Brian M. Chase

Catastrophic Drought in the Afro-Asian Monsoon Region During Heinrich Event 1

An extreme megadrought occurred in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during an iceberg melting episode 50,000 years ago. Between 15,000 and 18,000 years ago, large amounts of ice and meltwater entered the North Atlantic during Heinrich stadial 1. This caused substantial regional cooling, but major climatic impacts also occurred in the tropics. Here, we demonstrate that the height of this stadial, about 16,000 to 17,000 years ago (Heinrich event 1), coincided with one of the most extreme and widespread megadroughts of the past 50,000 years or more in the Afro-Asian monsoon region, with potentially serious consequences for Paleolithic cultures. Late Quaternary tropical drying commonly is attributed to southward drift of the intertropical convergence zone, but the broad geographic range of the Heinrich event 1 megadrought suggests that severe, systemic weakening of Afro-Asian rainfall systems also occurred, probably in response to sea surface cooling.

A record of rapid Holocene climate change preserved in hyrax middens from southwestern Africa

The discovery of sensitive paleoenvironmental proxies contained within fossilized rock hyrax middens from the margin of the central Namib Desert, Africa, is providing unprecedented insight into the region’s environmental history. High-resolution stable carbon and nitrogen isotope records spanning 0–11,700 cal (calibrated) yr B.P. indicate phases of relatively humid conditions from 8700–7500, 6900–6700, 5600–4900, and 4200–3500 cal yr B.P., with a period of marked aridity occurring from 3500 until ca. 300 cal yr B.P. Transitions between these phases appear to have occurred very rapidly, often within <200 years. Of particular importance are: (1) the observed relationship between regional aridifi cation and the decline in Northern Hemisphere insolation across the Holocene, and (2) the signifi cance of suborbital scale variations in climate that covary strongly with fl uctuations in solar forcing. Together, these elements call for a fundamental reexamination of the role of orbital forcing on tropical African systems, and a reconsideration of what factors drive climate change in the region. The quality and resolution of these data far surpass any other evidence available from the region, and the continued development of this unique archive promises to revolutionize paleoenvironmental studies in southern Africa.

Coalescence and fragmentation in the late Pleistocene archaeology of southernmost Africa.

The later Pleistocene archaeological record of southernmost Africa encompasses several Middle Stone Age industries and the transition to the Later Stone Age. Through this period various signs of complex human behaviour appear episodically, including elaborate lithic technologies, osseous technologies, ornaments, motifs and abstract designs. Here we explore the regional archaeological record using different components of lithic technological systems to track the transmission of cultural information and the extent of population interaction within and between different climatic regions. The data suggest a complex set of coalescent and fragmented relationships between populations in different climate regions through the late Pleistocene, with maximum interaction (coalescence) during MIS 4 and MIS 2, and fragmentation during MIS 5 and MIS 3. Coalescent phases correlate with increases in the frequency of ornaments and other forms of symbolic expression, leading us to suggest that population interaction was a significant driver in their appearance.

Late glacial interhemispheric climate dynamics revealed in South African hyrax middens

Our ability to identify the timing and extent of past major climate fluctuations is central to understanding changes in the global climate system. Of the events that have occurred in recent geological time, the Younger Dryas (YD, 13–11.5 ka), an abrupt return to near-glacial conditions during the last glacial–interglacial transition (ca. 18–11.5 ka), is one of the most widely reported. While this event is apparent throughout the Northern Hemisphere ([Peteet, 1995][1]), evidence for its occurrence in the Southern Hemisphere remains equivocal due to a lack of well-dated terrestrial records. Here we report high-resolution stable carbon and nitrogen isotope records obtained from a rock hyrax midden, revealing the first unequivocal terrestrial manifestation of the YD from the southern African subtropics. These results provide key evidence for the relative influence of the YD, and suggest that a subtropical-temperate transition zone existed along the oceanic Subtropical Front (∼41°S) across the Southern Hemisphere, with the Northern Hemisphere exerting a strong influence on all but the higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere after the Heinrich Stadial 1 (15 ka). [1]: #ref-22

Temperature variability over Africa during the last 2000 years

A growing number of proxy, historical and instrumental data sets are now available from continental Africa through which past variations in temperature can be assessed. This paper, co-authored by members of the PAGES Africa2k Working Group, synthesises published material to produce a record of temperature variability for Africa as a whole spanning the last 2000 years. The paper focuses on temperature variability during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA), ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) and late 19th–early 21st centuries. Warmer conditions during the MCA are evident in records from Lake Tanganyika in central Africa, the Ethiopian Highlands in northeastern Africa, and Cango Cave, the Kuiseb River and Wonderkrater in southern Africa. Other records covering the MCA give ambiguous signals. Warming appears to have been greater during the early MCA (c. ad 1000) in parts of southern Africa and during the later MCA (from ad 1100) in Namibia, Ethiopia and at Lake Tanganyika. LIA cooling is evident in Ethiopian and southern African pollen records and in organic biomarker data from Lake Malawi in southeastern tropical Africa, while at Lake Tanganyika the temperature depression appears to have been less consistent. A warming trend in mean annual temperatures is clearly evident from historical and instrumental data covering the late 19th to early 21st centuries. General warming has occurred over Africa since the 1880s punctuated only by a period of cooling in the mid 20th century. The rate of temperature increase appears to have accelerated towards the end of the 20th century. The few long high-resolution proxy records that extend into the late 20th century indicate that average annual temperatures were 1–2°C higher in the last few decades than during the MCA.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

Continental-Scale Temperature Variability during the Past Two Millennia: Supplementary Information

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

Mid to late quaternary landscape and environmental dynamics in the Middle Stone Age of southern South Africa

The southern Cape of South Africa hosts a remarkably rich Middle Stone Age (MSA) archaeological record. Many of the associated caves and rock shelters are coastal sites, which contain evidence for varied occupational intensity and marine resource use, along with signs of notable landscape, environmental, and ecological change. Here, we review and synthesize evidence for Quaternary landscape and climatic change of relevance to the southern Cape MSA. We seek to highlight the available data of most relevance to the analysis and interpretation of the region’s archaeological record, as well as critical data that are lacking. The southern Cape MSA occupation spans the full range of glacial-interglacial conditions (i.e., 170–55 ka). It witnessed marked changes in coastal landscape dynamics, which although driven largely by global eustatic sea level changes, were modulated by local-scale, often inherited, geological constraints. These prevent simple extrapolations and generalizations concerning paleolandscape change. Such changes, including pulses of coastal dune activity, will have directly influenced resource availability around the region’s archaeological sites. Evidence for paleoclimatic change is apparent, but it is scarce and difficult to interpret. It is likely, however that due to the same diversity of rainfall sources influencing the region today, compared to parts of the continental interior, the southern Cape climate was relatively equable throughout the last 150 kyr. The region’s paleoecology, particularly in relation to the coastal plains exposed during sea level lowstands, is a key element missing in attempts to synthesize and model the resources available to occupants of this region. Technology, settlement, and subsistence probably changed in response to these paleoclimate/landscape adjustments, but improvements in baseline archaeological and paleoenvironmental data are required to strengthen models of ecosystem variation and human behavioral response through the MSA.

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Future predictions from paleoecology Terrestrial ecosystems will be transformed by current anthropogenic change, but the extent of this change remains a challenge to predict. Nolan et al. looked at documented vegetational and climatic changes at almost 600 sites worldwide since the last glacial maximum 21,000 years ago. From this, they determined vegetation responses to temperature changes of 4° to 7°C. They went on to estimate the extent of ecosystem changes under current similar (albeit more rapid) scenarios of warming. Without substantial mitigation efforts, terrestrial ecosystems are at risk of major transformation in composition and structure. Science, this issue p. 920 Global vegetation change since the Last Glacial Maximum is used as an indicator of transformation under warming scenarios. Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Climatic controls on Later Stone Age human adaptation in Africa’s southern Cape

Africas southern Cape is a key region for the evolution of our species, with early symbolic systems, marine faunal exploitation, and episodic production of microlithic stone tools taken as evidence for the appearance of distinctively complex human behavior. However, the temporally discontinuous nature of this evidence precludes ready assumptions of intrinsic adaptive benefit, and has encouraged diverse explanations for the occurrence of these behaviors, in terms of regional demographic, social and ecological conditions. Here, we present a new high-resolution multi-proxy record of environmental change that indicates that faunal exploitation patterns and lithic technologies track climatic variation across the last 22,300 years in the southern Cape. Conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum and deglaciation were humid, and zooarchaeological data indicate high foraging returns. By contrast, the Holocene is characterized by much drier conditions and a degraded resource base. Critically, we demonstrate that systems for technological delivery - or provisioning - were responsive to changing humidity and environmental productivity. However, in contrast to prevailing models, bladelet-rich microlithic technologies were deployed under conditions of high foraging returns and abandoned in response to increased aridity and less productive subsistence environments. This suggests that posited links between microlithic technologies and subsistence risk are not universal, and the behavioral sophistication of human populations is reflected in their adaptive flexibility rather than in the use of specific technological systems.