Brian P. Sack

Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market

Movements in the stock market can have a significant impact on the macroeconomy and are therefore likely to be an important factor in the determination of monetary policy. However, little is known about the magnitude of the Federal Reserves reaction to the stock market. One reason is that it is difficult to estimate the policy reaction because of the simultaneous response of equity prices to interest rate changes. This paper uses an identification technique based on the heteroskedasticity of stock market returns to identify the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market. The results indicate that monetary policy reacts significantly to stock market movements, with a 5% rise (fall) in the S&P 500 index increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point tightening (easing) by about a half. This reaction is roughly of the magnitude that would be expected from estimates of the impact of stock market movements on aggregate demand. Thus, it appears that the Federal Reserve systematically responds to stock price movements only to the extent warranted by their impact on the macroeconomy.

Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment

The success over the years in reducing inflation and, consequently, the average level of nominal interest rates has increased the likelihood that the nominal policy interest rate may become constrained by the zero lower bound. When that happens, a central bank can no longer stimulate aggregate demand by further interest-rate reductions and must rely on non-standard policy alternatives. To assess the potential effectiveness of such policies, we analyze the behavior of selected asset prices over short periods surrounding central bank statements or other types of financial or economic news and estimate no-arbitrage models of the term structure for the United States and Japan. There is some evidence that central bank communications can help to shape public expectations of future policy actions and that asset purchases in large volume by a central bank would be able to affect the price or yield of the targeted asset.

The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models

Current macroeconomic models provide appealing, succinct descriptions of business cycle dynamics in the United States and other countries, but less is known about the extent to which these models accurately replicate the economy’s long-run characteristics. In part, this reflects that economists have far fewer observations about long-run behavior, given the limited sample sizes available. But while less is known about the long-run characteristics of the economy, many macroeconomic models impose very strong assumptions about this behavior— that the long-run levels of inflation and the real interest rate are constant over time and perfectly known by all economic agents. This paper empirically tests those assumptions and proposes alternative ones. Specifically, we focus on the effects of macroeconomic and monetary policy surprises on the term structure of interest rates. In many standard macroeconomic models, short-term interest rates tend to return relatively quickly to a deterministic steady state after a macroeconomic or monetary policy shock, so that these shocks have only transitory effects on the future path of interest rates. As a result, one would expect only a limited response of long-term interest rates to these disturbances. Putting this prediction in terms of forward rates, one would expect virtually no reaction of far-ahead forward rates to such shocks. The behavior of the U.S. yield curve appears, however, to contrast sharply with these predictions. In particular, we demonstrate that longterm forward rates move significantly in response to the unexpected components of many macroeconomic data releases and monetary policy announcements. We interpret these findings as indicating that an assumption made in these models—that the long-run expectations of economic agents are precise and time-invariant—is violated. In particular, our empirical results are all consistent with a model that we present in which private agents’ views of long-run inflation are not strongly anchored.

Large-Scale Asset Purchases by the Federal Reserve: Did They Work?

Since December 2008, the Federal Reserves traditional policy instrument, the target federal funds rate, has been effectively at its lower bound of zero. In order to further ease the stance of monetary policy as the economic outlook deteriorated, the Federal Reserve purchased substantial quantities of assets with medium and long maturities. In this paper, we explain how these purchases were implemented and discuss the mechanisms through which they can affect the economy. We present evidence that the purchases led to economically meaningful and long-lasting reductions in longer-term interest rates on a range of securities, including securities that were not included in the purchase programs. These reductions in interest rates primarily reflect lower risk premiums, including term premiums, rather than lower expectations of future short-term interest rates.

Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence

Abstract The Federal Reserve and other central banks tend to change short-term interest rates in sequences of small steps in the same direction and reverse the direction of interest rate movements only infrequently. These characteristics, often referred to as interest-rate smoothing, have led to criticism that policy responds too little and too late to macroeconomic developments. This paper, however, argues that interest-rate smoothing may in fact be optimal. We present empirical results from several recent papers that offer three explanations of interest-rate smoothing: forward-looking behavior by market participants, measurement error associated with key macroeconomic variables, and uncertainty regarding relevant structural parameters.

Does the Fed Act Gradually? A VAR Analysis

The tendency for changes in the federal funds rate to be implemented gradually has been considered evidence of an interest rate smoothing objective for the Federal Reserve. This paper investigates whether gradual funds rate movements can be explained by the dynamic structure of the economy and the uncertainty that the Fed faces regarding this structure. Using the estimated structural form from a VAR, the analysis first computes the funds rate that is expected in the presence of additive uncertainty. The expected policy can explain persistent directional movements in the funds rate but reacts too aggressively to changes in the non-policy variables. The observed policy instead dampens interest rate changes and moves gradually towards the expected policy. The analysis is then extended to incorporate parameter uncertainty arising from imprecise estimation of the VAR coefficients. Parameter uncertainty biases the funds rate towards the level predicted by the policy rule that the Fed has historically followed. Because the Fed has traditionally smoothed interest rates, the expected policy under parameter uncertainty can account for a considerable portion of the gradual funds rate movements observed.

Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations

A number of recent papers have used different financial market instruments to measure near-term expectations of the federal funds rate and the high-frequency changes in these instruments around FOMC announcements to measure monetary policy shocks. This paper evaluates the empirical success of a variety of financial market instruments in predicting the future path of monetary policy. All of the instruments we consider provide forecasts that are clearly superior to those of standard time series models at all of the horizons considered. Among financial market instruments, we find that federal funds futures dominate all the other securities in forecasting monetary policy at horizons out to six months. For longer horizons, the predictive power of many of the instruments we consider is very similar. In addition, we present evidence that monetary policy shocks computed using the current-month federal funds futures contract are influenced by changes in the timing of policy actions that do not influence the expected course of policy beyond a horizon of about six weeks. We propose an alternative shock measure that captures changes in market expectations of policy over slightly longer horizons.

Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules

Many researchers have found that the lagged interest rate enters estimated monetary policy rules with overwhelming significance. However, a recent paper by Rudebusch (2002) argues that the lagged interest rate is not a fundamental component of the U.S. policy rule, and that its significance arises from the omission of serially correlated variables from the policy rule. This paper demonstrates that, contrary to Rudebuschs claims, these two hypotheses can be directly distinguished in the estimation of the policy rule. Our findings indicate that while serially correlated omitted variables may be present, the lagged interest rate enters the policy rule on its own right and plays an important role in describing the behavior of the federal funds rate.

The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation

For over ten years, the U.S. Treasury has issued index-linked debt. Federal Reserve Board staff have fitted a yield curve to these indexed securities at the daily frequency from the start of 1999 to the present. This paper describes the methodology that is used and makes the estimates public. Comparison with the corresponding nominal yield curve allows measures of inflation compensation (or breakeven inflation rates) to be computed. We discuss the interpretation of inflation compensation and its relationship to inflation expectations and uncertainty, offering some empirical evidence that these measures are affected by an inflation risk premium that varies considerably at high frequency. In addition, we also find evidence that inflation compensation was held down in the early years of the sample by a premium associated with the illiquidity of TIPS at the time. We hope that the TIPS yield curve and inflation compensation data, which are posted here and will be updated periodically, will provide a useful tool to applied economists.

Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets

In recent years, financial markets appear better able to anticipate FOMC policy changes. Beginning in the late 1980s and early 1990s, longer-term interest rates and futures rates have tended to incorporate movements in the federal funds rate several months in advance, in contrast to the largely contemporaneous response typically observed before that time. After identifying these emerging trends, the paper parses the enhanced predictability into a component that can be attributed to the autoregressive behavior of the funds rate and a non-autoregressive component. The paper considers institutional developments in FOMC policy making that may have contributed to each of these components, including gradualism in adjusting the federal funds rate target and transparency regarding the setting of the target and future policy intentions.