Brett Danaher

Gone in 60 Seconds: The Impact of the Megaupload Shutdown on Movie Sales

The growth of Internet-based piracy has led to a wide-ranging debate over how copyright policy should be enforced in the digital era. In this paper we analyze the impact of the US governments shutdown of a major piracy site – Megaupload.com – on digital sales and rentals of movies.

Piracy and Copyright Enforcement Mechanisms

Much debate exists around the impact that illegal file sharing may have on the creative industries. Similarly, opinions differ regarding whether the producers of artistic works should be forced to accept any weakening of intellectual property rights resulting from illegal file sharing, or if governments should intervene to protect these rights. This chapter seeks to inform these questions by outlining what we do and do not know from existing academic research. We first discuss whether file sharing displaces sales of media goods and then discuss whether such displacement will lead to reduced incentives to produce new creative works. We continue by summarizing recent findings on what businesses can do to compete with piracy and the effectiveness of antipiracy interventions on encouraging consumers to migrate from illegal to legal consumption channels. We conclude by demonstrating that without additional empirical evidence, it will be difficult to determine the socially optimal set of strategies and government copyright policies in the digital era.

Reel Piracy: The Effect of Online Film Piracy on International Box Office Sales

Hollywood films are generally released first in the United States and then later abroad, with some variation in lags across films and countries. With the growth in movie piracy since the appearance of BitTorrent in 2003, films have become available through illegal piracy immediately after release in the US, while they are not available for legal viewing abroad until their foreign premieres in each country. We make use of this variation in international release lags to ask whether longer lags – which facilitate more local pre-release piracy – depress theatrical box office receipts, particularly after the widespread adoption of BitTorrent. We find that longer release windows are associated with decreased box office returns, even after controlling for film and country fixed effects. This relationship is much stronger in contexts where piracy is more prevalent: after BitTorrent’s adoption and in heavily-pirated genres. Our findings indicate that, as a lower bound, international box office returns in our sample were at least 7% lower than they would have been in the absence of pre-release piracy. By contrast, we do not see evidence of elevated sales displacement in US box office revenue following the adoption of BitTorrent, and we suggest that delayed legal availability of the content abroad may drive the losses to piracy.

An Empirical Analysis of Digital Music Bundling Strategies

We use panel data on digital song and album sales coupled with a quasi-random price experiment to determine own-and cross-price elasticities for songs and albums. We then develop a structural model of consumer demand to estimate welfare under various policy relevant counterfactual scenarios. This approach represents an early application of the “big data” management paradigm within the media industries and provides managers with detailed guidance on optimal pricing and marketing strategies for digital music. Our results show that tiered pricing coupled with reduced album pricing increases revenue to the labels by 18% relative to uniform pricing policies traditionally preferred by digital marketplaces while also increasing consumer surplus by 23%. Thus, optimal tiered pricing can yield a Pareto improvement over the prior status quo. Additionally, our results indicate that even without tiered pricing, unbundling albums outperforms “album-only” pricing policies that dominated the era of physical CD/cassette sales. This paper was accepted by Alok Gupta, special issue on business analytics.

Copyright enforcement in the digital age: empirical evidence and policy implications

Government-sanctioned and market-based anti-piracy measures can both mitigate economic harm from piracy.

Website Blocking Revisited: The Effect of the UK November 2014 Blocks on Consumer Behavior

Whether and how copyrights should be enforced in the digital age has become an important policy question and an important question for empirical research. In a prior study, we found that the court ordered blocking of the Pirate Bay website in the UK in April 2012 had only a small impact on total piracy and no impact on paid legal streaming, but that the blocking of 19 major piracy websites in November 2013 caused a significant decrease in total piracy and a significant increase in usage of paid legal streaming sites.In this update, we ask whether the blocking of 53 piracy websites in the UK in November 2014 — which more than doubled the total number of sites being blocked in the country — had an impact on consumer behavior and how that impact compared to the previous blocks. We found that these blocks caused a 90% drop in visits to the blocked sites while causing no increase in usage of unblocked sites. This led to a 22% decrease in total piracy for all users affected by the blocks (or a 16% decrease across all users overall). We also found that these blocks caused a 6% increase in visits to paid legal streaming sites like Netflix and a 10% increase in videos viewed on legal ad-supported streaming sites like BBC and Channel 5.The evidence suggests that blocking large numbers of sites can still “move the dial” in terms of consumer behavior, but that there may be diminishing returns as remaining pirates may be more dispersed or else have lower willingness to pay for legal content. Nonetheless, such blocks can serve to mitigate the possibility of a long-term return to the prior status quo.