Bridget Browne

Developments in the Management of Annuity Business

The focus of the paper is non-profit lifetime annuities in the UK. Annuity insurers have been faced with, or have initiated, an unprecedented amount of change during the last decade, and rapid change is still continuing. We draw out implications for the actuarial management of the business, arising from the evolution of: longevity risk assessment and management, investment strategy and operations, financial reporting, and enterprise risk management. We discuss Solvency II in some technical depth, analysing the proposed rules for technical provisions and solvency capital requirement.

Longevity: A ‘Simple’ Stochastic Modelling of Mortality

All UK insurers exposed to longevity risk need to perform stress tests for their Individual Capital Assessment (ICA). Some have put in place deterministic models which are arguably too simple; others have developed stochastic models that can be demanding and complex.

A Review of Catastrophic Risks for Life Insurers

Abstract Catastrophic mortality events are characterized by a sudden and concentrated increase in mortality and as such present a major risk to life insurers. Such events include pandemics, war, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and industrial, transport, and other accidents. Of these, pandemics arising from influenza are considered the most significant threat to the life insurance industry due to their capacity to cause a major increase in claims. We review the features and mortality implications of an influenza pandemic for life insurers, and describe a range of other risks that are likely to emerge as well.

Introducing Enterprise Risk Management Into the University Classroom: A Case Study

This article reports on the challenges faced when enterprise risk management courses (commonly studied by practitioners after several years of actuarial practice) were introduced into a postgraduate coursework degree, and taught concurrently with Actuarial Control Cycle (Part II) units. A small sample of students were interviewed, and the information gleaned from these interviews combined with the reflections provided by teaching staff is used to argue that although not problem-free, the overall gain to students makes the project worthwhile. Assessment structure and use of class time in particular are examined as key features of the class, and potential improvements are suggested.

Mortality forecasting using a modified Continuous Mortality Investigation Mortality Projections Model for China I: methodology and country-level results

Abstract In this paper, we project future mortality rates for actuarial use with Chinese data using a modified Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) Mortality Projections Model. The model adopts a convergence structure from “initial” to “long-term” rates of mortality improvement as the process of projection. The initial rates of mortality improvement are derived using two-dimensional P-spline methodology. Given the short history of Chinese data, the long-term rates of mortality improvement are determined by borrowing information from international experience. K-means clustering with dynamic time warping distance is used to classify populations, which is novel in the actuarial mortality research field. The original CMI approach is deterministic, however, in this paper we make it stochastic using techniques outlined by Koller and described by Browne et al. Comparing our results with a pure extrapolative approach, we find that the CMI Mortality Projections Model is more suitable for long-term projections for China.