Brandon L. Drake

Strontium Isotopes and the Reconstruction of the Chaco Regional System: Evaluating Uncertainty with Bayesian Mixing Models

Strontium isotope sourcing has become a common and useful method for assigning sources to archaeological artifacts. In Chaco Canyon, an Ancestral Pueblo regional center in New Mexico, previous studies using these methods have suggested that significant portion of maize and wood originate in the Chuska Mountains region, 75 km to the East. In the present manuscript, these results were tested using both frequentist methods (to determine if geochemical sources can truly be differentiated) and Bayesian methods (to address uncertainty in geochemical source attribution). It was found that Chaco Canyon and the Chuska Mountain region are not easily distinguishable based on radiogenic strontium isotope values. The strontium profiles of many geochemical sources in the region overlap, making it difficult to definitively identify any one particular geochemical source for the canyons pre-historic maize. Bayesian mixing models support the argument that some spruce and fir wood originated in the San Mateo Mountains, but that this cannot explain all 87Sr/86Sr values in Chaco timber. Overall radiogenic strontium isotope data do not clearly identify a single major geochemical source for maize, ponderosa, and most spruce/fir timber. As such, the degree to which Chaco Canyon relied upon outside support for both food and construction material is still ambiguous.

Prehistoric deforestation at Chaco Canyon

Ancient societies are often used to illustrate the potential problems stemming from unsustainable land-use practices because the past seems rife with examples of sociopolitical “collapse” associated with the exhaustion of finite resources. Just as frequently, and typically in response to such presentations, archaeologists and other specialists caution against seeking simple cause-and effect-relationships in the complex data that comprise the archaeological record. In this study we examine the famous case of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, during the Bonito Phase (ca. AD 860–1140), which has become a prominent popular illustration of ecological and social catastrophe attributed to deforestation. We conclude that there is no substantive evidence for deforestation at Chaco and no obvious indications that the depopulation of the canyon in the 13th century was caused by any specific cultural practices or natural events. Clearly there was a reason why these farming people eventually moved elsewhere, but the archaeological record has not yet produced compelling empirical evidence for what that reason might have been. Until such evidence appears, the legacy of Ancestral Pueblo society in Chaco should not be used as a cautionary story about socioeconomic failures in the modern world.

The 5.1 ka aridization event, expansion of piñon-juniper woodlands, and the introduction of maize (Zea mays) in the American Southwest

Pollen analysis is frequently used to build climate and environmental histories. A distinct Holocene pollen series exists for Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. This study reports linear modeling and hypothesis testing of long distance dispersal pollen from radiocarbon-dated packrat middens which reveal strong relationships between piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Ponderosa pollen dominates midden pollen assemblages during the early Holocene, while a rapid shift to a much higher proportion of piñon to ponderosa pine pollen between c. 5440 and 5102 cal. yr BP points to an aridization episode. This shift is associated with higher δ18O values in Southwest speleothem records relative to the preceding millennium. The period of aridization is followed by a sharp increase in El Niño/Southern Oscillation events that would have caused highly variable precipitation and lasted until c. 4200 cal. yr BP. Bayesian change-point analysis suggests that this aridization episode led to stable ecotonal boundaries for at least 3000 years. The piñon/ponderosa transition may have been caused by punctuated multiyear droughts, analogous to those in the 20th century. The earliest documented instance of Zea mays cultivation on the Colorado Plateau is around c. 3940 14C yr BP (c. 4364 cal. yr BP) (Hall SA (2010) Early maize pollen from Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, USA. Palynology 34(1): 125–137) in Chaco Canyon. The introduction of this labor-intensive cultigen from Mesoamerica may have been facilitated by changes in the regional ecosystems, specifically by an increase in piñon trees, that promoted increasing human territoriality. Linear modeling and hypothesis testing can complement traditional palynological techniques by adding greater resolution in vegetation patterning to climate/environmental histories.