Brian Lovins

The Role of Offender Risk Assessment: A Policy Maker Guide

Abstract One of the foundations of developing effective correctional practices is the adoption of a validated risk assessment instrument. Risk assessments offer correctional agencies a clear understanding of the level of risk an offender poses to the community, as well as appropriate targets for change. Agencies that adopt a valid risk assessment recognize that the resources it takes to conduct a risk assessment are offset by the time savings it provides in the long run. The recent advancement from second and third generation tools to fourth generation tools provides even more utility for correctional agencies. Fourth generation tools offer an integrated case plan system that is driven directly from the results of the assessment and assists correctional staff in targeting those criminogenic needs that are identified as moderate risk to high risk. Although adopting a validated risk assessment is only one step in conducting evidence based interventions, it is a necessary step to ensure that agencies are targeting the right offender and are addressing the right targets.

Applying the Risk Principle to Sex Offenders Can Treatment Make Some Sex Offenders Worse

The risk principle states that higher risk offenders should receive more intensive services, whereas lower risk offenders should receive less intensive services. However, the criminal justice system routinely ignores the risk principle for sex offenders and treats them all the same with little regard for level of risk. This article explores the effects of different levels of treatment intensity on 238 sexual offenders who are on parole. The findings suggest that the risk principle does, in fact, apply to sexual offenders.

Validating the Level of Service Inventory—Revised and the Level of Service Inventory: Screening Version With a Sample of Probationers

Level of risk is proving to be an important characteristic in effectively serving offender populations. A major limitation to the use of risk assessments is agency resources. There are several screening instruments available that could significantly decrease the amount of resources that are needed to assess for risk. This article assesses the effectiveness of the Level of Service Inventory: Screening Version on 483 probationers in a western state resulting in a 2% false-positive rate. Policy implications are explored and suggestions for future research offered.

The Importance of Reassessment: How Changes in the LSI-R Risk Score Can Improve the Prediction of Recidivism

The Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) is a correctional assessment tool that identifies the individual risk and needs of criminal offenders. The predictive validity of the LSI-R has the support of numerous studies, large samples, and multiple meta-analyses. The dynamic nature of many of the items in the LSI-R suggests that offenders are capable of altering their likelihood for future reoffending. However, despite the hundreds of studies conducted on the LSI-R, there have been only two to investigate whether or not changes in LSI-R score were empirically related to recidivism (Raynor, 2007; Vose, Lowenkamp, Smith, & Cullen, 2009). The current study attempts to add to this literature by assessing the predictive and dynamic validity of the LSI-R. Furthermore, this study is the first to investigate the relationship between changes in LSI-R domain scores and recidivism. The results support the LSI-R as a valid instrument in predicting recidivism and suggest future research on risk/needs assessments should include examinations of the percentage change in risk scores.

Beyond Boston Applying Theory to Understand and Address Sustainability Issues in Focused Deterrence Initiatives for Violence Reduction

Focused deterrence initiatives, including the most famous, Boston’s Operation Ceasefire, have been associated with significant reductions in violence in several U.S. cities. Despite early successes, some cities have experienced long-term sustainability issues. Recent work in Cincinnati, Ohio, has focused on institutionalizing focused deterrence in an attempt to achieve sustainability. Despite these efforts, it became apparent that institutionalization was necessary, but insufficient, to achieve long-term success. This study turns to criminological theory to understand why focused deterrence works and how the model can be improved to maximize crime prevention potential. In doing so, the authors draw from the principles of effective intervention from correctional rehabilitation research and describe how these elements have been integrated into the Cincinnati Initiative to Reduce Violence.

Creation and Validation of the Ohio Youth Assessment System (OYAS) and Strategies for Successful Implementation

As Ohio began to address the gaps in delivering effective juvenile justice programming in the state, it recognized that a statewide risk assessment system was needed. The Department of Youth Services (DYS) explored its options and determined that the best course of action was to develop a risk assessment prospectively to address the needs of youth across multiple stages of the juvenile justice system. DYS partnered with the University of Cincinnati Center for Criminal Justice Research (CCJR) to develop the Ohio Youth Assessment System (OYAS). The OYAS contains five tools: a diversion tool, a detention tool, a disposition tool, a residential tool, and a reentry tool. Each tool is used at the appropriate stage to assess the criminogenic needs of the youth at that stage and to help guide decisions for appropriate interventions. Results from receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis ranged from area under the curve (AUC) values of .611 on the diversion tool to .721 on the reentry tool, suggesting that the tools did reasonably well in placing a youth into appropriate risk categories compared to randomly selected cases. This article reviews the steps taken to develop, implement, and adopt a statewide risk assessment with fidelity.

Validating the Ohio Risk Assessment System Community Supervision Tool with a Diverse Sample from Texas

ABSTRACT The use of risk assessment to assist in determine the criminogenic needs of an offender has become accepted practice in the field of corrections. While many agencies continue to use off-the-shelf assessments and forgo local validation and norming of the instrument, a body of literature has begun to emerge suggesting that fourth generation tools, while robust in nature, are susceptible to threats to validity when applied to new populations. The results from this study support this growing body of literature and suggest that it is important to validate and norm and instrument on the local population. Specifically, this study examined the Ohio Risk Assessment System-Community Supervision Tool and the applicability to a Texas population. While the Ohio version of the ORAS was still predictive of reoffending for the Texas population, adjustments made to the instrument for Texas specific legal factors as well as addressing sociopolitical differences in the two states provided for a significantly stronger instrument. Moreover, this study found that the revalidation of the ORAS provided a valid measure of risk based on gender, race, and ethnicity differences in the two populations. In light of these findings, the article provides several suggestions to influence both practice and policy moving forward regarding the adoption of risk assessment instruments.