Brian R. Hirshman

The Etiology of Social Change

A fundamental aspect of human beings is that they learn. The process of learning and what is learned are impacted by a number of factors, both cognitive and social; that is, humans are boundedly rational. Cognitive and social limitations interact, making it difficult to reason about how to provide information to impact what humans know, believe, and do. Herein, we use a multi-agent dynamic-network simulation system, Construct, to conduct such reasoning. In particular, we ask, What media should be used to provide information to most impact what people know, believe, and do, given diverse social structures? All simulated agents are boundedly rational both at the cognitive and social level, and so are subject to factors such as literacy, education, and the breadth of their social network. We find that there is no one most effective intervention; rather, to be effective, messages and the media used to spread the message need to be selected for the population being addressed. Typically, a multimedia campaign is critical.

A cerebrospinal fluid microRNA signature as biomarker for glioblastoma

Purpose To develop a cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) miRNA diagnostic biomarker for glioblastoma. Experimental Design Glioblastoma tissue and matched CSF from the same patient (obtained prior to tumor manipulation) were profiled by TaqMan OpenArray® Human MicroRNA Panel. CSF miRNA profiles from glioblastoma patients and controls were created from three discovery cohorts and confirmed in two validation cohorts. Results miRNA profiles from clinical CSF correlated with those found in glioblastoma tissues. Comparison of CSF miRNA profiles between glioblastoma patients and non-brain tumor patients yielded a tumor “signature” consisting of nine miRNAs. The “signature” correlated with glioblastoma tumor volume (p=0.008). When prospectively applied to cisternal CSF, the sensitivity and specificity of the ‘signature’ for glioblastoma detection were 67% and 80%, respectively. For lumbar CSF, the sensitivity and specificity of the signature were 28% and 95%, respectively. Comparable results were obtained from analyses of CSF extracellular vesicles (EVs) and crude CSF. Conclusion We report a CSF miRNA signature as a “liquid biopsy” diagnostic platform for glioblastoma.

miRNA array screening reveals cooperative MGMT-regulation between miR-181d-5p and miR-409-3p in glioblastoma

The levels of expression of O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) are relevant in predicting the response to the alkylating chemotherapy in patients affected by glioblastoma. MGMT promoter methylation and the published MGMT regulating microRNAs (miRNAs) do not completely explain the expression pattern of MGMT in clinical glioblastoma specimens. Here we used a genome-wide microarray-based approach to identify MGMT regulating miRNAs. Our screen unveiled three novel MGMT regulating miRNAs, miR-127-3p, miR-409-3p, and miR-124-3p, in addition to the previously identified miR-181d-5p. Transfection of these three novel miRNAs into the T98G glioblastoma cell line suppressed MGMT mRNA and protein expression. However, their MGMT- suppressive effects are 30–50% relative that seen with miR-181d-5p transfection. In silico analyses of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA) revealed that miR-181d-5p is the only miRNA that consistently exhibited inverse correlation with MGMT mRNA expression. However, statistical models incorporating both miR-181d-5p and miR-409-3p expression better predict MGMT expression relative to models involving either miRNA alone. Our results confirmed miR-181d-5p as the key MGMT-regulating miRNA. Other MGMT regulating miRNAs, including the miR-409-3p identified in this report, modify the effect of miR-181d-5p on MGMT expression. MGMT expression is, thus, regulated by cooperative interaction between key MGMT-regulating miRNAs.

Cumulative Intracranial Tumor Volume (CITV) Enhances the Prognostic Value of the Lung-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) Model.

BACKGROUND Management of patients afflicted with brain metastasis requires tailoring of therapeutic strategies based on survival expectations. Therefore, the development of prognostic indices is of critical importance in this patient population. OBJECTIVE To determine whether the cumulative intracranial tumor volume (CITV) of brain metastasis augments the prognostic value of the lung-specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) index. METHODS Patient data were derived from 365 lung cancer patients with brain metastasis who were consecutively treated with stereotactic radiosurgery at the University of California, San Diego/San Diego Gamma Knife Center. CITV was analyzed to determine the volume cutoff that maximized sensitivity and specificity for 1-year survival. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard modeling was performed, and overall survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method risk stratifying with or without this optimal CITV. The prognostic value of these models (lung-specific GPA ± CITV) was quantitatively compared with the use of net reclassification improvement (>0) and integrated discrimination improvement. RESULTS For the University of California, San Diego/San Diego Gamma Knife Center cohort, the CITV cutoff that had the greatest survival discrimination at 1 year was 4 cm. The addition of CITV to the lung-specific GPA indexes significantly improved the prognostic value of lung-specific GPA, with net reclassification improvement >0 of 0.430 (95% confidence interval, 0.228-0.629) and integrated discrimination improvement of 0.029 (95% confidence interval, 0.004-0.073). These findings were validated in an independent cohort of 1638 lung cancer patients with brain metastasis who were treated with stereotactic radiosurgery at the Katsuta Hospital Mito Gamma House in Japan. CONCLUSION In independent cohorts, the addition of CITV to the lung-specific GPA index significantly improved the prognostic value of this index. ABBREVIATIONS AUC, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curveBM, brain metastasisCITV, cumulative intracranial tumor volumeds-GPA, disease-specific Graded Prognostic AssessmentGPA, Graded Prognostic AssessmentIDI, integrated discrimination improvementKHMGH, Katsuta Hospital Mito Gamma HouseKPS, Karnofsky Performance StatusNRI, net reclassification improvementROC, receiver-operating characteristic curveSRS, stereotactic radiosurgeryUCSD/SDGKC, University of California, San Diego/San Diego Gamma Knife Center.

Oligodendroglioma resection: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) analysis

OBJECTIVE The available evidence suggests that the clinical benefits of extended resection are limited for chemosensitive tumors, such as primary CNS lymphoma. Oligodendroglioma is generally believed to be more sensitive to chemotherapy than astrocytoma of comparable grades. In this study the authors compare the survival benefit of gross-total resection (GTR) in patients with oligodendroglioma relative to patients with astrocytoma. METHODS Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program (1999-2010) database, the authors identified 2378 patients with WHO Grade II oligodendroglioma (O2 group) and 1028 patients with WHO Grade III oligodendroglioma (O3 group). Resection was defined as GTR, subtotal resection, biopsy only, or no resection. Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox regression survival analyses were used to assess survival with respect to extent of resection. RESULTS Cox multivariate analysis revealed that the hazard of dying from O2 and O3 was comparable between patients who underwent biopsy only and GTR (O2: hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-1.53; O3: HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.80-1.72). A comprehensive search of the published literature identified 8 articles without compelling evidence that GTR is associated with improved overall survival in patients with oligodendroglioma. CONCLUSIONS This SEER-based analysis and review of the literature suggest that GTR is not associated with improved survival in patients with oligodendroglioma. This finding contrasts with the documented association between GTR and overall survival in anaplastic astrocytoma and glioblastoma. The authors suggest that this difference may reflect the sensitivity of oligodendroglioma to chemotherapy as compared with astrocytomas.

Coma and Stroke Following Surgical Treatment of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysm: An American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Study

OBJECTIVE A large national surgical registry was used to establish national benchmarks and associated predictors of major neurologic complications (i.e., coma and stroke) after surgical clipping of unruptured intracranial aneurysms. METHODS The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data set between 2007 and 2013 was used for this retrospective cohort analysis. Demographic, comorbidity, and operative characteristics associated with the development of a major neurologic complication (i.e., coma or stroke) were elucidated using a backward selection stepwise logistic regression analysis. This model was subsequently used to fit a predictive score for major neurologic complications. RESULTS Inclusion criteria were met by 662 patients. Of these patients, 57 (8.61%) developed a major neurologic complication (i.e., coma or stroke) within the 30-day postoperative period. On multivariable analysis, operative time (log odds 0.004 per minute; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.002-0.007), age (log odds 0.05 per year; 95% CI, 0.02-0.08), history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (log odds 1.26; 95% CI, 0.43-2.08), and diabetes (log odds 1.15; 95% CI, 0.38-1.91) were associated with an increased odds of major neurologic complications. When patients were categorized according to quartile of a predictive score generated from the multivariable analysis, rates of major neurologic complications were 1.8%, 4.3%, 6.7%, and 21.2%. CONCLUSIONS Using a large, national multi-institutional cohort, this study established representative national benchmarks and a predictive scoring system for major neurologic complications following operative management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms. The model may assist with risk stratification and tailoring of decision making in surgical candidates.

Extracellular Vesicles in Molecular Diagnostics: An Overview with a Focus on CNS Diseases.

All known cells continuously release nanoscale lipid membrane-enclosed packets. These packets, termed extracellular vesicles (EVs), bear the signature of their cells of origin. These vesicles can be detected in just about every type of biofluid tested, including blood, urine, and cerebrospinal fluid. The majority comes from normal cells, but disease cells also release them. There is a great interest in collecting and analyzing EVs in biofluids as diagnostics for a wide spectrum of central nervous system diseases. Here, we will review the state of central nervous system EV research in terms of molecular diagnostics and biomarkers.

Superior Prognostic Value of Cumulative Intracranial Tumor Volume Relative to Largest Intracranial Tumor Volume for Stereotactic Radiosurgery-Treated Brain Metastasis Patients

BACKGROUND Two intracranial tumor volume variables have been shown to prognosticate survival of stereotactic-radiosurgery-treated brain metastasis patients: the largest intracranial tumor volume (LITV) and the cumulative intracranial tumor volume (CITV). OBJECTIVE To determine whether the prognostic value of the Scored Index for Radiosurgery (SIR) model can be improved by replacing one of its components-LITV-with CITV. METHODS We compared LITV and CITV in terms of their survival prognostication using a series of multivariable models that included known components of the SIR: age, Karnofsky Performance Score, status of extracranial disease, and the number of brain metastases. Models were compared using established statistical measures, including the net reclassification improvement (NRI > 0) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). The analysis was performed in 2 independent cohorts, each consisting of ∼3000 patients. RESULTS In both cohorts, CITV was shown to be independently predictive of patient survival. Replacement of LITV with CITV in the SIR model improved the models ability to predict 1-yr survival. In the first cohort, the CITV model showed an NRI > 0 improvement of 0.2574 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.1890-0.3257) and IDI of 0.0088 (95% CI 0.0057-0.0119) relative to the LITV model. In the second cohort, the CITV model showed a NRI > 0 of 0.2604 (95% CI 0.1796-0.3411) and IDI of 0.0051 (95% CI 0.0029-0.0073) relative to the LITV model. CONCLUSION After accounting for covariates within the SIR model, CITV offers superior prognostic value relative to LITV for stereotactic radiosurgery-treated brain metastasis patients.

The Association between Psychiatric Comorbidities and Outcomes for Inpatients with Traumatic Brain Injury

It is well established that traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with the development of psychiatric disorders. However, the impact of psychiatric disorders on TBI outcome is less well understood. We examined the outcomes of patients who experienced a traumatic subdural hemorrhage and whether a comorbid psychiatric disorder was associated with a change in outcome. A retrospective observational study was performed in the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD) and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS). Patients hospitalized for acute subdural hemorrhage were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) diagnosis codes. Patients with coexisting psychiatric diagnoses were identified. Outcomes studied included mortality and adverse discharge disposition. In OSPHD, diagnoses of depression (OR = 0.64, p < 0.001), bipolar disorder (OR = 0.45, p < 0.05), and anxiety (OR = 0.37, p < 0.001) were associated with reduced mortality during hospitalization for TBI, with a trend toward psychosis (OR = 0.56, p = 0.08). Schizophrenia had no effect. Diagnoses of psychosis (OR = 2.12, p < 0.001) and schizophrenia (OR = 2.60, p < 0.001) were associated with increased adverse discharge. Depression and bipolar disorder had no effect, and anxiety was associated with reduced adverse discharge (OR = 0.73, p = 0.01). Results were confirmed using the NIS. Analysis revealed novel associations between coexisting psychiatric diagnoses and TBI outcomes, with some subgroups having decreased mortality and increased adverse discharge. Potential mechanisms include pharmacological effects of frequently prescribed psychiatric medications, the pathophysiology of individual psychiatric disorders, or under-coding of psychiatric illness in the most severely injured patients. Because pharmacological mechanisms, if validated, might lead to improved outcome in TBI patients, further studies may provide significant public health benefit.

Extracellular Vesicles in Molecular Diagnostics

All known cells continuously release nanoscale lipid membrane-enclosed packets. These packets, termed extracellular vesicles (EVs), bear the signature of their cells of origin. These vesicles can be detected in just about every type of biofluid tested, including blood, urine, and cerebrospinal fluid. The majority comes from normal cells, but disease cells also release them. There is a great interest in collecting and analyzing EVs in biofluids as diagnostics for a wide spectrum of central nervous system diseases. Here, we will review the state of central nervous system EV research in terms of molecular diagnostics and biomarkers.