Brian P. McCall

An event history model of student departure

Abstract This study uses a modeling technique often used in economics and other disciplines but rarely applied to educational research. The technique, known as event history modeling, is used to examine the temporal dimensions of student departure from a large research university. This approach allows researchers to remedy analytic problems often found when standard statistical procedures are used to study longitudinal events such as student departure from college. The study confirms most of the substantive findings of earlier research but we document that key explanatory variables have differential effects over time. Pinpointing the times at which students are at risk of leaving college will permit more efficient intervention strategies which could reduce the social, institutional, and individual costs often associated with leaving college before degree completion.

Occupational Matching: A Test of Sorts

This paper develops a theory of job matching in which matching information has both job-specific and occupation-specific components. If occupational matching is significant, then the theory predicts that for those who have switched jobs but remained in the same occupation, increased tenure in the previous job lowers the likelihood of separation from the current job. These predictions are tested using job tenure data from the National Longitudinal Surveys youth cohort. In general, the data are consistent with the occupational matching hypothesis.

An Integrated Model of Application, Admission, Enrollment, and Financial Aid

We jointly model the application, admission, financial aid determination, and enrollment decision process. We find that expectations of admission affect application probabilities, financial aid expectations affect enrollment and application behavior, and deviations from aid expectations are strongly related to enrollment. We also conduct simulations on important policy variables.

A Sequential Study of Migration and Job Search

This paper designs a multiarmed bandit (MAB) sequential model for the analysis of the migration-job search process. The implications either are compatible with well-known migration behavior or, when novel, are also plausible. For example, regions with large wage variability attract migrants, and regions with large nonpecuniary returns increase both in migration and out migration. A major advantage of this approach is the relative ease with which martingale estimators can be derived from the martingale structure of the model. These martingale methods are exemplified for the return migration phenomenon.

Genetic influences on job satisfaction and work values

Abstract Two replications of the Arvey, Bouchard, Segal and Abraham (1989; Journal of Applied Psychology, 74, 187–192) study were conducted investigating whether there is a significant genetic association with general job satisfaction as well as its facets. A sample of male monozygotic (n = 95) and dizygotic (n = 80) twin pairs reared together completed the Minnesota Satisfaction Questionnaire. As in Arvey et al. (1989), a significant genetic influence was demonstrated for Intrinsic Satisfaction with no support given for genetic influence on Extrinsic Satisfaction. Only modest support was given for a genetic influence on General Satisfaction. A second study using a sample of 1236 monozygotic and 1165 dizygotic twin pairs reared together showed a significant genetic influence on overall job satisfaction to replicate the Arvey et al. (1989) study as well as evidence for the genetic influence on work values to replicate the Keller Bouchard, Arvey, Segal and Dawis (1992) study.

The Impact of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Levels on Recipiency

This paper studies the effect of unemployment insurance benefit levels on recipiency. Increasing benefit levels (as measured by the fraction of weekly earnings of the lost job that they replace) is found to significantly increase the probability of unemployment insurance recipiency among the eligible. There is some evidence, however, that the effect is smaller at high replacement rates. Cost increases resulting from take-up responses are found to be substantial for increases in the states maximum benefit amount and for increases in the weekly benefit amount in low-replacement-rate states.

The Economics of Search

1. Introduction 2. Mathematical Methods 3. The History and Evolution of Sequential Analysis 4. The Basic Sequential Search Model and its Ramifications 5. Estimation Methods for Duration Models 6. Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance and Sequential Job Search 7. Job Search in a Dynamic Economy 8. Expected Utility Maximizing Job Search 9. Multi-armed Bandits and their Economic Applications 10. A Sample of Early Response to Diamonds Paradox and Rothschilds Complaint 11. Equilibrium Search after the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides Breakthrough 12. Structural Estimation Methods 13. The Ubiquity of Search 14. Topics for Further Inquiry

The Determinants of Full-Time versus Part-Time Reemployment Following Job Displacement

This article explores the determinants of full‐time and part‐time reemployment following job displacement in Canada. Among those who lose full‐time jobs, women are found to have both longer median joblessness durations and higher probabilities of part‐time reemployment than men with little of this difference explained by gender differences in worker characteristics. Unemployment insurance receipt is associated with longer median joblesness durations and, among those who find a job within 1 year of displacement, an increased probability of part‐time reemployment for both men and women.

The Effect of Unions on the Receipt of Unemployment Insurance Benefits

Using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data for 1979–91, the authors analyze the effect of union representation on the likelihood that individuals eligible for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits actually received those benefits. They find that unions had no statistically significant effect on the probability of benefit receipt among white-collar workers, but among eligible blue-collar workers, those who were laid off from union jobs were roughly 23% more likely than comparable nonunion workers to receive UI benefits. Although the analysis does not identify the reasons for this difference, two factors it appears to rule out as determinants are union-negotiated supplemental unemployment benefit plans and differences between union and nonunion workers in expected unemployment duration.

Simulating the Effects of Financial Aid Packages on College Student Stopout, Reenrollment Spells, and Graduation Chances

This study investigates the impact that different financial aid packages have on student stopout, reenrollment, and graduation probabilities. The authors simulate how various financial aid packaging regimes affect the occurrence and timing of these events. Their findings indicate that the number and duration of enrollment and stopout spells affect graduation chances. Simulations conducted indicate that the way financial aid is packaged over students’ academic careers can significantly affect their stopout, reenrollment, and subsequent graduation chances.