Brandon R. McFadden

Which biotech foods are most acceptable to the public

New discoveries are prompting questions about which types of genetically engineered foods and applications are likely to be most accepted by the public. Results of a survey of over 1000 US consumers reveals that people prefer eating beef to eating corn or apples if the foods are not genetically engineered, but exactly the opposite is true if the foods are genetically engineered. Eating fresh food is preferred to processed, but much less so if both food types are genetically engineered. Desirability of genetic engineering depends on the reason for the biotechnology application.

Can Neural Activation in Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex Predict Responsiveness to Information? An Application to Egg Production Systems and Campaign Advertising

Consumers prefer to pay low prices and increase animal welfare; however consumers are typically forced to make tradeoffs between price and animal welfare. Campaign advertising (i.e., advertising used during the 2008 vote on Proposition 2 in California) may affect how consumers make tradeoffs between price and animal welfare. Neuroimaging data was used to determine the effects of brain activation in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) on choices making a tradeoff between price and animal welfare and responsiveness to campaign advertising. Results indicated that activation in the dlPFC was greater when making choices that forced a tradeoff between price and animal welfare, compared to choices that varied only by price or animal welfare. Furthermore, greater activation differences in right dlPFC between choices that forced a tradeoff and choices that did not, indicated greater responsiveness to campaign advertising.

Neural Activations Associated with Decision-time and Choice in a Milk Labeling Experiment

The authors incorporate brain activation data in an analysis of decision time and choices for milk labeled as produced with growth hormone or cloning technologies, or labeled as conventional milk. Non-hypothetical choices and decision time are correlated with blood oxygenation level-dependent extractions in brain regions previously found to be involved in valuation. The significance of the activations related to price and production technology differs in models of decision time and choice. More areas influence the time it takes to make a decision. The final decision appears to be most correlated with localized areas in the medial prefrontal cortex, with a higher correlation when the choice is about growth hormones than cloning technology.

Competing risks models of Farm Service Agency seven-year direct operating loans

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to apply duration methods to a sample of Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct, seven-year operating loans to identify those variables that influence the time to loan termination and type of termination. Variables include both those known at time of loan origination and those that characterize the changing economic environment over the life of the loan. Also, to examine the impact of various FSA programs promoting policy objectives. Design/methodology/approach - A systematic sample of 877 seven-year, FSA direct loans originated between October 1, 1993 and September 30, 1996 was collected. Cox regression, competing risks models are estimated as a function of borrower and loan characteristics observable at loan origination. Economic indicator variables emphasizing the farm economy and observed quarterly over the life of the loan are also included as explanatory variables. Findings - Loan characteristics, borrower financial characteristics and degree of borrower interaction with FSA observable at origin are significant variables in determining type of loan outcome (default or paid-in-full) and time to outcome. Changes in the economic environment and farm economy during the life of the loan are significant. Research limitations/implications - The sample consists only of FSA direct loans which implies borrowers are at financial margin. Application of method to agricultural loans from conventional commercial lenders could identify different significant factors. Practical implications - Using length of time to loan termination instead of just type of outcome provides for a richer analysis of loan performance. Loan performance over time is influenced by the larger economy and should be incorporated into loan performance modeling. Originality/value - The study described in the paper demonstrates use of competing risks models on intermediate agricultural loans and develops how this technique can be used to learn about dynamic aspects of loan performance. Sample consists of observations on individual FSA direct loan borrowers. The FSA direct loan program is the major source of credit for agricultural borrowers at the financial margin.

The Unknowns and Possible Implications of Mandatory Labeling

The National Bioengineered Food Disclosure Standard requires a mandatory label for genetically modified (GM) food. Currently, some aspects of the bill are unknown, including what constitutes a food to be considered GM. The costs associated with this legislation will depend on how actors in the food value chain respond.

Examining the Gap between Science and Public Opinion about Genetically Modified Food and Global Warming.

There is great uncertainty due to challenges of escalating population growth and climate change. Public perception that diverges from the scientific community may decrease the effectiveness of scientific inquiry and innovation as tools to solve these challenges. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with the divergence of public opinion from scientific consensus regarding the safety of genetically modified (GM) foods and human involvement in global warming (GW). Results indicate that the effects of knowledge on public opinion are complex and non-uniform across types of knowledge (i.e., perceived and actual) or issues. Political affiliation affects agreement with science; Democrats were more likely to agree that GM food is safe and human actions cause GW. Respondents who had relatively higher cognitive function or held illusionary correlations about GM food or GW were more likely to have an opinion that differed from the scientific community.

How Greenhouse Gas Emission Policy and Industry Pressure Could Affect Producer Selection of Rice Cultivars

This study estimates how potential carbon policies targeted at reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could affect selection of rice cultivars by conducting a life cycle assessment of GHG emissions and estimating the carbon sequestered for fourteen commonly sown rice cultivars across Arkansas. Market-oriented carbon-offset credits based on additionality likely would be insufficient to convince producers to change cultivars; nonetheless, there may be upstream pressure as food retailers strive to lower their overall carbon footprints. Given their higher yield per unit of GHG emission, hybrid rice cultivars appear to be positioned to respond to industry demand.

Nitrogen fertilizer recommendations based on plant sensing and Bayesian updating

Methods are available to predict nitrogen needs of winter wheat based on plant sensing, but adoption rates by producers are low. Current algorithms that provide nitrogen recommendations based on plant sensing implicitly assume that parameters are estimated without error. A Bayesian updating method was developed that can incorporate precision plant sensing information and is simple enough that it could be computed on-the-go. The method can consider producers prior information and can account for parameter uncertainty. Bayesian updating gives higher nitrogen recommendations than plant sensing recommendations using a plug-in method. These recommendations increase net returns over the previous recommendations, but not enough to make plant sensing profitable in this scenario.

Effects of the National Bioengineered Food Disclosure Standard: Willingness To Pay for Labels that Communicate the Presence or Absence of Genetic Modification

After much debate, the United States recently adopted a law that will require mandatory labeling of genetically modified (GM) food. We elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP) for manufactured and fresh foods that communicate the presence or absence of GM material. We find that a text disclosing the presence of GM material lowers WTP relative to a QR code disclosure that must be scanned. Furthermore, participants perceive Non-GMO Project verified and organic as substitutes; WTP premiums for a product with both Non-GMO Project verified and organic labels is about the same as the WTP premium when either label is present in isolation.

Are Consumers as Constrained as Hens are Confined? Brain Activations and Behavioral Choices after Informational Influence

Abstract In 2008, California passed Proposition 2, specifying confinement space for certain farm animals. Proposition 2 went into full effect January 2015 and has significant implications for egg production in California and possibly even interstate commerce. We examined the influence of promotional videos aired during the campaign on consumers’ willingness-to-pay for eggs produced in a more open production system (i.e., cage-free, free range) and corresponding neurofunctional activations during decisions. Forty-six participants (24 females), aged 18–55 years (M=29.65), were enrolled and performed a food decision-making task during fMRI scanning. In each decision, two options of identical one dozen cartons of eggs were presented simultaneously. Below each option were two attributes, describing price and production method. Cage free and free-range eggs were more expensive, at varying degrees. Participants were randomized to one of three 30-second video groups: pro-Proposition 2, anti-Proposition 2, and a Neutral flowing stream. Based on a whole brain analysis, participants in the pro-Proposition 2 video group (N=16) demonstrated significantly greater activations post-video compared to pre-video in left insular cortex and right occipital cortex. This change in insula activity may be indicative of increased social risk involved with the purchase of closed production method eggs, driving participants to increase their percentage of decisions to purchase the higher priced, open-method eggs. It is possible that the insula activation indicates that consumers are constrained to choosing the eggs produced under open-cage production methods, after viewing advertisements advocating for Proposition 2.