Brian Stipak

Are there sensible ways to analyze and use subjective indicators of urban service quality

The application of subjective social indicators to evaluating local governmental services poses problems of interpretation and analysis. For several reasons, higher levels of subjective performance do not necessarily imply that in any other sense service performance is higher. Therefore, it may be erroneous to interpret an indicator such as expressed citizen satisfaction with a service as a measure of the quality of service government actually provides. Comparisons of average satisfaction levels can be especially misleading, as several simple simulation examples illustrate. This paper discusses some of the techniques and assumptions necessary for dealing with these problems, and offers some recommendations for using subjective indicators in local policy analysis.

Drug Treatment and Electronically Monitored Home Confinement: An Evaluation of a Community-Based Sentencing Option

The Intensive Drug Program represents an important innovation in developing sentencing options for offenders with substance abuse problems. By combining mandatory treatment for substance abuse with electronically monitored house arrest the program attempts to reduce criminal behavior and drug use. Statistical analysis of recidivism data and drug test results suggests the program is working. Community-based sentencing options that combine drug treatment with electronic monitoring therefore warrant further consideration as intermediate sentencing options for substance abusers.

Statistical Inference in Contextual Analysis

Political science research in a number of areas is concerned with the effects of contextual explanatory variables. Unfortunately, most past contextual research is seriously flawed by problems of statistical inference that can produce false and misleading results. This paper attempts to equip contextual researchers with a necessary understanding of the main statistical issues involved in contextual analysis. After outlining the basic problems of statistical inference, the paper provides an empirical example that shows strong contextual effects.

Estimating Interval Scale Values for Survey Item Response Categories

Analysts of social science data often need the flexibility and power of intervallevel statistics, even though strictly interval measurement has not been achieved. In such cases, analysts should attempt to assign category values that minimize distortion of the underlying variables. This paper describes a number of methods for category value estimation. The methods include estimation from the observed frequencies based on an assumption about the underlying distribution, estimation from single or multiple criterion variables, and estimation from item text. These techniques can be easily used, and their sensible application can avoid needless measurement error and resulting statistical bias.

Productivity Trends in Local Government Budgeting

This article follows up on the authors’ 1988 rejoinder to the symposium “Budgeting for Improved Productivity,” which appeared in the spring 1987 issue of Public Productivity Review. Using data from a national survey of local government budget practitioners conducted in 1996, 10 years after the first article’s survey, the authors investigate trends in the use and importance of budgeting tools related to productivity. In particular, this article critically examines whether the 1996 survey data support the prediction made in the earlier article of an ongoing trend toward greater emphasis on productivityenhancing management practices in local government.

SIMULTANEOUS SCALING OF OFFENSE SERIOUSNESS AND SENTENCE SEVERITY THROUGH CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS

This article describes and illustrates a new, easily applied method of scaling the severity of different types of criminal sentences and the seriousness of different types of crimes. In contrast to past approaches, this method is based on actual judicial performance, not on opinions or subjective scaling procedures. Using this approach, the effects on sentencing of variables other than type of crime can be examined.

An analysis of the 1968 rapid transit vote in Los Angeles

Analysis of the results of past mass transit bond issues can aid transportation planners in understanding and anticipating voter behavior. This paper reports the results of an analysis of the 1968 rapid transit bond issue vote in Los Angeles, California. The simple relationships of the vote to a variety of possible explanatory variables are first examined. An attempt to assess the relative independent importance of these variables and to offer a partial explanation of the vote using multiple regression analysis is then presented. Variables found to have had the greatest impact on the vote are proximity to the proposed transit system, income-level, and ethnicity. Variables found to have had little or no effect, on the other hand, are population density, age, partisanship, and election turnout rate. The analysis indicates that the frequently used “mood-of-the-electorate” explanation of bond-issue failures in general, and transit proposals in particular, underestimates the quality of the electoral decision. The electorate does make rational distinctions, and future bonding attempts will confront voters capable of perceiving the utility to them of proposed transit systems and voting accordingly. The policy implications of this analysis suggest that the design of future mass transit proposals should, firstly more explicitly attempt to incorporate the preferences of middle-income voters, and secondly, be part of a comprehensive transit plan for the entire metropolitan area.

Coping with State Tax and Expenditure Limitation: The Oregon Experience

SINCE THE PASSAGE of California’s Proposition 13 in 1978, tax and expenditure limitation measures (TELs) have been widely used for altering the revenue systems of state and local governments (Joyce and Mullins 1991). Oregon’s Ballot Measure 5, a TEL passed in 1990, provides an opportunity to (1) identify some of the effects of a TEL on local governments and (2) examine how local officials try to cope with such measures. Oregon’s public sector has considerable experience with tax and expenditure limitations. A cap on the annual percentage increase in the yield of the property tax for local governments has existed for many years, and state law limits increases in the state government’s general revenues and expenditures. A growing displeasure with the property tax culminated in November 1990 with the passage of Ballot Measure 5, an initiative limiting property taxes. Ballot Measure 5 set a 1⁄2 percent property tax rate ceiling. The measure immediately imposed a 1 percent cumulative rate limit on Oregon cities, counties, and special districts (except school districts) and a fiveyear, phased reduction in the rate limit for school districts down to ⁄2 percent. Hence, after five years, the cumulative tax rate for all Coping with State Tax and Expenditure Limitation: The Oregon Experience

Statistical Procedures for Analyzing Factors Affecting Judicial Sentences Using Simultaneously Derived Crime Seriousness and Sentence Severity Scales

A variety of characteristics of the defendant, the case, and the court potentially could affect judicial sentences. Building on a recently published method for scaling the seriousness of the crimes and the severity of sentences, this paper describes procedures for investigating factors affecting sentence severity. An empirical example illustrates the procedures, as well as the problems of interpretation and analysis that arise in statistical studies of sentencing.

Reducing Domestic Violence in the United States: Targeting the Misdemeanour Crime

In 1993, the Portland Police Bureau created a special unit, the Domestic Violence Reduction Unit (DVRU) to address an emerging area of public concern: domestic violence. Focusing on the misdemeanour domestic violence case, the mission of the unit is to reduce the overall level of domestic violence in the community through a programme which provides follow-up investigation, interagency coordination, community education and assistance to victims. The programme provides an example of law enforcements efforts to move beyond arrest to interrupt the cycle of domestic violence crime by enhancing prosecution and by empowering victims. The formation of the unit was a direct result of 1) a philosophy of community policing policy which required consultation with community groups in establishing police priorities and strategies; and 2) changing legal and cultural perspectives on domestic violence crimes. This paper explores the development of the DVRU, its operation and its impact, and discusses its strengths and limitations after five years of experience.