Brian Kaney

National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ) System: Description, Results, and Future Plans

The National Mosaic and Multi-sensor QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation), or “NMQ”, system was initially developed from a joint initiative between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations National Severe Storms Laboratory, the Federal Aviation Administrations Aviation Weather Research Program, and the Salt River Project. Further development has continued with additional support from the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development, the NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, and the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The objectives of NMQ research and development (R&D) are 1) to develop a hydrometeorological platform for assimilating different observational networks toward creating high spatial and temporal resolution multisensor QPEs for f lood warnings and water resource management and 2) to develop a seamless high-resolution national 3D grid of radar reflectivity for severe weather detection, data assimilation, numerical weather prediction model verif...

Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Quantitative Precipitation Estimation: Initial Operating Capabilities

AbstractRapid advancements of computer technologies in recent years made the real-time transferring and integration of high-volume, multisource data at a centralized location a possibility. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system recently implemented at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction demonstrates such capabilities by integrating about 180 operational weather radars from the conterminous United States and Canada into a seamless national 3D radar mosaic with very high spatial (1 km) and temporal (2 min) resolution. The radar data can be integrated with high-resolution numerical weather prediction model data, satellite data, and lightning and rain gauge observations to generate a suite of severe weather and quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products. This paper provides an overview of the initial operating capabilities of MRMS QPE products.

A Real-Time Algorithm for Merging Radar QPEs with Rain Gauge Observations and Orographic Precipitation Climatology

AbstractHigh-resolution, accurate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is critical for monitoring and prediction of flash floods and is one of the most important drivers for hydrological forecasts. Rain gauges provide a direct measure of precipitation at a point, which is generally more accurate than remotely sensed observations from radar and satellite. However, high-quality, accurate precipitation gauges are expensive to maintain, and their distributions are too sparse to capture gradients of convective precipitation that may produce flash floods. Weather radars provide precipitation observations with significantly higher resolutions than rain gauge networks, although the radar reflectivity is an indirect measure of precipitation and radar-derived QPEs are subject to errors in reflectivity–rain rate (Z–R) relationships. Further, radar observations are prone to blockages in complex terrain, which often result in a poor sampling of orographically enhanced precipitation. The current study aims at a ...

Understanding Winter Precipitation Impacts on Automated Gauge Observations within a Real-Time System

AbstractPrecipitation gauge observations are routinely classified as ground truth and are utilized in the verification and calibration of radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). This study quantifies the challenges of utilizing automated hourly gauge networks to measure winter precipitation within the real-time Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system from 1 October 2013 to 1 April 2014. Gauge observations were compared against gridded radar-derived QPE over the entire MRMS domain. Gauges that reported no precipitation were classified as potentially stuck in the MRMS system if collocated hourly QPE values indicated nonzero precipitation. The average number of potentially stuck gauge observations per hour doubled in environments defined by below-freezing surface wet-bulb temperatures, while the average number of observations when both the gauge and QPE reported precipitation decreased by 77%. Periods of significant winter precipitation impacts resulted in over a thousand stuck gauge observ...

MRMS QPE Performance during the 2013/14 Cool Season

AbstractA recently implemented operational quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) product, the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar-only QPE (Q3RAD), mosaicked dual-polarization QPE, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) stage II QPE were evaluated for nine cool season precipitation events east of the Rockies. These automated, radar-only products were compared with the forecaster quality-controlled NCEP stage IV product, which was considered as the benchmark for QPE. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) 24-h accumulation data were used to evaluate product performance while hourly automated gauge data (quality controlled) were used for spatial and time series analysis. Statistical analysis indicated all three radar-only products had a distinct underestimate bias, likely due to the radar beam partially or completely overshooting the predominantly shallow winter precipitation systems. While the forecaster quality-controlled NCEP stage IV estimates had the be...

Operational C-Band Dual-Polarization Radar QPE for the Subtropical Complex Terrain of Taiwan

Complex terrain poses significant challenges to the radar based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) because of blockages to the lower tilts of radar observations. The blockages often force the use of higher tilts data to estimate precipitation at the ground and result in errors due to vertical variations of the radar variables. To obtain accurate radar QPEs in the subtropical complex terrain of Taiwan, a vertically corrected composite algorithm (VCCA) was developed for two C-band polarimetric radars. The new algorithm corrects higher tilt radar variables with the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) or vertical profile of specific differential phase (VPSDP) and estimates rainfall rate at the ground through an automated combination of R-Z and relations. The VCCA was assessed with three precipitation cases of different regimes including typhoon, mei-yu, and summer stratiform precipitation events. The results showed that a combination of R-Z and relations provided more accurate QPEs than each alone because R-Z provides better rainfall estimates for light rains and relation is more suitable for heavy rains. The vertical profile corrections for reflectivity and specific differential phase significantly reduced radar QPE errors caused by inadequate sampling of the orographic enhancement of precipitation near the ground.

Improving WSR-88D Radar QPE for Orographic Precipitation Using Profiler Observations

AbstractQuantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) in the West Coast region of the United States has been a big challenge for Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) because of severe blockages caused by the complex terrain. The majority of the heavy precipitation in the West Coast region is associated with strong moisture flux from the Pacific that interacts with the coastal mountains. Such orographic enhancement of precipitation occurs at low levels and cannot be observed well by WSR-88D because of severe blockages. Specifically, the radar beam either samples too high above the ground or misses the orographic enhancement at lower levels, or the beam broadens with range and cannot adequately resolve vertical variations of the reflectivity structure. The current study developed an algorithm that uses S-band Precipitation Profiler (S-PROF) radar observations in northern California to improve WSR-88D QPEs in the area. The profiler data are used to calculate two sets of reference vertical profiles...

High-Resolution QPE System for Taiwan

Over the last five years the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan and the United States NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory have been involved in a research and development initiative to improve the monitoring and prediction of flash floods, debris flows, and severe storms for the Taiwan environment. The initiative has produced a system that integrates observations from weather radars, rain gauges, satellites, and numerical weather prediction model fields to produce high resolution (1 km to 500 m) and rapid update (10-min) rainfall and severe storm monitoring products. These prototype products are assessed for potential use by government agencies and emergency managers for flood, flash flood, and mudslide warnings and water resource managements. The system also facilitates collaborations with academic communities for research and development of radar applications including QPE and nowcasting. This paper overviews the system structure and products, the research activities supporting the system, and the challenges faced in producing high resolution, accurate QPE for Taiwan.

MRMS QPE Performance East of the Rockies during the 2014 Warm Season

AbstractMulti-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) radar only (Q3RAD), Q3RAD local gauge corrected (Q3gc), dual polarization (Dual Pol), legacy Precipitation Processing System (PPS), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) stage IV product performance were evaluated for data collected east of the Rockies during the 2014 warm season. For over 22 000 radar QPE–gauge data pairs, Q3RAD had a higher correlation coefficient (0.85) and a lower mean absolute error (9.4 mm) than the Dual Pol (0.83 and 10.5 mm, respectively) and PPS (0.79 and 10.8 mm, respectively). Q3RAD performed best when the radar beam sampled precipitation within or above the melting layer because of its use of a reflectivity mosaic corrected for brightband contamination. Both NCEP stage IV and Q3gc showed improvement over the radar-only QPEs; while stage IV exhibited the lower errors, the performance of Q3gc was remarkable considering the estimates were automatically generated in near–real tim...