Breanyn MacInnes

Tsunami geomorphology: Erosion and deposition from the 15 November 2006 Kuril Island tsunami

The 15 November 2006 Kuril earthquake (Mw 8.1–8.4) and tsunami enabled us to collect a compelling data set of coastal geomorphic change in the Kuril Islands from ~3 months before to 9 (and 21) months after the tsunami. Our pre-tsunami and post-tsunami surveys of the islands, including four topographic profi les measured in 2006 and reoccupied in 2007, allow us the confi dence to attribute many changes to the tsunami, in spite of an absence of eyewitness accounts in the central islands. Areas with low runup, 15 m, underwent massive erosion that dramatically altered the coastline. Tsunami deposits roughly corresponded with the extent of tsunami runup and inundation. The amount of sediment eroded by the tsunami far outweighed the amount deposited on land in all cases studied. The tsunami was dominantly erosive in the Kuril Islands because the high-relief topography of the coastline accelerated tsunami outfl ow.

A methodology for near‐field tsunami inundation forecasting: Application to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

Existing tsunami early warning systems in the world can give either one or a combination of estimated tsunami arrival times, heights, or qualitative tsunami forecasts before the tsunami hits near-field coastlines. A future tsunami early warning system should be able to provide a reliable near-field tsunami inundation forecast on high-resolution topography within a short time period. Here we describe a new methodology for near-field tsunami inundation forecasting. In this method, a precomputed tsunami inundation and precomputed tsunami waveform database is required. After information about a tsunami source is estimated, tsunami waveforms at nearshore points can be simulated in real time. A scenario that gives the most similar tsunami waveforms is selected as the site-specific best scenario and the tsunami inundation from that scenario is selected as the tsunami inundation forecast. To test the algorithm, tsunami inundation along the Sanriku Coast is forecasted by using source models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake estimated from GPS, W phase, or offshore tsunami waveform data. The forecasting algorithm is capable of providing a tsunami inundation forecast that is similar to that obtained by numerical forward modeling but with remarkably smaller CPU time. The time required to forecast tsunami inundation in coastal sites from the Sendai Plain to Miyako City is approximately 3 min after information about the tsunami source is obtained. We found that the tsunami inundation forecasts from the 5 min GPS, 5 min W phase, 10 min W phase fault models, and 35 min tsunami source model are all reliable for tsunami early warning purposes and quantitatively match the observations well, although the latter model gives tsunami forecasts with highest overall accuracy. The required times to obtain tsunami forecast from the above four models are 8 min, 9 min, 14 min, and 39 min after the earthquake, respectively, or in other words 3 min after receiving the source model. This method can be useful in developing future tsunami forecasting systems with a capability of providing tsunami inundation forecasts for locations near the tsunami source area.

Slip Distribution of the 1952 Kamchatka Great Earthquake Based on Near-Field Tsunami Deposits and Historical Records

We explore the magnitude and slip distribution of the 1952 Kamchatka earthquake (Mw 8.8-9.0) using constraints from the 1952 Kamchatka tsunami. Our new field data provide more comprehensive coverage of the near-field tsunami than had been available to date. We examine the effects of internal slip distribution within complex earthquake ruptures on near-field tsunami runup and evaluate some of the limitations of this approach. Our approach compares tsunami-deposit distribution with simulated runup from tsunamis generated by different configurations of seafloor deformation from hypothetical earthquakes resembling that of the 1952 Kamchatka earthquake. We identify areas of high slip because different distributions of seafloor deformation result in variations in tsunami runup in the near field. Mapped deposits and local observations of the 1952 Kamchatka tsunami indicate that near-field runup in central Kamchatka was consistently less than 10 m (averaging 6 m), while south Kamchatka to the northern Kuril Islands had more variability and higher average runup (8 m runup in South Kamchatka and 10 m runup in the northern Kuril Islands). Our simulations show that in order to produce the distribution of runup indicated by tsunami deposits and historical observations, the 1952 earthquake had regions of high slip off the coast of southern Kamchatka, and the location of high slip is shallower in the subduction zone than previously interpreted. Online Material: Sedimentary methodology, model inputs, and simulation results.

A nexus of plate interaction: Vertical deformation of Holocene wave-built terraces on the Kamchatsky Peninsula (Kamchatka, Russia)

Kamchatsky Peninsula lies within a complex meeting place of tectonic plates, in particular, the orthogonal interaction of the west-moving Komandorsky Island block with mainland Kamchatka. Examining the Holocene history of vertical deformation of marine wave-built terraces along the peninsular coast, we differentiated tectonic blocks undergoing uplift and tilting separated by zones of stable or subsided shorelines. We analyzed ∼200 excavations along >30 coastal profiles and quantified vertical deformation on single profiles as well as along the coast using paleoshorelines dated with marker tephras. For the past ∼2000 yr, the average rates of vertical deformation range from about –1 to +7 mm/yr. Uplift patterns are similar to those detected from historical leveling and from mapping of the stage 5e Quaternary marine terrace (ca. 120 ka). Average vertical deformation in the Holocene is highest for the shortest studied time period, from ca. A.D. 250 to 600, and it is several times faster than rates for marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 5e terraces. Vertical displacements observed along the coast are most likely coseismic and probably have included subsidence as well as uplift events. Because subsidence is generally associated with erosion, almost surely more prehistoric large earthquakes occurred than are recorded as topographic steps in these terraces. We suggest that the distribution of coastal uplift and subsidence observed along the Kamchatsky Peninsula coastline is qualitatively explained by the squeezing of the Kamchatsky Peninsula block between the Bering and Okhotsk plates, and the Komandorsky Island block.

The 2015 landslide and tsunami in Taan Fiord, Alaska

Glacial retreat in recent decades has exposed unstable slopes and allowed deep water to extend beneath some of those slopes. Slope failure at the terminus of Tyndall Glacier on 17 October 2015 sent 180 million tons of rock into Taan Fiord, Alaska. The resulting tsunami reached elevations as high as 193 m, one of the highest tsunami runups ever documented worldwide. Precursory deformation began decades before failure, and the event left a distinct sedimentary record, showing that geologic evidence can help understand past occurrences of similar events, and might provide forewarning. The event was detected within hours through automated seismological techniques, which also estimated the mass and direction of the slide - all of which were later confirmed by remote sensing. Our field observations provide a benchmark for modeling landslide and tsunami hazards. Inverse and forward modeling can provide the framework of a detailed understanding of the geologic and hazards implications of similar events. Our results call attention to an indirect effect of climate change that is increasing the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards near glaciated mountains.