Brage Bremset Hansen

Climate events synchronize the dynamics of a resident vertebrate community in the high Arctic.

All Together Now Environmental drivers, such as extreme weather events, impact population dynamics and can synchronize such dynamics across populations within a species. Given that many species depend on similar resources, such events might also be expected to synchronize dynamics across species, but the complexity of multispecies communities makes it difficult to reveal potential drivers in common. Hansen et al. (p. 313) took advantage of the simplicity of the year-round community on the high-arctic island of Spitsbergen to test for the presence of synchrony. Population fluctuations were synchronized across the three herbivore species (Svalbard reindeer, Svalbard rock ptarmigan, and sibling vole) and the single resident predator, the arctic fox, was in lagged synchrony. The driver of these fluctuations appears to be extreme winter rain-on-snow events that reduce the availability of winter forage due to ice cover. Reindeer, ptarmigan, vole, and fox populations on Svalbard respond together to extreme weather. Recently accumulated evidence has documented a climate impact on the demography and dynamics of single species, yet the impact at the community level is poorly understood. Here, we show that in Svalbard in the high Arctic, extreme weather events synchronize population fluctuations across an entire community of resident vertebrate herbivores and cause lagged correlations with the secondary consumer, the arctic fox. This synchronization is mainly driven by heavy rain on snow that encapsulates the vegetation in ice and blocks winter forage availability for herbivores. Thus, indirect and bottom-up climate forcing drives the population dynamics across all overwintering vertebrates. Icing is predicted to become more frequent in the circumpolar Arctic and may therefore strongly affect terrestrial ecosystem characteristics.

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

Winter habitat–space use in a large arctic herbivore facing contrasting forage abundance

We analysed how changes in resource levels influence foraging trade-offs in late winter by wild Svalbard reindeer. Forage plants, and particularly lichens, were less abundant at the overgrazed Brøggerhalvøya compared with the neighbouring Sarsøyra. Strong interactions occurred between habitat selection, home range size, and feeding crater selection. At Brøggerhalvøya, radiocollared females generally selected productive habitat (high summer NDVI; Normalised Difference Vegetation Index). “Immigrants” at Sarsøyra (dispersed from Brøggerhalvøya in early winter) had similar habitat preferences, probably due to past experience. In contrast, “residents” at Sarsøyra were more influenced by abiotic conditions, using habitat with low NDVI, but selecting for high-quality forage (lichens) when cratering. This suggests more quality-based selection at the expense of quantity when forage abundance increases. Habitat–space use relationships also differed between the animal categories, as home range size decreased with availability of preferred habitat. Thus, changes in forage abundance can strongly influence winter habitat–space use interactions in predator-free systems.

Kelp and seaweed feeding by High-Arctic wild reindeer under extreme winter conditions

One challenge in current Arctic ecological research is to understand and predict how wildlife may respond to increased frequencies of “extreme” weather events. Heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is one such extreme phenomenon associated with winter warming that is not well studied but has potentially profound ecosystem effects through changes in snow-pack properties and ice formation. Here, we document how ice-locked pastures following substantial amounts of ROS forced coastal Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) to use marine habitat in late winter 2010. A thick coat of ground ice covered 98% of the lowland ranges, almost completely blocking access to terrestrial forage. Accordingly, a population census revealed that 13% of the total population (n=26 of 206 individuals) and 21% of one sub-population were feeding on washed-up kelp and seaweed on the sea-ice foot. Calves were overrepresented among the individuals that applied this foraging strategy, which probably represents a last attempt to avoid starvation under particularly severe foraging conditions. The study adds to the impression that extreme weather events such as heavy ROS and associated icing can trigger large changes in the realized foraging niche of Arctic herbivores.

Experimental icing affects growth, mortality, and flowering in a high Arctic dwarf shrub

Abstract Effects of climate change are predicted to be greatest at high latitudes, with more pronounced warming in winter than summer. Extreme mid‐winter warm spells and heavy rain‐on‐snow events are already increasing in frequency in the Arctic, with implications for snow‐pack and ground‐ice formation. These may in turn affect key components of Arctic ecosystems. However, the fitness consequences of extreme winter weather events for tundra plants are not well understood, especially in the high Arctic. We simulated an extreme mid‐winter rain‐on‐snow event at a field site in high Arctic Svalbard (78°N) by experimentally encasing tundra vegetation in ice. After the subsequent growing season, we measured the effects of icing on growth and fitness indices in the common tundra plant, Arctic bell‐heather (Cassiope tetragona). The suitability of this species for retrospective growth analysis enabled us to compare shoot growth in pre and postmanipulation years in icing treatment and control plants, as well as shoot survival and flowering. Plants from icing treatment plots had higher shoot mortality and lower flowering success than controls. At the individual sample level, heavily flowering plants invested less in shoot growth than nonflowering plants, while shoot growth was positively related to the degree of shoot mortality. Therefore, contrary to expectation, undamaged shoots showed enhanced growth in ice treatment plants. This suggests that following damage, aboveground resources were allocated to the few remaining undamaged meristems. The enhanced shoot growth measured in our icing treatment plants has implications for climate studies based on retrospective analyses of Cassiope. As shoot growth in this species responds positively to summer warming, it also highlights a potentially complex interaction between summer and winter conditions. By documenting strong effects of icing on growth and reproduction of a widespread tundra plant, our study contributes to an understanding of Arctic plant responses to projected changes in winter climatic conditions.

Changes in greening in the High Arctic - insights from a 30-year AVHRR max NDVI dataset for Svalbard

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Ungulate population monitoring in an open tundra landscape: distance sampling versus total counts

Researchers and wildlife managers strive for low bias and high precision (i.e. high accuracy) when estimating animal population sizes. Distance sampling is currently one of the most widely used monitoring methods. However, it relies on strict sampling designs and modeling assumptions that can be difficult to meet in the field. Here, we use data from two sub-populations of non-migratory wild Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus inhabiting flat, open and isolated coastal tundra plains, to demonstrate some challenges related to the distance sampling methodology. To achieve this, we compared distance sampling line transect estimates with repeated total population counts and combined available software tools (R packages unmarked, Distance and dsm) to fulfill the analytical requirements of small study sites in which large areas are surveyed relative to the study area size. Based on low variation among repeated total counts (CV = 0.02 - 0.06) and the virtual absence of false negatives and positives of marked animals, the total counts could be used as reference population sizes. Distance sampling estimates were not statistically different from the total count estimates. Our relatively large sample size of 143 observations enabled precise distance sampling abundance estimates (CV = 0.16 - 0.26) compared with other studies in the wild. However, capturing the processes shaping population dynamics would likely require even higher sampling effort or other, more resource demanding monitoring tools, such as total counts or mark-recapture. In this type of ecosystem, distance sampling nevertheless represents a cost-effective tool suitable for ‘population state’ assessment and studies of large-scale spatial distribution patterns. Our study stresses the importance of choosing the appropriate analytical tools and estimating the accuracy of the monitoring methods that are used to achieve specific scientific, management or conservation goals.

Cratering behaviour and faecal C:N ratio in relation to seasonal snowpack characteristics in a High-Arctic ungulate

ABSTRACT Snow and ice determine winter forage availability for Arctic herbivores. Winter precipitation is anticipated to increase, and icing following warm spells and rain-on-snow (ROS) are likely to become more frequent. While this may reduce herbivore survival, fecundity and population growth, we can also expect behavioural and dietary responses. Here, we tested predictions from optimal foraging theory on how changing snowpack conditions influence choice of feeding craters and diet quality in a large generalist herbivore, the wild Svalbard reindeer. Snow and ice conditions over winter 2012/13 (a ‘normal’ winter with little ROS and icing) were measured in reindeer feeding craters, in paired controls one metre away and in fixed control sites. On average, feeding craters had less snow and integrated ram hardness (IRH, the force needed to reach the ground), but not less ice, than nearby controls. However, on this fine spatial scale, reindeer tended to select for microhabitat with worse snowpack conditions up to a certain level of snow (ca. 10 cm), ice (0.5 cm) and IRH (250 kg cm) in the nearby controls, reflecting the trade-off between selection for forage abundance versus accessibility in a sparsely vegetated environment. In this lichen-free system, faecal C:N ratios increased during winter as forage accessibility was increasingly restricted by snow, possibly indicating a reduction in diet quality due to changes in diet composition. Our study suggests that snowpack depth and hardness largely determine Svalbard reindeer feeding behaviour and diet quality during the course of a winter season.