Brian D. M. Tom

Changing Patterns in Mortality and Disease Outcomes for Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Objective Survival of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) has improved significantly, but new morbidities have emerged, leading to altered patterns of outcome in this disease. We examined changes in mortality and other outcomes over time in a large SLE cohort. Methods A group of 1241 patients from the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic followed prospectively were divided into 4 entry cohorts — 1: 1970–1978, 2: 1979–1987, 3: 1988–1996, 4: 1997–2005. These cohorts were followed through four 9-year calendar periods defined over the same intervals. Both cohort and calendar effects were assessed for the following outcomes: mortality (standardized mortality ratio; SMR), disease activity over time (adjusted mean SLEDAI; AMS), cumulative damage (Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Damage Index; SDI), coronary artery disease (CAD), and osteonecrosis (ON). Cox regression models were used to further investigate mortality and the influence on it of the disease-related factors. Results Over the 36-year period of the study, 211 deaths occurred. The overall SMR in the first and last decades were 12.60 (95% CI: 9.13, 17.39) and 3.46 (95% CI: 2.71, 4.40) respectively. When SMR were stratified by the entry cohort and calendar period, there is evidence of a calendar-period effect but no cohort effect. The AMS decreased over the decades, while SDI, CAD, and ON increased. There were significant detrimental effects for male sex, CAD, AMS, SDI, and use of immunosuppressive drugs and significant protective effects for use of antimalarials and the effect of calendar period on mortality. Conclusion Our study demonstrates improved survival in patients with SLE over a 36-year period. Disease-related variables included in the model are important factors for mortality in this SLE cohort, but could not completely explain the trend of improved survival over calendar period observed.

A randomized placebo-controlled trial of MTX in PsA

Objective. MTX is widely used to treat synovitis in PsA without supporting trial evidence. The aim of our study was to test the value of MTX in the first large randomized placebo-controlled trial (RCT) in PsA. Methods. A 6-month double-blind RCT compared MTX (15 mg/week) with placebo in active PsA. The primary outcome was PsA response criteria (PsARC). Other outcomes included ACR20, DAS-28 and their individual components. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation methods. Treatments were compared using logistic regression analysis (adjusted for age, sex, disease duration and, where appropriate, individual baseline scores). Results. Four hundred and sixty-two patients were screened and 221 recruited. One hundred and nine patients received MTX and 112 received placebo. Forty-four patients were lost to follow-up (21 MTX, 23 placebo). Twenty-six patients discontinued treatment (14 MTX, 12 placebo). Comparing MTX with placebo in all randomized patients at 6 months showed no significant effect on PsARC [odds ratio (OR) 1.77, 95% CI 0.97, 3.23], ACR20 (OR 2.00, 95% CI 0.65, 6.22) or DAS-28 (OR 1.70, 95% CI 0.90, 3.17). There were also no significant treatment effects on tender and swollen joint counts, ESR, CRP, HAQ and pain. The only benefits of MTX were reductions in patient and assessor global scores and skin scores at 6 months (P = 0.03, P < 0.001 and P = 0.02, respectively). There were no unexpected adverse events. Conclusions. This trial of active PsA found no evidence for MTX improving synovitis and consequently raises questions about its classification as a disease-modifying drug in PsA. Trial registration. Current Controlled Trials, www.controlled-trials.com, ISRCTN:54376151.

Development and initial validation of a screening questionnaire for psoriatic arthritis: The Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Screen (ToPAS)

Objective: To develop and validate a psoriatic arthritis (PsA) screening questionnaire: the Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Screen (ToPAS). Methods: The ToPAS was developed through review of items seen in patients with PsA and evaluation by patients with PsA and patients with other rheumatological conditions, and was administered to consecutive consenting patients attending five clinics: PsA, psoriasis, general dermatology, general rheumatology (excluding PsA patients) and family medicine. All patients were assessed by a rheumatologist according to a standard protocol. A three-step analysis strategy was adopted: a stepwise logistic regression to identify the questions most important in discriminating between those with and without PsA; a logistic model was fitted to three clinically relevant domains for PsA: skin, joints and nails; and a simpler weighting of each of the domains used in step 2. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were obtained based on these various models. Results: In all, there were 134 patients from the PsA clinic, 123 with psoriasis, 118 from dermatology, 135 from rheumatology and 178 from family medicine. A simplified discriminatory score based on the skin, joint and nail domains gave results comparable to other methods with an observed overall sensitivity and specificity, based on a single cut point, of 86.8% and 93.1%. When the patients with PsA were compared with each of the other four patient groups individually, the sensitivity and specificity of the ToPAS were: psoriasis 89.1%, 86.3%; dermatology 91.9%, 95.2%; rheumatology 92.6%, 85.7%; and family medicine 90.4%, 100%. Conclusion: Our simplified index is very good at classifying those who are not diagnosed with PsA and those who are diagnosed with PsA.

Lack of effect of intravenous pamidronate on fracture incidence and bone mineral density after orthotopic liver transplantation

BACKGROUND/AIMS Increased rates of bone loss and fracture have been reported after liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a pre-transplant infusion of pamidronate on fracture incidence and bone loss during the first year after transplantation. METHODS Ninety-nine adults awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) were randomised to pamidronate or no treatment. Spinal X-rays were obtained at baseline and after 12 months. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured at the lumbar spine (L1-4) and femoral neck at baseline, and 3, 6, and 12 months after OLT. RESULTS The incidence of fractures in the first year after OLT was 8%, four patients within the pamidronate treated group and two in the untreated group developing fractures (P=0.40). No significant spinal bone loss occurred in either group during the first year. However, significant and sustained bone loss occurred at the femoral neck in both groups. No significant differences were seen between pamidronate treated or untreated groups at either site. CONCLUSIONS Pamidronate in the regimen used had no significant effect on fracture rate or BMD post-transplant. The low incidence of fracture and absence of spinal bone loss indicate that bone disease after liver transplantation may be less common than previously reported.

Contrast-enhanced MR angiography for carotid disease Diagnostic and potential clinical impact

Objective: To compare contrast-enhanced MR angiography (CEMRA) with intra-arterial digital subtraction angiography (DSA) for evaluating carotid stenosis. Methods: A total of 167 consecutive symptomatic patients, scheduled for DSA following screening duplex ultrasound (DUS), were prospectively recruited to have CEMRA. Three independent readers reported on each examination in a blinded and random manner. Agreement was assessed using the Bland-Altman method. Diagnostic and potential clinical impact of CEMRA was evaluated, singly and in combination with DUS. Results: CEMRA tended to overestimate stenosis by a mean bias ranging from 2.4 to 3.8%. A significant part of the disagreement between CEMRA and DSA was directly caused by interobserver variability. For detection of severe stenosis, CEMRA alone had a sensitivity of 93.0% and specificity of 80.6%, with a diagnostic misclassification rate of 15.0% (n = 30). More importantly, clinical decision-making would, however, have been potentially altered only in 6.0% of cases (n = 12). The combination of concordant DUS and CEMRA reduced diagnostic misclassification rate to 10.1% (n = 19) at the expense of 47 (24.9%) discordant cases needing to proceed to DSA. An intermediate approach of selective DUS review resulted in a marginally worse diagnostic misclassification rate of 11.6% (n = 22) but with only 6.8% of discordant cases (n = 13). Conclusions: DSA remains the gold standard for carotid imaging. The clinical misclassification rate with CEMRA, however, is acceptably low to support its safe use instead of DSA. The appropriateness of combination strategies depends on institutional choice and cost-effectiveness issues.

First cleavage of the mouse embryo responds to change in egg shape at fertilization.

Although mouse development is regulative, the cleavage pattern of the embryo is not random. The first cleavage tends to relate to the site of the previous meiosis. Sperm entry might provide a second cue, but evidence for and against this is indirect and has been debated. To resolve whether sperm entry position relates to the first cleavage, we have followed development from fertilization by time-lapse imaging. This directly showed cytokinesis passes close to the site of the previous meiosis and to both the sperm entry site and trajectory of the male pronucleus in a significant majority of eggs. We detected asymmetric distribution of Par6 protein in relation to the site of meiosis, but not sperm entry. Unexpectedly, we found the egg becomes flattened upon fertilization in an actin-mediated process. The sperm entry position tends to lie at one end of the short axis along which cleavage will pass. When we manipulated eggs to change their shape, this repositioned the cleavage plane such that eggs divided along their experimentally imposed short axis. Such manipulated eggs were able to develop to term, emphasizing the regulative nature of their development.

Is there disparity between risk and incidence of cardiovascular disease after liver transplant

Background. Hypertension and hypercholesterolemia are recognized complications of liver transplantation, but whether they contribute to the development of cardiovascular disease is uncertain. We aimed first to determine the prevalence of risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) after liver transplantation and second to study the effect of liver transplantation on the predicted 10-year risk of developing CHD and the incidence of cardiovascular events in comparison with a matched local population. Methods. Data on blood pressure, serum lipids, weight, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke were obtained retrospectively from the case notes of 181 consecutive adult liver transplant recipients (median follow-up 54 months). The Framingham coronary risk equations were used to calculate the 10-year probability of developing CHD. Results. The prevalences of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia after transplantation were 77% and 62%, respectively. The predicted 10-year risk of CHD increased from 6.9% before transplantation to 11.5% at 1 year after transplantation, whereas that of a matched local population was 7%. Compared with a matched nontransplant population, the incidence ratios for MI and stroke were 0.55 (95% confidence interval, 0.01–3.06 ) and 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 0.18–5.22), respectively. No patients died from MI or stroke. Conclusions. Liver transplant recipients have a high prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease, exceeding that of the general population, and have a higher predicted risk of developing CHD. Despite this, there were no deaths from CHD or stroke during the study period.

Rhythmic actomyosin-driven contractions induced by sperm entry predict mammalian embryo viability

Fertilization-induced cytoplasmic flows are a conserved feature of eggs in many species. However, until now the importance of cytoplasmic flows for the development of mammalian embryos has been unknown. Here, by combining a rapid imaging of the freshly fertilized mouse egg with advanced image analysis based on particle image velocimetry, we show that fertilization induces rhythmical cytoplasmic movements that coincide with pulsations of the protrusion forming above the sperm head. We find that these movements are caused by contractions of the actomyosin cytoskeleton triggered by Ca2+ oscillations induced by fertilization. Most importantly, the relationship between the movements and the events of egg activation makes it possible to use the movements alone to predict developmental potential of the zygote. In conclusion, this method offers, thus far, the earliest and fastest, non-invasive way to predict the viability of eggs fertilized in vitro and therefore can potentially improve greatly the prospects for IVF treatment.

Mapping the platelet profile for functional genomic studies and demonstration of the effect size of the GP6 locus

Summary.  Background: Evidence suggests the wide variation in platelet response within the population is genetically controlled. Unraveling the complex relationship between sequence variation and platelet phenotype requires accurate and reproducible measurement of platelet response. Objective: To develop a methodology suitable for measuring signaling pathway‐specific platelet phenotype, to use this to measure platelet response in a large cohort, and to demonstrate the effect size of sequence variation in a relevant model gene. Methods: Three established platelet assays were evaluated: mobilization of [Ca2+]i, aggregometry and flow cytometry, each in response to adenosine 5′‐diphosphate (ADP) or the glycoprotein (GP) VI‐specific crosslinked collagen‐related peptide (CRP). Flow cytometric measurement of fibrinogen binding and P‐selectin expression in response to a single, intermediate dose of each agonist gave the best combination of reproducibility and inter‐individual variability and was used to measure the platelet response in 506 healthy volunteers. Pathway specificity was ensured by blocking the main subsidiary signaling pathways. Results: Individuals were identified who were hypo‐ or hyper‐responders for both pathways, or who had differential responses to the two agonists, or between outcomes. 89 individuals, retested three months later using the same methodology, showed high concordance between the two visits in all four assays (r2 = 0.872, 0.868, 0.766 and 0.549); all subjects retaining their phenotype at recall. The effect of sequence variation at the GP6 locus accounted for ∼35% of the variation in the CRP‐XL response. Conclusion: Genotyping‐phenotype association studies in a well‐characterized, large cohort provides a powerful strategy to measure the effect of sequence variation in genes regulating the platelet response.

Prevalence of malignancy in psoriatic arthritis

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence and types of malignancy in a large cohort of patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA), and to compare this rate with that in the general population. METHODS A cohort analysis of patients who were followed up prospectively from 1978 to 2004 at the University of Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Clinic was performed. Patients were followed up at 6-12-month intervals according to a standard protocol, which included recording of malignancy, and tracked on a computer database. The cohort was linked with a provincial database to find malignancies that may have been missed by the protocol or developed after patients were lost to followup. Data were presented and analyzed using descriptive statistics and the Cox regression model with robust estimate of variance. Rates of first malignancy in the cohort were compared with rates in the population to derive standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). RESULTS Of the 665 patients included, 68 (10.2%) developed a malignancy at an average age of 62.4 years. The most frequently seen malignancies were breast (20.6%), lung (13.2%), and prostate (8.8%) cancer. The SIR for all cancers was 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.77-1.24). Overall cancer type-specific SIRs were 0.69 (95% CI 0.26-1.83) for hematologic and 0.88 (95% CI 0.46-1.69) for lung cancer. In females, the SIR for breast cancer was 1.55 (95% CI 0.92-2.62), and in males, the SIR for prostate cancer was 0.65 (95% CI 0.29-1.44). CONCLUSION Overall, 10.2% of patients in the Toronto PsA cohort developed cancer. The most frequent cancers were breast, lung, and prostate cancer. The incidence of malignancy in the large PsA cohort did not differ from that in the general population.