Brian Menounos

Glacier Water Resources on the Eastern Slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Maps of glacier area in western Canada have recently been generated for 1985 and 2005 (Bolch et al., 2010), providing the first complete inventory of glacier cover in Alberta and British Columbia. Western Canada lost about 11% of its glacier area over this period, with area loss exceeding 20% on the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies. Glacier area is difficult to relate to glacier volume, which is the attribute of relevance to water resources and global sea level rise. We apply several possible volume-area scaling relations and glacier slope-thickness relations to estimate the volume of glacier ice in the headwater regions of rivers that spring from the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, arriving at an estimate of 55 ± 15 km3. We cannot preclude higher values, because the available data indicate that large valley glaciers in the Rocky Mountains may be anomalously thick relative to what is typical in the global database that forms the basis for empirical volume-area scaling relations. Incorporating multivariate statistical analysis using observed mass balance data from Peyto Glacier, Alberta and synoptic meteorological conditions in the Canadian Rockies (1966–2007), we model future glacier mass balance scenarios on the eastern slopes of the Rockies. We simulate future volume changes for the glaciers of the Rockies by using these mass balance scenarios in conjunction with a regional ice dynamics model. These projections indicate that glaciers on the eastern slopes will lose 80–90% of their volume by 2100. Glacier contributions to streamflow in Alberta decline from 1.1 km3 a−1 in the early 2000s to 0.1 km3 a−1 by the end of this century.

Ice Volume and Subglacial Topography for Western Canadian Glaciers from Mass Balance Fields, Thinning Rates, and a Bed Stress Model

AbstractA method is described to estimate the thickness of glacier ice using information derived from the measured ice extent, surface topography, surface mass balance, and rate of thinning or thickening of the ice column. Shear stress beneath an ice column is assumed to be simply related to ice thickness and surface slope, as for an inclined slab, but this calculation is cast as a linear optimization problem so that a smoothness regularization can be applied. Assignment of bed stress is based on the flow law for ice and a mass balance calculation but must be preceded by delineation of the ice flow drainage basin. Validation of the method is accomplished by comparing thickness estimates to the known thickness generated by a numerical ice dynamics model. Once validated, the method is used to estimate the subglacial topography for all glaciers in western Canada that lie south of 60°N. Adding the present ice volume of each glacier gives the estimated total volume as 2320 km3, equivalent to 5.8 mm of sea leve...

An inventory and morphometric analysis of British Columbia glaciers, Canada

We describe an automated method to generate an inventory of glaciers and glacier morphometry from a digital topographic database containing glacier boundaries and a digital elevation model for British Columbia, Canada. The inventory contains over 12 000 glaciers with a total cumulative area that exceeds 25 000 km 2 , based on mapping from aerial photographs circa the mid-1980s. We use the inventory to examine dimensional characteristics among glaciers, namely the scaling relations between glacier length, width and area. Glacier length is a good predictor of glacier area, and its predictive ability improves when glaciers are stratified by the number of up-valley accumulation basins. The spatial pattern of glacier mid-range altitude parallels glaciation limits previously mapped for British Columbia and similarly reflects large-scale controls of orographic precipitation and continentality. The inventory is also used to refine models that relate glacier mid-range and terminus altitudes to regional position, aspect and, in the case of terminus altitudes, an index of glacier shape. Relations between glacier altitude limits and controlling spatial and topographic factors are used to make further climatic and mass-balance inferences from the glacier inventory.

Advances in Holocene mountain geomorphology inspired by sediment budget methodology

The sediment budget, which links sediment sources to sediment sinks with hydroclimatic and weathering processes mediating the response, is applied to the analysis of sediments in three alpine lakes in British Columbia. We provide two ways of using the sediment budget as an integrating device in the interpretation of mountain geomorphology. These approaches differ in their resolution and ability to budget the major components of the fine-sediment cascade in glaciated environments. Taken together, they provide an integrated index of landscape change over the Holocene. The first example compares the hydroclimatic controls of lake sedimentation for the last 600 years (A.D. 1370–1998) preserved in varved sediments from two of the lake basins. This hydroclimatological approach incorporates contemporary monitoring, air photo analysis, and detailed stratigraphy of sedimentation events within a single varve to infer the timing, sources, and preferred pathways of fine-grained sediments reaching the lake basins. The results indicate that glaciers, hillslope, and channel instability within the major subbasins are the principal sediment sources to the lake basins. Transitory sediment storage of glacially derived sediments within the channels is believed to modulate the episodic and more frequent delivery of sediments from adjacent hillslope and fluvial storage sites and direct routing of glacial rock flour during years of prolonged glacial melt. The second example, relying on the phosphorus geochemistry of sediments in an alpine lake basin, considers the evolution of phosphorus forms (from mineral to occluded and organic fractions) as a function of the soil development, inherent slope instability, and repeated cycles of glaciation and neoglaciation over the Holocene. This geochemical approach demonstrates that both neoglaciation and full glaciation have essentially zeroed the system in such a way that a high proportion of mineral phosphorus remains in the present lake sediments and the bioavailability of phosphorus (a key to ecosystem development) is low. Both examples illustrate the importance of variable sediment sources; the seasonality, frequency, and magnitude of sediment transfers; and the profound influence of ice cover over contemporary, neoglacial and Pleistocene time scales. They also signal the value of including both clastic and dissolved components in the sediment budget. D 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental reconstruction from a varve network in the southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia, Canada

Cores of annually laminated sediments (varves) from five lakes in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada, document clastic sediment response to climate and geomorphic change over the past 120 years. Interannual varve thickness correlates with annual flood magnitude. Interdecadal trends in varve thickness are influenced by other environmental factors such as glacier recession. Despite major differences in the lakes and their contributing watersheds, substantial concordance is observed among the records. A pronounced change in the nature of lake sedimentation, accompanied by higher interannual variability, occurred in 1980. The change coincides with an increase in the magnitude of autumn flooding and major re-organization of the North Pacific climate system. These results highlight new directions for palaeoenvironmental research using varved sediment records, specifically to study the magnitude and spatial extent of past hydro-climatic events.

Future changes in autumn atmospheric river events in British Columbia, Canada, as projected by CMIP5 global climate models

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) often trigger extreme precipitation events in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Here we analyze how well the autumn AR events with the highest probability for extreme precipitation over BC, henceforth called AR-extreme events, are simulated in five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) and how these AR-extreme events are projected to change by the end of the century. We examine the daily synoptic patterns of integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over the Pacific Ocean that favor the formation of AR-extreme events. Our analysis and comparison with AR-extreme events in four reanalysis products for the period 1979–2010 reveal that the GCMs more successfully resolve their seasonality and interannual variability than their frequencies and amount of precipitation brought to BC. For the CMIP5 scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5, the frequency of AR-extreme events will increase for the period 2070–2100 with the largest increase in December. All models project an increase in total precipitation over BC, due to the increase in frequency and intensity of the AR-extreme events; however, the dominant factor is the increase in frequency, especially of those events with precipitation exceeding 20 mmd−1. The path of the ARs during the AR-extreme events is projected to move northward, bringing stronger IVT and more precipitation to the north coast of BC, while the south coast may become drier than at the present day. The shift in the ARs is driven by the northward shift in the Aleutian Low pressure system, especially in RCP8.5.

Cordilleran Ice Sheet mass loss preceded climate reversals near the Pleistocene Termination

Disappearance of an ice sheet The Cordilleran Ice Sheet is thought to have covered westernmost Canada until about 13,000 years ago, even though the warming and sea level rise of the last deglaciation had begun more than a thousand years earlier. This out-of-phase behavior has puzzled glaciologists because it is not clear what mechanisms could account for it. Menounos et al. report measurements of the ages of cirque and valley glaciers that show that much of western Canada was ice-free as early as 14,000 years ago—a finding that better agrees with the record of global ice volume (see the Perspective by Marcott and Shakun). Previous reconstructions seem not to have adequately reflected the complexity of ice sheet decay. Science, this issue p. 781; see also p. 721 The last deglaciation of western Canada began earlier than previously thought. The Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) once covered an area comparable to that of Greenland. Previous geologic evidence and numerical models indicate that the ice sheet covered much of westernmost Canada as late as 12.5 thousand years ago (ka). New data indicate that substantial areas throughout westernmost Canada were ice free prior to 12.5 ka and some as early as 14.0 ka, with implications for climate dynamics and the timing of meltwater discharge to the Pacific and Arctic oceans. Early Bølling-Allerød warmth halved the mass of the CIS in as little as 500 years, causing 2.5 to 3.0 meters of sea-level rise. Dozens of cirque and valley glaciers, along with the southern margin of the CIS, advanced into recently deglaciated regions during the Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas.

Surface Energy Balance Closure and Turbulent Flux Parameterization on a Mid-Latitude Mountain Glacier, Purcell Mountains, Canada

In the majority of glacier surface energy balance studies, parameterisation rather than direct measurement is used to estimate one or more of the individual heat fluxes, with others, such as the rain and ground heat fluxes, often deemed negligible. Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat are commonly parameterised using the bulk aerodynamic technique. This method was developed for horizontal, uniform surfaces rather than sloped, inhomogeneous glacier terrain, and significant uncertainty remains regarding the selection of appropriate roughness length values, and the validity of the atmospheric stability functions employed. A customised weather station, designed to measure all relevant heat fluxes, was installed on an alpine glacier over the 2014 melt season. Eddy covariance techniques were used to observe the turbulent heat fluxes, and to calculate site-specific roughness values. The obtained dataset was used to drive a point ablation model, and to evaluate the most commonly used bulk methods and roughness length schemes in the literature. Modelled ablation showed good agreement with observed rates at seasonal, daily, and sub-daily timescales, effectively closing the surface energy balance, and giving a high level of confidence in the flux observation method. Net radiation was the dominant contributor to melt energy over the season (65.2%), followed by the sensible heat flux (29.7%), while the rain heat flux was observed to be a significant contributor on daily timescales during periods of persistent heavy rain (up to 20% day-1). Momentum roughness lengths observed for the study surface (snow: 10-3.8 m; ice: 10-2.2 m) showed general agreement with previous findings, while the scalar values (temperature: 10-4.6 m; water vapour: 10-6 m) differed significantly from those for momentum, disagreeing with the assumption of equal roughness lengths. Of the three bulk method stability schemes tested, the functions based on the Monin-Obukhov length returned mean daily flux values closest to those observed, but displayed poor performance on sub-daily timescales, and periods of substantial flux overestimation.

Correction to Detection of runoff timing changes in pluvial, nival, and glacial rivers of western Canada

[1] Changes in air temperature, precipitation, and, in some cases, glacial runoff affect the timing of river flow in watersheds of western Canada. We present a method to detect streamflow phase shifts in pluvial, nival, and glacial rivers. The Kendall-Theil robust lines yield monotonic trends in normalized sequent 5-day means of runoff in nine river basins of western Canada over the period 1960–2006. In comparison to trends in the timing of the date of annual peak flow and the center of volume, two other less robust metrics often used to infer streamflow timing changes, our approach reveals more detailed structure on the nature of these changes. For instance, our trend analyses reveal extension of the warm hydrological season in nival and glacial rivers of western Canada. This feature is marked by an earlier onset of the spring melt, decreases in summer streamflow, and a delay in the onset of enhanced autumn flows. Our method provides information on streamflow timing changes throughout the entire hydrological year, enhancing results from previous methods to assess climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle.

Glacier change in the Cariboo Mountains, British Columbia, Canada (1952–2005)

We applied photogrammetric methods with aerial photography from 11 different years between 1946 and 2005 to assess changes in area and volume of 33 glaciers in the Cariboo Mountains of British Columbia for the latter half of the 20th century. These are used to identify changes in extent and elevation primarily for the periods 1952–1985, 1985– 2005, and 1952–2005. All glaciers receded during the period 1952–2005; area retreat averaged −0.19± 0.05 % a. From 1952 to 1985, nine glaciers advanced; following 1985, retreat rates accelerated to −0.41± 0.12 % a. Thinning rates of a subset of seven glaciers likewise accelerated, from −0.14± 0.04 m w.e. a (1952–1985) to −0.50± 0.07 m w.e. a for the period 1985–2005. Temperatures increased from the earlier to the latter period for the ablation (+0.38 C) and accumulation (+0.87 C) seasons, and average precipitation decreased, particularly in the accumulation season (−32 mm, −3.2 %). Our comparison of surface area change with glacier morphometry corroborates previous studies that show primary relations between extent change and surface area. We also find that the strength and sign of these relations varied for different epochs. Our results also indicate that the 1985 glacier extent for the study area reported previously by other studies may be slightly overestimated due to errant mapping of late-lying snow cover.