Brice Nichols

Using an Activity-Based Model to Explore the Potential Impacts of Automated Vehicles

Automated vehicles (AVs) may enter the consumer market with various stages of automation in 10 years or even sooner. Meanwhile, regional planning agencies are envisioning plans for time horizons out to 2040 and beyond. To help decision makers understand the effect of AV technology on regional plans, modeling tools should anticipate its impact on transportation networks and traveler choices. This research uses the Seattle, Washington, regions activity-based travel model to test a range of travel behavior impacts from AV technology development. The existing model was not originally designed with AVs in mind, so some modifications to the model assumptions are described in areas of roadway capacity, user values of time, and parking costs. Larger structural model changes were not yet considered. Results of four scenario tests show that improvements in roadway capacity and in the quality of the driving trip may lead to large increases in vehicle miles traveled, while a shift to per mile usage charges may counteract that trend. Travel models will need to have major improvements in the coming years, especially with regard to shared ride, taxi modes, and the effect of multitasking opportunities, to better anticipate the arrival of this technology.

Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance: Its Impacts on Household Driving and Welfare

Vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) can greatly affect crash risk and, therefore, insurance costs, but accurately assessing VMT has been challenging for insurance agencies. Affordable technology now allows insurance companies to track VMT better and has prompted pilot programs and further research of mileage-based, or pay-as-you-drive (PAYD), insurance. Research shows that PAYD programs can discourage extraneous driving and thereby save drivers money (but reduce consumer welfare by less than consumer cost savings) and reduce crash risks, insurers’ costs, and externalities. Studies consider aggregate, national, and statewide effects of PAYD policies, with some focus on equity effects, but much heterogeneity is ignored. This study bolsters existing work by predicting PAYD effects with the use of National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data. These data are used to model driver response to driving cost changes and an insurance pricing model (per vehicle) according to actual loss data and risk factors by vehicle type. This study anticipates PAYD impact variations across a sample of NHTS households and vehicle types and finds that on average households save enough on reduced insurance and travel costs to cover lost welfare from VMT reductions. Results suggest that the average (light-duty) vehicle will be driven 2.7% less (237 fewer annual miles per year), with average consumer benefits of only

Who Rides and Who Pays: Comprehensive Assessment of Motorcycling Costs and Benefits in the United States

2.00 per vehicle with a premium that is partially fixed and partially mileage based. Drivers with the lowest annual VMT needs are expected to receive the largest welfare benefits, thanks to a convex relationship between VMT and crash losses. This analysis provides support to existing literature that PAYD policies can reduce VMT and insurance pricing equity without harming driver welfare.

Air quality impacts of electric vehicle adoption in Texas

A comprehensive benefit–cost assessment of motorcycle use is offered, along with the characteristics, behaviors, and attitudes of motorcycle riders. U.S. motorcyclists are at high risk of crashing, with rates 24 times higher than those of passenger car and light-duty truck drivers per mile traveled. However, motorcycles require only one-quarter the parking space of a car and can reduce congestion by doubling network capacity (in vehicles per hour). Most motorcycles have high fuel economy, but low seating capacities render them little or no better than most cars and some light-duty trucks (assuming average vehicle occupancies) when compared in terms of fuel consumption per rider (or vehicle occupant) mile traveled. Motorcycles emit fewer grams of many polluting emissions but more volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide than most cars if a catalytic converter is not installed. Noise impacts are a serious issue, with an inconsistent patchwork of regulations applied across states and localities. Results of a survey of current and former U.S. motorcyclists indicate that most respondents ride motorcycles for recreational purposes and ride in groups, but about one-half also ride for more mandatory (less discretionary) purposes and about 40% also ride solo. Fewer than one-third of respondents have formal motorcycle training, and helmet use is lowest among current riders who do not own a motorcycle. Engine size appears to be rising, and respondents support policies that combat operating a vehicle under the influence (e.g., ignition interlock devices for offenders). Regression models illuminate key factors and marginal effects on motorcycle riding and ownership rates.