Brian J. Fogarty

Presidential Campaigning in the 2002 Congressional Elections

Many different elements make up the strength of a president, but a president with a majority in both houses of Congress works from a position of power. While a congressional majority does not guarantee that a president can pass his agenda (witness Jimmy Carter and the first two years of the Clinton presidency), a president that has majority in Congress will have natural allies instead of natural enemies when he works to enact his legislative agenda.

Scandals, News Coverage, and the 2006 Congressional Elections

In this study, I examine how the local news media covered members of Congress tied to the Jack Abramoff scandal during the 2006 congressional elections. Previous research suggests heavy coverage of any politicians tied to scandals, particularly during the campaign season. Using a multilevel data analysis approach, I show the local news media strategically considered whether to cover members under suspicion of scandal during the election season taking into account race competitiveness and challengers’ actions. Specifically, local newspapers paid the most attention to the Abramoff scandal when the incumbent was in a competitive race and the challenger was actively pushing the scandal.

The Effects of Media Interpretation for Citizen Evaluations of Politicians' Messages

Although politicians prefer to communicate directly with the public, political sound bites in the nightly news are shrinking and primetime presidential press conferences are becoming increasingly uncommon. Instead, people primarily receive the messages of politicians as interpreted by journalists. What are the consequences of this interpretation for how citizens evaluate political messages? This article compares how people evaluate mediated political accounts and those delivered by politicians directly. Using a set of experiments, this article considers whether the power of politicians to inform and persuade people is limited or enhanced through the interpretation of journalists. This article finds that although people respond similarly to message content, whether from the politicians or from the media, evaluations of the message source and political processes are improved when politicians communicate directly with the public.

News attention to voter fraud in the 2008 and 2012 US elections

The nature and frequency of voter fraud figure prominently in many ongoing policy debates about election laws in the United States. Policy makers frequently cite allegations of voter fraud reported in the press during these debates. While recent studies find that voter fraud is a rare event, a substantial segment of the public believes that voter fraud is a rampant problem in the United States. It stands to reason that public beliefs are shaped by news coverage of voter fraud. However, there is very little extant academic research on how the news media, at any level, covers allegations or documented cases of voter fraud. This paper examines local newspaper attention to voter fraud in each of the 50 states during the 2008 and 2012 US elections. The results show that local coverage of voter fraud during the 2012 elections was greatest in presidential swing states and states that passed restrictive voting laws prior to the 2012 election. No evidence that newspaper attention is related to the rate of actual voter fraud cases in each state was found. The findings are consistent with other studies indicating that parties and campaigns sought to place voter fraud on the political agenda in strategically important states to motivate their voting base ahead of the election.

Local newspapers, House members, and source usage

Abstract Political communication scholarship has established the standard operating procedures for national media sourcing of government and politicians. The literature shows a strong reliance by the news media on official and national-level news sources that support the status quo. This paper investigates the less known subject of local newspaper sourcing practices on local House members. House members rely on the local media to communication with constituents but we have little insight into who provides the source material for coverage. Results show that local papers often parallel the national political media by depending on official and nonlocal sources for reporting ostensibly local political angles. Further, members’ press releases, papers’ size, and presence of a Washington bureau help explain local papers’ sourcing practices.

The nature of local news media issue coverage of U.S. House members

Abstract In this paper, I examine local newspaper issue coverage of House members after the campaign season has ended. While research on news coverage of campaign issues has been thorough, considerably less attention has been placed on issue coverage outside of campaigns. This is particularly the case for the local news media. Using an extensive content analysis of House member local newspaper coverage over a one-year period, I examine the nature of local and national issue coverage. I find that local issues are covered slightly more than national issues in reporting on House members. Further, members’ strategic use of press releases and the presence of newspapers’ Washington bureaus help explain whether a story will cover a local or national political issue.

Modeling Time-Series Count Data: The Unique Challenges Facing Political Communication Studies

This paper demonstrates the importance of proper model specification when analyzing time-series count data in political communication studies. It is common for scholars of media and politics to investigate counts of coverage of an issue as it evolves over time. Many scholars rightly consider the issues of time dependence and dynamic causality to be the most important when crafting a model. However, to ignore the count features of the outcome variable overlooks an important feature of the data. This is particularly the case when modeling data with a low number of counts. In this paper, we argue that the Poisson autoregressive model (Brandt and Williams, 2001) accurately meets the needs of many media studies. We replicate the analyses of Flemming et al. (1997), Peake and Eshbaugh-Soha (2008), and Ura (2009) and demonstrate that models missing some of the assumptions of the Poisson autoregressive model often yield invalid inferences. We also demonstrate that the effect of any of these models can be illustrated dynamically with estimates of uncertainty through a simulation procedure. The paper concludes with implications of these findings for the practical researcher.

National News Attention to the 106th Senate

Scholars have established that the national news media focus their attention on important actors in Congress such as party leaders, committee chairs and influential senators. However, researchers have yet to consider whether the median voter and filibuster pivot – salient actors in the legislative process – receive differential coverage by the news media. Examining the 106th Senate, I demonstrate that having a positive probability of being the median voter in the chamber affects the attention garnered from the national press. However, there is no significant difference observed for filibuster pivots.

How local media coverage of voter fraud influences partisan perceptions in the United States

Extant findings show that voter fraud is extremely rare and difficult to prove in the United States. Voter’s knowledge about voter fraud allegations likely comes through the media, who tend to sensationalize the issue. In this study, we argue that the more voters are exposed to media coverage of voter fraud allegations, the more likely that they will perceive that voter fraud is a frequent problem. We merge the 2012 Survey of Performance of American Elections with state-level media coverage of voter fraud leading up to the 2012 election. Our results show that media coverage of voter fraud is associated with public beliefs about voter fraud. In states where fraud was more frequently featured in local media outlets, public concerns about voter fraud were heightened. In particular, we find that press attention to voter fraud has a larger influence on Republicans than Democrats and Independents. We further find that media coverage of voter fraud does not further polarize partisan perceptions of voter fraud. Rather, political interest moderates state media coverage on voter fraud beliefs only among Republicans. Last, our results provide no support that demographic changes, approval of election administration, or information concerning actual reported voting irregularities have any discernable effects on partisan perceptions.

Patterns in the politics of drugs and tobacco: The Supreme Court and issue attention by policymakers and the press

Past research has demonstrated lasting effects of important Supreme Court decisions on issue attention in the national media. In this light, the Court has served as an important agenda setter. We significantly expand on these findings by arguing that these salient Court decisions can raise the perceived importance of political issues and induce heightened, short-term policy attention in the broader political system. Using measures of media attention, congressional policy actions, and presidential policy actions, we utilize dynamic vector autoregressive modelling to examine the Court’s impact on issue attention in the macro policy system regarding tobacco and drug policy. Overall, this study suggests that the Supreme Court’s most important decisions might significantly affect broader issue attention in the American political system.