Brett N. Archer

Typhoid Fever and Invasive Nontyphoid Salmonellosis, Malawi and South Africa

To determine the prevalence of invasive nontyphoid salmonellosis and typhoid fever in Malawi and South Africa, we compared case frequency and patient age distribution. Invasive nontyphoid salmonellosis showed a clear bimodal age distribution; the infection developed in women at a younger age than in men. Case frequency for typhoid fever was lower than for salmonellosis.

Outbreak of Rift Valley fever affecting veterinarians and farmers in South Africa, 2008

BACKGROUND During 2008, Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus re-emerged in South Africa as focal outbreaks in several provinces. AIMS To investigate an outbreak affecting cattle farmers and farm workers, and the staff and students of a veterinary school, assess the prevalence of infection during the outbreak, document the clinical presentation of cases, and identify potential risk factors. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional serological survey of exposed veterinarians and farmers, who were examined to determine the presence of current or recent illness. Blood specimens were collected for virus isolation, nucleic acid detection and serology. A subset was interviewed using a standardised questionnaire to obtain data on recent exposures and risk factors for infection. RESULTS Of 53 participants potentially exposed to infected domestic ruminants, 15% had evidence of recent infection and 4% evidence of past exposure to the RVF virus. The prevalence of acute infection was 21% in veterinarians compared with 9% in farmers and farm workers. After a mean incubation period of 4.3 days, the most frequent symptoms experienced included myalgia (100%), headache (88%) and malaise (75%). No asymptomatic cases were identified. Transmission, by direct contact with infected animals was the major risk factor in these professional groups. Performing animal autopsies was significantly associated with acute infection (risk ratio 16.3, 95% confidence interval 2.3 - 114.2). CONCLUSIONS Increased risks associated with veterinary practices highlight a need for the use of personal protective equipment, and identify veterinarians as a primary target group for future vaccination.

Epidemiologic Investigations into Outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever in Humans, South Africa, 2008-2011

Rift Valley fever continues to pose a notable public health threat to humans.

Searching for Sharp Drops in the Incidence of Pandemic A/H1N1 Influenza by Single Year of Age

Background During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (pH1N1), morbidity and mortality sparing was observed among the elderly population; it was hypothesized that this age group benefited from immunity to pH1N1 due to cross-reactive antibodies generated from prior infection with antigenically similar influenza viruses. Evidence from serologic studies and genetic similarities between pH1N1 and historical influenza viruses suggest that the incidence of pH1N1 cases should drop markedly in age cohorts born prior to the disappearance of H1N1 in 1957, namely those at least 52–53 years old in 2009, but the precise range of ages affected has not been delineated. Methods and Findings To test for any age-associated discontinuities in pH1N1 incidence, we aggregated laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 case data from 8 jurisdictions in 7 countries, stratified by single year of age, sex (when available), and hospitalization status. Using single year of age population denominators, we generated smoothed curves of the weighted risk ratio of pH1N1 incidence, and looked for sharp drops at varying age bandwidths, defined as a significantly negative second derivative. Analyses stratified by hospitalization status and sex were used to test alternative explanations for observed discontinuities. We found that the risk of laboratory-confirmed infection with pH1N1 declines with age, but that there was a statistically significant leveling off or increase in risk from about 45 to 50 years of age, after which a sharp drop in risk occurs until the late fifties. This trend was more pronounced in hospitalized cases and in women and was independent of the choice in smoothing parameters. The age range at which the decline in risk accelerates corresponds to the cohort born between 1951–1959 (hospitalized) and 1953–1960 (not hospitalized). Conclusions The reduced incidence of pH1N1 disease in older individuals shows a detailed age-specific pattern consistent with protection conferred by exposure to influenza A/H1N1 viruses circulating before 1957.

Measles Outbreak in South Africa: Epidemiology of Laboratory-Confirmed Measles Cases and Assessment of Intervention, 2009–2011

Background Since 1995, measles vaccination at nine and 18 months has been routine in South Africa; however, coverage seldom reached >95%. We describe the epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients and assess the impact of the nationwide mass vaccination campaign during the 2009 to 2011 measles outbreak in South Africa. Methods Serum specimens collected from patients with suspected-measles were tested for measles-specific IgM antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and genotypes of a subset were determined. To estimate the impact of the nationwide mass vaccination campaign, we compared incidence in the seven months pre- (1 September 2009–11 April 2010) and seven months post-vaccination campaign (24 May 2010–31 December 2010) periods in seven provinces of South Africa. Results A total of 18,431 laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients were reported from all nine provinces of South Africa (cumulative incidence 37 per 100,000 population). The highest cumulative incidence per 100,000 population was in children aged <1 year (603), distributed as follows: <6 months (302/100,000), 6 to 8 months (1083/100,000) and 9 to 11 months (724/100,000). Forty eight percent of case-patients were ≥5 years (cumulative incidence 54/100,000). Cumulative incidence decreased with increasing age to 2/100,000 in persons ≥40 years. A single strain of measles virus (genotype B3) circulated throughout the outbreak. Prior to the vaccination campaign, cumulative incidence in the targeted vs. non-targeted age group was 5.9-fold higher, decreasing to 1.7 fold following the campaign (P<0.001) and an estimated 1,380 laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients were prevented. Conclusion We observed a reduction in measles incidence following the nationwide mass vaccination campaign even though it was conducted approximately one year after the outbreak started. A booster dose at school entry may be of value given the high incidence in persons >5 years.

School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences

BackgroundSchool closure is a non-pharmaceutical intervention that was considered in many national pandemic plans developed prior to the start of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, and received considerable attention during the event. Here, we retrospectively review and compare national and local experiences with school closures in several countries during the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. Our intention is not to make a systematic review of country experiences; rather, it is to present the diversity of school closure experiences and provide examples from national and local perspectives.MethodsData were gathered during and following a meeting, organized by the European Centres for Disease Control, on school closures held in October 2010 in Stockholm, Sweden. A standard data collection form was developed and sent to all participants. The twelve participating countries and administrative regions (Bulgaria, China, France, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Serbia, South Africa, Thailand, United Kingdom, and United States) provided data.ResultsOur review highlights the very diverse national and local experiences on school closures during the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. The processes including who was in charge of making recommendations and who was in charge of making the decision to close, the school-based control strategies, the extent of school closures, the public health tradition of responses and expectations on school closure varied greatly between countries. Our review also discusses the many challenges associated with the implementation of this intervention and makes recommendations for further practical work in this area.ConclusionsThe single most important factor to explain differences observed between countries may have been the different public health practises and public expectations concerning school closures and influenza in the selected countries.

Introduction of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A Virus Subtype H1N1 Into South Africa: Clinical Presentation, Epidemiology, and Transmissibility of the First 100 Cases

BACKGROUND We documented the introduction of 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) into South Africa and describe its clinical presentation, epidemiology, and transmissibility. METHODS We conducted a prospective descriptive study of the first 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of A(H1N1)pdm09 infections identified through active case finding and surveillance. Infected patients and the attending clinicians were interviewed, and close contacts were followed up to investigate household transmission. FINDINGS The first case was confirmed on 14 June 2009, and by 15 July 2009, 100 cases were diagnosed. Forty-two percent of patients reported international travel within 7 days prior to onset of illness. Patients ranged in age from 4 to 70 years (median age, 21.5 years). Seventeen percent of household contacts developed influenza-like illness, and 10% of household contacts had laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. We found a mean serial interval (± SD) of 2.3 ± 1.3 days (range, 1-5 days) between successive laboratory-confirmed cases in the transmission chain. CONCLUSIONS A(H1N1)pdm09 established itself rapidly in South Africa. Transmissibility of the virus was comparable to observations from outside of Africa and to seasonal influenza virus strains.

Reproductive Number and Serial Interval of the First Wave of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus in South Africa

Background/Objective Describing transmissibility parameters of past pandemics from diverse geographic sites remains critical to planning responses to future outbreaks. We characterize the transmissibility of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (hereafter pH1N1) in South Africa during 2009 by estimating the serial interval (SI), the initial effective reproductive number (initial Rt) and the temporal variation of Rt. Methods We make use of data from a central registry of all pH1N1 laboratory-confirmed cases detected throughout South Africa. Whenever date of symptom onset is missing, we estimate it from the date of specimen collection using a multiple imputation approach repeated 100 times for each missing value. We apply a likelihood-based method (method 1) for simultaneous estimation of initial Rt and the SI; estimate initial Rt from SI distributions established from prior field studies (method 2); and the Wallinga and Teunis method (method 3) to model the temporal variation of Rt. Results 12,360 confirmed pH1N1 cases were reported in the central registry. During the period of exponential growth of the epidemic (June 21 to August 3, 2009), we simultaneously estimate a mean Rt of 1.47 (95% CI: 1.30–1.72) and mean SI of 2.78 days (95% CI: 1.80–3.75) (method 1). Field studies found a mean SI of 2.3 days between primary cases and laboratory-confirmed secondary cases, and 2.7 days when considering both suspected and confirmed secondary cases. Incorporating the SI estimate from field studies using laboratory-confirmed cases, we found an initial Rt of 1.43 (95% CI: 1.38–1.49) (method 2). The mean Rt peaked at 2.91 (95% CI: 0.85–2.91) on June 21, as the epidemic commenced, and Rt>1 was sustained until August 22 (method 3). Conclusions Transmissibility characteristics of pH1N1 in South Africa are similar to estimates reported by countries outside of Africa. Estimations using the likelihood-based method are in agreement with field findings.

Determining the dynamics of influenza transmission by age

BackgroundIt is widely accepted that influenza transmission dynamics vary by age; however methods to quantify the reproductive number by age group are limited. We introduce a simple method to estimate the reproductive number by modifying the method originally proposed by Wallinga and Teunis and using existing information on contact patterns between age groups. We additionally perform a sensitivity analysis to determine the potential impact of differential healthcare seeking patterns by age. We illustrate this method using data from the 2009 H1N1 Influenza pandemic in Gauteng Province, South Africa.ResultsOur results are consistent with others in showing decreased transmission with age. We show that results can change markedly when we make the account for differential healthcare seeking behaviors by age.ConclusionsWe show substantial heterogeneity in transmission by age group during the Influenza A H1N1 pandemic in South Africa. This information can greatly assist in targeting interventions and implementing social distancing measures.

Serum levels of inflammatory cytokines in Rift Valley fever patients are indicative of severe disease

BackgroundRift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis affecting domestic and wild ruminants, camels and humans. Outbreaks of RVF are characterized by a sudden onset of abortions and high mortality amongst domestic ruminants. Humans develop disease ranging from a mild flu-like illness to more severe complications including hemorrhagic syndrome, ocular and neurological lesions and death. During the RVF outbreak in South Africa in 2010/11, a total of 278 human cases were laboratory confirmed, including 25 deaths. The role of the host inflammatory response to RVF pathogenesis is not completely understood.MethodsVirus load in serum from human fatal and non-fatal cases was determined by standard tissue culture infective dose 50 (TCID50) titration on Vero cells. Patient serum concentration of chemokines and cytokines involved in inflammatory responses (IL-8, RANTES, CXCL9, MCP-1, IP-10, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-10, TNF and IL-12p70) was determined using cytometric bead assays and flow cytometry.ResultsFatal cases had a 1-log10 higher TCID50/ml serum concentration of RVF virus (RVFV) than survivors (p < 0.05). There were no significant sequence differences between isolates recovered from fatal and non-fatal cases. Chemokines and pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines were detected at significantly increased (IL-8, CXCL9, MCP-1, IP-10, IL-10) or decreased (RANTES) levels when comparing fatal cases to infected survivors and uninfected controls, or when comparing combined infected patients to uninfected controls.ConclusionsThe results suggest that regulation of the host inflammatory responses plays an important role in the outcome of RVFV infection in humans. Dysregulation of the inflammatory response contributes to a fatal outcome. The cytokines and chemokines identified in this study that correlate with fatal outcomes warrant further investigation as markers for disease severity.