Britta G. Bierwagen

Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions.

Significance Conversion to urban landforms has consequences for regional climate and the many inhabitants living within the built environment. The purpose of our investigation was to explore hydroclimatic impacts of 21st century urban expansion across the United States and examine the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies in context of long-term global climate change. We show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, urban expansion across the United States imparts warming over large regional swaths of the country that is a significant fraction of anticipated temperature increases resulting from greenhouse gas-induced warming. Adapting to urban-induced climate change is geographically dependent, and the robust analysis that we present offers insights into optimal approaches and anticipated tradeoffs associated with varying expansion pathways. Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1–2 °C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.

The impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function

Recent climate-change research largely confirms the impacts on US ecosystems identified in the 2009 National Climate Assessment and provides greater mechanistic understanding and geographic specificity for those impacts. Pervasive climate-change impacts on ecosystems are those that affect productivity of ecosystems or their ability to process chemical elements. Loss of sea ice, rapid warming, and higher organic inputs affect marine and lake productivity, while combined impacts of wildfire and insect outbreaks decrease forest productivity, mostly in the arid and semi-arid West. Forests in wetter regions are more productive owing to warming. Shifts in species ranges are so extensive that by 2100 they may alter biome composition across 5–20% of US land area. Accelerated losses of nutrients from terrestrial ecosystems to receiving waters are caused by both winter warming and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. Ecosystem feedbacks, especially those associated with release of carbon dioxide and methane rel...

Managing Aquatic Species of Conservation Concern in the Face of Climate Change and Invasive Species

The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species.

Connectivity in urbanizing landscapes: The importance of habitat configuration, urban area size, and dispersal

Human activities affect both the amount and configuration of habitat. These changes have important ecological implications that can be measured as changes in landscape connectivity. I investigated how urbanization interacts with the initial amount and aggregation of habitat to change dispersal potential, restoration potential, and the risk of spatially extensive disturbances. I used a factorial set of simulated landscapes and subjected each landscape to habitat loss by overlaying 66 different US urban areas. I used a common connectivity metric, CONNECT, to assess the magnitude and direction of changes for a range of dispersal distances. My results show that the relationship between habitat loss and connectivity loss is non-linear and subject to interactions between the spatial patterns of habitat distribution, urban morphology, and dispersal capabilities. The implications of a given urban form vary widely as a function of habitat distribution and dispersal capabilities. This implies that impact assessments, restoration activities, and conservation planning should consider historical habitat distribution when evaluating observed changes in connectivity. While my results clearly show that more aggregated or continuous habitats are more vulnerable to connectivity loss, this approach can also be used to identify landscapes where restoring connectivity will be particularly effective, for example through placement of stepping stone habitats.

Vulnerability of biological metrics and multimetric indices to effects of climate change

Abstract Aquatic ecosystems and their fauna are vulnerable to a variety of climate-related changes. Benthic macroinvertebrates are used frequently by water-quality agencies to monitor the status of aquatic resources. We used several regionally distributed state bioassessment data sets to analyze how climate change might influence metrics used to define ecological condition of streams. Many widely used, taxonomically based metrics were composed of both cold- and warm-water-preference taxa, and differing responses of these temperature-preference groups to climate-induced changes in stream temperatures could undermine assessment of stream condition. Climate responsiveness of these trait groups varied among states and ecoregions, but the groups generally were sensitive to changing temperature conditions. Temperature sensitivity of taxa and their sensitivity to organic pollution were moderately but significantly correlated. Therefore, metrics selected for condition assessments because taxa are sensitive to disturbance or to conventional pollutants also were sensitive to changes in temperature. We explored the feasibility of modifying metrics by partitioning components based on temperature sensitivity to reduce the likelihood that responses to climate change would confound responses to impairment from other causes and to facilitate tracking of climate-change-related taxon losses and replacements.

Use of thermal preference metrics to examine state biomonitoring data for climate change effects

Abstract Analyses of long-term data are an important component of climate-change research because they can help further our understanding of the effects of climate change and can help establish expectations for biological responses to future climate changes. We used macroinvertebrate data to assess whether biological trends associated with directional climate change could be detected in routine biomonitoring data from Maine, North Carolina, and Utah. We analyzed data from 8 long-term biomonitoring sites that had 9 to 22 y of data, and focused on thermal-preference metrics based on cold- and warm-water-preference trait groups. The thermal-preference metrics were derived primarily from weighted-average or generalized-linear-model inferences based on data from each state database and are region specific. Long-term trends varied across sites and regions. At some sites, the thermal-preference metrics showed significant patterns that could be interpreted as being related to directional climate change, whereas at others, patterns were not as expected or were not evident. The strongest trends occurred at 2 Utah sites that had ≥14 y of data. At these sites, cold-water taxa were negatively correlated with air temperature, and, when years were grouped into hottest- and coldest-year samples, were strongly reduced in the hottest-year samples. Results suggest that thermal-preference metrics show promise for application in a biomonitoring context to differentiate climate-related responses from other stressors.

Implications of global change for the maintenance of water quality and ecological integrity in the context of current water laws and environmental policies.

There is both a fundamental and applied need to define expectations of changes in aquatic ecosystems due to global changes. It is clear that programs using biological indicators and reference-based comparisons as the foundation for assessments are likely to make increasingly erroneous decisions if the impacts of global change are ignored. Global changes influence all aspects of water resource management decisions based on comparisons to reference conditions with impacts making it increasingly problematic to find an “undisturbed” water body to define acceptable conditions of ecological integrity. Using a more objective scale for characterizing reference conditions that is anchored in expectations for what would be attainable under undisturbed conditions, such as the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) is one approach that maintains consistent definitions for ecosystem conditions. In addition, protection of reference stations and of unique or undisturbed aquatic resources is imperative, though the scope of protection options is limited. Projections indicate that encroaching land use will affect 36–48% of current reference surface waters by the year 2100. The interpretation of biological indicators is also at risk from global changes. Distinguishing taxonomic attributes based on temperature or hydrologic preferences can be used to enhance the ability to make inferences about global change effects compared to other stressors. Difficulties arise in categorizing unique indicators of global changes, because of similarities in some of the temperature and hydrologic effects resulting from climate change, land use changes, and water removal. In the quest for biological indicators that might be uniquely sensitive to one global stressor as an aid in recognizing probable causes of ecosystem damage, the potential similarities in indicator responses among global and landscape-scale changes needs to be recognized as a limiting factor. Many aspects of global changes are not tractable at the local to regional scales at which water quality regulations are typically managed. Our ability to implement water policies through bioassessment will require a shift in the scale of assessment, planning, and adaptations in order to fulfill our ultimate regulatory goals of preserving good water quality and ecological integrity. Providing clear expectations of effects due to global change for key species and communities in freshwater ecosystems will help water quality programs achieve their goals under changing environmental conditions.

Capacity of Management Plans for Aquatic Invasive Species to Integrate Climate Change

The consequences of climate change will affect aquatic ecosystems, including aquatic invasive species (AIS) that are already affecting these ecosystems. Effects on AIS include range shifts and more frequent overwintering of species. These effects may create new challenges for AIS management. We examined available U.S. state AIS management plans to assess each programs capacity to adapt to climate-change effects. We scored the adaptive capacity of AIS management plans on the basis of whether they addressed potential impacts resulting from climate change; demonstrated a capacity to adapt to changing conditions; provided for monitoring strategies; provided for plan revisions; and described funding for implementation. Most plans did not mention climate change specifically, but some did acknowledge climatic boundaries of species and ecosystem sensitivities to changing conditions. Just under half the plans mentioned changing environmental conditions as a factor, most frequently as part of research activities. Activities associated with monitoring showed the highest capacity to include information on changing conditions, and future revisions to management plans are likely to be the easiest avenue through which to address climate-change effects on AIS management activities. Our results show that programs have the capacity to incorporate information about climate-change effects and that the adaptive-management framework may be an appropriate approach.

Climate change and biological indicators: detection, attribution, and management implications for aquatic ecosystems

Climate change is a complex phenomenon that affects the physical, chemical, and biological factors that constitute the intricate ecosystems of the world. Aquatic ecosystems will change in response to climate-induced changes in hydrological regimes, precipitation, and temperature, and these responses are likely to be confounded with responses to changes in land use. Water-resource managers must sort out these impacts for effective decision-making. This challenge may be overwhelming for environmental managers, who already are assessing causes of degradation caused by multiple other stressors. Effective policy and management decisions require

Introduction and Context

Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of climate change and the effects of human development, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources. This report examines the known effects and relationships of these and other climate change variables on coasts of the U.S. It also describes how several major sectors of the U.S. economy are likely to be affected as well as the diversity of adaptation options that are either being considered or already implemented in coastal regions.