Brent Boehlert

Competition for water for the food system

Although the global agricultural system will need to provide more food for a growing and wealthier population in decades to come, increasing demands for water and potential impacts of climate change pose threats to food systems. We review the primary threats to agricultural water availability, and model the potential effects of increases in municipal and industrial (M&I) water demands, environmental flow requirements (EFRs) and changing water supplies given climate change. Our models show that, together, these factors cause an 18 per cent reduction in the availability of worldwide water for agriculture by 2050. Meeting EFRs, which can necessitate more than 50 per cent of the mean annual run-off in a basin depending on its hydrograph, presents the single biggest threat to agricultural water availability. Next are increases in M&I demands, which are projected to increase upwards of 200 per cent by 2050 in developing countries with rapidly increasing populations and incomes. Climate change will affect the spatial and temporal distribution of run-off, and thus affect availability from the supply side. The combined effect of these factors can be dramatic in particular hotspots, which include northern Africa, India, China, parts of Europe, the western US and eastern Australia, among others.

Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. water quality

Climate change will have potentially significant effects on freshwater quality due to increases in river and lake temperatures, changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff, and more frequent and severe extreme events. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through effects on riparian development, river and reservoir recreation, water treatment, harmful aquatic blooms, and a range of other sectors. In this paper, we analyze the physical and economic effects of changes in freshwater quality across the contiguous U.S. in futures with and without global-scale greenhouse gas mitigation. Using a water allocation and quality model of 2119 river basins, we estimate the impacts of various projected emissions outcomes on several key water quality indicators, and monetize these impacts with a water quality index approach. Under mitigation, we find that water temperatures decrease considerably and that dissolved oxygen levels rise in response. We find that the annual economic impacts on water quality of a high emissions scenario rise from

Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

1.4 billion in 2050 to

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

4 billion in 2100, leading to present value mitigation benefits, discounted at 3%, of approximately

Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on the Supply, Management, and Use of Water Resources in the United States

17.5 billion over the 2015–2100 period.

Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment

Significance Climate change in Alaska is causing widespread environmental change that is damaging critical infrastructure. As climate change continues, infrastructure may become more vulnerable to damage, increasing risks to residents and resulting in large economic impacts. We quantified the potential economic damages to Alaska public infrastructure resulting from climate-driven changes in flooding, precipitation, near-surface permafrost thaw, and freeze–thaw cycles using high and low future climate scenarios. Additionally, we estimated coastal erosion losses for villages known to be at risk. Our findings suggest that the largest climate damages will result from flooding of roads followed by substantial near-surface permafrost thaw-related damage to buildings. Proactive adaptation efforts as well as global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could considerably reduce these damages. Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled

Toward evaluating the effect of climate change on investments in the water resources sector: insights from the forecast and analysis of hydrological indicators in developing countries

5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and

Water under a Changing and Uncertain Climate: Lessons from Climate Model Ensembles

4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the United States

1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to

Reducing the vulnerability of Albania's agricultural systems to climate change : impact assessment and adaptation options

2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and