Bri-Mathias Hodge

Wind power forecasting error distributions over multiple timescales

Wind forecasting is an important consideration in integrating large amounts of wind power into the electricity grid. The wind power forecast error distribution assumed can have a large impact on the confidence intervals produced in wind power forecasting. In this work we examine the shape of the persistence model error distribution for ten different wind plants in the ERCOT system over multiple timescales. Comparisons are made between the experimental distribution shape and that of the normal distribution. The shape of the distribution is found to change significantly with the length of the forecasting timescale. The Cauchy distribution is proposed as a model distribution for the forecast errors and model parameters are fitted. Finally, the differences in confidence intervals obtained using the Cauchy distribution and the normal distribution are compared.

Wind Power Ramp Event Forecasting Using a Stochastic Scenario Generation Method

Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years as they have the potential to impact the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual wind power data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) were selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

Achieving a 100% Renewable Grid: Operating Electric Power Systems with Extremely High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

What does it mean to achieve a 100% renewable grid? Several countries already meet or come close to achieving this goal. Iceland, for example, supplies 100% of its electricity needs with either geothermal or hydropower. Other countries that have electric grids with high fractions of renewables based on hydropower include Norway (97%), Costa Rica (93%), Brazil (76%), and Canada (62%). Hydropower plants have been used for decades to create a relatively inexpensive, renewable form of energy, but these systems are limited by natural rainfall and geographic topology. Around the world, most good sites for large hydropower resources have already been developed. So how do other areas achieve 100% renewable grids? Variable renewable energy (VRE), such as wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, will be a major contributor, and with the reduction in costs for these technologies during the last five years, large-scale deployments are happening around the world.

Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

The rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

An Optimized Swinging Door Algorithm for Identifying Wind Ramping Events

With the increasing penetration of renewable energy in recent years, wind power ramp events (WPREs) have started affecting the economic and reliable operation of power grids. In this paper, we develop an optimized swinging door algorithm (OpSDA) to improve the state of the art in WPREs detection. The swinging door algorithm (SDA) is utilized to segregate wind power data through a piecewise linear approximation. A dynamic programming algorithm is performed to optimize the segments by: 1)merging adjacent segments with the same ramp changing direction; 2)handling wind power bumps; and 3)postprocessing insignificant-ramps intervals. Measured wind power data from two case studies are utilized to evaluate the performance of the proposed OpSDA. Results show that the OpSDA provides 1)significantly better performance than the SDA and 2)equal-to-better performance compared to the L1-Ramp Detect with Sliding Window (L1-SW) method with significantly less computational time.

Assessment of Simulated Wind Data Requirements for Wind Integration Studies

Wind integration studies are now routinely undertaken by utilities and system operators to investigate the operational impacts of the variability and uncertainty of wind power on the grid. There are widely adopted techniques and assumptions that are used to model the wind data used in these studies. As wind penetration levels increase, some of the assumptions and methodologies are no longer valid and new methodologies have been devised. Based on involvement in conducting studies, reviewing studies, and/or developing datasets for studies in the Western Interconnect, the Eastern Interconnect, Hawaii, and other regions, the authors report on the evolution of techniques to better model the wind power output for cases with high penetrations of wind energy.

Operational Analysis and Methods for Wind Integration Studies

Wind integration studies are increasingly important tools to estimate the impacts that the addition of large amounts of variable and uncertain generation will have on the electricity grid. As the number of these studies has increased in recent years, the sophistication of the methods and assumptions utilized has also increased. These methods have had to evolve with increasing penetration rates and to study changing research questions. In this work, the authors report on the state of the art in this area and make suggestions for improving the methods and assumptions used for cases with high levels of wind power.

Dynamic Price Vector Formation Model-Based Automatic Demand Response Strategy for PV-Assisted EV Charging Stations

A real-time price (RTP)-based automatic demand response (ADR) strategy for PV-assisted electric vehicle (EV) Charging Station (PVCS) without vehicle to grid is proposed. The charging process is modeled as a dynamic linear program instead of the normal day-ahead and real-time regulation strategy, to capture the advantages of both global and real-time optimization. Different from conventional price forecasting algorithms, a dynamic price vector formation model is proposed based on a clustering algorithm to form an RTP vector for a particular day. A dynamic feasible energy demand region (DFEDR) model considering grid voltage profiles is designed to calculate the lower and upper bounds. A deduction method is proposed to deal with the unknown information of future intervals, such as the actual stochastic arrival and departure times of EVs, which make the DFEDR model suitable for global optimization. Finally, both the comparative cases articulate the advantages of the developed methods and the validity in reducing electricity costs, mitigating peak charging demand, and improving PV self-consumption of the proposed strategy are verified through simulation scenarios.

Machine learning based multi-physical-model blending for enhancing renewable energy forecast - improvement via situation dependent error correction

With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

RAMP FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FROM IMPROVED SHORT-TERM WIND POWER FORECASTING

The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.Copyright