential resources for mining, not all of them are equally promising. A short introduction to the principals of mining feasibility studies can demonstrate that the financial feasibility of mining asteroids is quite questionable regardless of any technical plausibility, especially when compared to other more viable options for mining in space. Furthermore, mineral exploitation beyond Earth can become quite realistic and achievable in only a few years if approached correctly with the appropriate expertise and integration of technology. This paper compares the feasibility of potential mining projects on asteroids, the Earth’s Moon, and Mars based on each location’s dynamic nature. Key components for success, such as location, architecture, and economics are identified and quantified, since each has a significant role in mining feasibility studies that used in the industry.

Is Extraction of Methane, Hydrogen and Oxygen from the Lunar Regolith Economically Feasible?

The extraction of oxygen from the lunar regolith is relatively straightforward and has been studied extensively. Extraction of hydrogen is also straightforward, but because the concentration of hydrogen is so low (∼50 ppm), the economics is problematical. However, a process for extracting hydrogen may also extract carbon, which is typically present at the 100 ppm level. A small amount of available oxygen can be extracted in the same process, through the hydrogen or carbon reduction of iron oxide in the regolith. Thus, a combined process is possible in which methane and oxygen are the end products. Methane has advantages over hydrogen in terms of storage and liquefaction energy requirements. We show that the combined hydrogen and carbon content of a given quantity of lunar regolith, if converted to methane and used in a methane/oxygen engine, can lift more payload off of the Moon than a hydrogen/oxygen engine utilizing hydrogen and oxygen extracted from the same amount of regolith. We examine the conditions under which it might become economically feasible to utilize these minor constituents of the lunar regolith. It is concluded that improved excavator, extractor, and power technologies could make the extraction economically feasible. This would open practically any place on the Moon as a source of rocket propellant.The extraction of oxygen from the lunar regolith is relatively straightforward and has been studied extensively. Extraction of hydrogen is also straightforward, but because the concentration of hydrogen is so low (∼50 ppm), the economics is problematical. However, a process for extracting hydrogen may also extract carbon, which is typically present at the 100 ppm level. A small amount of available oxygen can be extracted in the same process, through the hydrogen or carbon reduction of iron oxide in the regolith. Thus, a combined process is possible in which methane and oxygen are the end products. Methane has advantages over hydrogen in terms of storage and liquefaction energy requirements. We show that the combined hydrogen and carbon content of a given quantity of lunar regolith, if converted to methane and used in a methane/oxygen engine, can lift more payload off of the Moon than a hydrogen/oxygen engine utilizing hydrogen and oxygen extracted from the same amount of regolith. We examine the condition...

Unit Costs for Lunar‐Derived Propellants

The estimated propellant production cost per metric ton will be derived and presented for solar system transportation waypoints. Background on recent and ongoing space resource propellant supply models will be presented, with a review of architectural assumptions, costs and expected markets. Integrated economic and engineering models (Duke et al., 2003; Duke, Blair and Diaz, 2002; Lamassoure et al. 2003; and Blair et al., 2002) estimate production costs, expected productivity of the mining and processing system, reusable transportation element behavior, fuel depot activity and revenues based on projected market conditions. Results of these economic models are used to derive total and marginal unit costs for propellant at fuel depot facilities for the purpose of facilitating the commercial development of space and to aid program and logistic planning for human space exploration missions.

Evaluation of private sector roles in space resource development

An integrated engineering and financial modeling approach has been developed and used to evaluate the potential for private sector investment in space resource development, and to assess possible roles of the public sector in fostering private interest. This paper presents the modeling approach and its results for a transportation service using propellant extracted from lunar regolith. The analysis starts with careful case study definition, including an analysis of the customer base and market requirements, which are the basis for design of a modular, scalable space architecture. The derived non‐recurring, recurring and operations costs become inputs for a ‘standard’ financial model, as used in any commercial business plan. This model generates pro forma financial statements, calculates the amount of capitalization required, and generates return on equity calculations using two valuation metrics of direct interest to private investors: market enterprise value and multiples of key financial measures. Use o...