Brian Kent

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception-risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. The factors considered are direct experience, knowledge of wildfire risk, locus of responsibility, fulltime/seasonal status, and self-efficacy. Survey data from three homeowner associations in the western U.S. are used to estimate the direct and indirect effects of this relationship. Our results indicate that the effects of knowledge and locus of responsibility are mediated by homeowners risk perceptions. We also find that beliefs of self-efficacy and fulltime/seasonal status have a direct influence on risk reduction behaviors. Finally, we find, surprisingly, that direct experience with wildfire does not directly influence the risk perception-risk mitigation process.

An application of social choice theory to U.S.D.A. forest service decision making

Abstract To meet the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, the U.S.D.A. Forest Service has changed the way forest plans are developed. The focus of this paper is to address the group-decision problem using social choice theory, specifically the voting models of Condorcet and Borda. The elements of a social choice problem are voters, alternatives, preferences, and aggregation. A case study from the Shoshone National Forest is used to demonstrate the use of the voting models from social choice theory. The solutions derived from the analysis are strategy and coalitional strategy proof implying that behaviors intended to influence the outcome, such as vote trading, would be unsuccessful.

Models for conflict resolution in ecosystem management.

Abstract Tools developed in the fields of decision analysis and game theory that have potential for use in public sector conflict resolution are reviewed. The strengths and weaknesses, as well as the axioms defining principles of fairness, are examined for multiobjective optimization, Nash and Nash–Harsanyi solutions, voting models, and the Shapley value. The case of conflict between stakeholders over proposed oil and gas leasing on National Forest System lands is presented as a sample application. We conclude that the Shapley value is the appropriate approach for determining the “fairness” of alternative conflict solutions, at least in those situations where cardinal utilities can be estimated.

An analysis of joint costs in a managed forest ecosystem

Abstract This paper analyzes the tenability of line item budgeting and independently determined output costs for a managed forest ecosystem. The general problem of cost allocation in a joint production system is discussed as one of choosing paths of integration. A production structure is hypothesized for describing a managed forest ecosystem and its characteristics of “jointness” are discussed. Finally, an empirical case example is presented which indicates that cost estimates and associated means of production which result from single output costing procedures and from joint costing procedures may be significantly different in a managed forest ecosystem.