Brian C. Thiede

Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011

We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15-40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related inter-province migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates.

America's Working Poor Conceptualization, Measurement, and New Estimates

This article addresses measurement challenges that have stymied contemporary research on the working poor. The authors review previously used measurement schemes and discuss conceptual assumptions that underlie each. Using 2013 March Current Population Survey data, the authors estimate national- and race-specific rates of working poverty using more than 125 measures. The authors then evaluate the association between each measure and a latent construct of working poverty using factor analysis and develop a working poverty index derived from these results. Finally, the authors estimate multivariate regression models to identify key social and demographic risk factors for poverty among workers. The authors’ national estimates of working poverty range from 2% to nearly 19% and are highly sensitive to alternative assumptions. The authors’ analyses find that the latent construct is most highly correlated with empirical measures of working poverty that include part-time or part-year employment and that use poverty income thresholds that include both the poor and near poor. Crude rates and conditional risks of poverty among workers vary considerably among racial groups. This article provides a conceptual and empirical baseline for decisions about how best to estimate the magnitude and composition of Americas working poor population.

The Great Recession and America's Geography of Unemployment

BACKGROUND The Great Recession of 2007-2009 was the most severe and lengthy economic crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression. The impacts on the population were multi-dimensional, but operated largely through local labor markets. OBJECTIVE To examine differences in recession-related changes in county unemployment rates and assess how population and place characteristics shaped these patterns. METHODS We calculate and decompose Theil Indexes to describe recession-related changes in the distribution of unemployment rates between counties and states. We use exploratory spatial statistics to identify geographic clusters of counties that experienced similar changes in unemployment. We use spatial regression to evaluate associations between county-level recession impacts on unemployment and demographic composition, industrial structure, and state context. RESULTS The recession was associated with increased inequality between county labor markets within states, but declining between-state differences. Counties that experienced disproportionate recession-related increases in unemployment were spatially clustered and characterized by large shares of historically disadvantaged racial and ethnic minority populations, low educational attainment, and heavy reliance on pro-cyclical industries. Associations between these sources of vulnerability were partially explained by unobserved state-level factors. CONCLUSIONS The local consequences of macroeconomic trends are associated with county population characteristics, as well as the structural contexts and policy environments in which they are embedded. The recession placed upward pressure on within-state inequality between local labor market conditions. CONTRIBUTION To present new estimates of the recessions impact on local labor markets, quantify how heterogeneous impacts affected the distribution of unemployment prevalence, and identify county characteristics associated with disproportionately large recession-related increases in unemployment.

Resilience and development among ultra-poor households in rural Ethiopia

Abstract This paper describes subjective understandings of resilience among residents of a community in southern Ethiopia. It also considers the implications of using this term as a mobilising concept for research and practice in a highly resource-constrained context. Understandings of resilience among ultra-poor households highlight a tension between meeting short-term subsistence needs and taking actions that contribute to building resilience against future shocks and stresses. Responses also underline the need to think beyond resilience-building at the individual or household level, and consider the structural conditions that limit the efficacy of micro-level interventions and contribute to the shocks and stresses that resilience is to be built against. The need to think critically about the spatial and temporal scales at which resilience is enhanced or constrained was also manifest in a brief analysis of a development intervention taking place in Kejima. This intervention addressed a number of the household-level needs identified by respondents from the community, but failed to address major structural constraints and sources of risk, likely reflecting both epistemic positions and practical concerns among development practitioners.

Marriage, Work, and Racial Inequalities in Poverty: Evidence From the United States

This paper explores recent racial and ethnic inequalities in poverty, estimating the share of racial poverty differentials that can be explained by variation in family structure and workforce participation. The authors use logistic regression to estimate the association between poverty and race, family structure, and workforce participation. They then decompose between-race differences in poverty risk to quantify how racial disparities in marriage and work explain observed inequalities in the log odds of poverty. They estimate that 47.7-48.9% of black-white differences in poverty risk can be explained by between-group variance in these two factors, while only 4.3-4.5% of the Hispanic-white differential in poverty risk can be explained by these variables. These findings underscore the continued association between racial disparities in poverty and those in labor and marriage markets. However, clear racial differences in the origin of poverty suggest that family- and worked-related policy interventions will not have uniformly effective or evenly distributed impacts on poverty reduction.

Born Poor? Racial Diversity, Inequality, and the American Pipeline

The authors examine racial disparities in infants’ exposure to economic disadvantage at the family and local area levels. Using data from the 2008–2014 files of the American Community Survey, the authors provide an up-to-date empirical benchmark of newborns’ exposure to poverty. Large shares of Hispanic (36.5 percent) and black (43.2 percent) infants are born poor, though white infants are also overrepresented among the poor (17.7 percent). The authors then estimate regression models to identify risk factors and perform decompositions to identify compositional factors underlying between-race differences. Although more than half of the black-white poverty gap is explained by differences in family structure and employment, these factors account for less than one quarter of white-Hispanic differences. The results also highlight the unmet need for social protection among babies born to poor families lacking access to assistance programs and the safety net. Hispanic infants are particularly likely to be doubly disadvantaged in this manner. Moreover, large and disproportionate shares of today’s black (48.3 percent) and Hispanic (40.5 percent) babies are born into poor families and places with poverty rates above 20 percent. These results raise important questions about persistent and possibly growing racial inequality as America makes its way to a majority-minority society as early as 2043.

Mexican‐American Educational Stagnation: The Role of Family‐Structure Change

High school dropout rates among Mexican Americans decline markedly between the first and second immigrant generations and, consequently, move closer to non-Hispanic white levels. However, the third generation makes little progress in closing the remaining gap with whites despite their parents having more schooling on average than those of the second generation. Utilizing 2007–2013 Current Population Survey data, we examine whether an inter-generational shift away from two-parent families contributes to this educational stagnation. We also consider the effect of changes in sibship size. The analysis involves performing a partial regression decomposition of differences between second- and third-generation Mexican-American adolescents (aged 16–17 years) in the likelihood of having dropped out. We find that Mexican third-generation teens are close to nine percentage points less likely than second-generation peers to live with two parents. The decomposition results suggest that this change in family structure offsets a substantial portion of the negative influence of rising parental education on third-generation dropout risk.

A Demographic Deficit? Local Population Aging and Access to Services in Rural America, 1990–2010†

Population aging is being experienced by many rural communities in the U.S., as evidenced by increases in the median age and the high incidence of natural population decrease. The implications of these changes in population structure for the daily lives of the residents in such communities have received little attention. We address this issue in the current study by examining the relationship between population aging and the availability of service-providing establishments in the rural U.S. between 1990 and 2010. Using data mainly from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate a series of fixed-effects regression models to identify the relationship between median age and establishment counts net of changes in overall population and other factors. We find a significant, but non-linear relationship between county median age and the total number of service-providing establishments, and counts of most specific types of services. We find a positive effect of total population size across all of our models. This total population effect is consistent with other research, but the independent effects of age structure that we observe represent a novel finding and suggest that age structure is a salient factor in local rural development and community wellbeing.

Factors Associated With the Risk of Acute Malnutrition Among Children Aged 6 to 36 Months in Households Targeted by an Emergency Cash Transfer Program

Background: Assessing whether and how the expenditure of emergency cash transfer programs (CTPs) relates to child nutritional status is a necessary step for informed program design and targeting. Objective: We hypothesized that greater child food expenditures would have a protective effect against the risk of acute malnutrition in the context of a food crisis in Niger. Methods: We investigated the relationship between food and medical expenditures and acute malnutrition in children aged 6 to 36 months through an observational cohort study of 420 households enrolled in an emergency CTP in Niger. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the risk of acute malnutrition while adjusting for relevant child and household characteristics. Results: Seventy-four (18% of the cohort) children developed acute malnutrition. The risk was 1.79 times higher among ill children than healthy children (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10-2.92; P < .05), nearly 3 times higher among children in the poorest households than those in wealthier households (HR: 2.98; 95% CI: 1.86-4.78; P < .001), and 2.85 times lower with each unit increase in baseline weight-for-height Z score (HR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.23-0.53; P < .001). Food expenditures were not associated with risk (HR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.87-1.07; P > .05). Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance of the health-related determinants of child undernutrition and suggest that a potential role of emergency CTPs may be to enable and promote health service access where services exist. They also indicate a need for more sustained poverty reduction and undernutrition prevention activities in concert with well-timed and strategic use of emergency interventions.