Brittain E. Hill

Three nonhomogeneous Poisson models for the probability of basaltic volcanism: Application to the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada

The distribution and timing of areal basaltic volcanism are modeled using three nonhomogeneous methods: spatio-temporal nearest neighbor, kernel, and nearest-neighbor kernel. These models give nonparametric estimates of spatial or spatio-temporal recurrence rate based on the positions and ages of cinder cones and related vent structures and can account for migration and shifts in locus, volcano clustering, and development of regional vent alignments. The three methods are advantageous because (1) recurrence rate and probability maps can be made, facilitating comparison with other geological information; (2) the need to define areas or zones of volcanic activity, required in homogeneous approaches, is eliminated; and (3) the impact of uncertainty in the timing and distribution of individual events is particularly easy to assess. The models are applied to the Yucca Mountain region (YMR), Nevada, the site of a proposed high-level radioactive waste repository. Application of the Hopkins F test, Clark-Evans test, and K function indicates volcanoes cluster in the YMR at the >95% confidence level. Weighted-centroid cluster analysis indicates that Plio-Quaternary volcanoes are distributed in four clusters: three of these clusters include cinder cones formed <1 Ma. Probability of disruption within the 8 km2 area of the proposed repository by formation of a new basaltic vent is calculated to be between 1 × 10−4 and 5 × 10−4 in 104 years (the kernel and nearest-neighbor kernel methods give a maximum probability of 5 × 10−4 in 104 years), assuming regional recurrence rates of 5–10 volcanoes/m.y. An additional finding, illustrating the strength of nonhomogeneous methods, is that maps of the probability of volcanic eruption for the YMR indicate the proposed repository lies on a steep probability gradient: volcanism recurrence rate varies by more than 2 orders of magnitude within 20 km. Insight into this spatial scale of probability variation is a distinct benefit of application of these methods to hazard analysis in areal volcanic fields.

Geologic factors controlling patterns of small‐volume basaltic volcanism: Application to a volcanic hazards assessment at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is located within an active volcanic field. Probabilistic volcanic hazard models for future eruptions through the proposed repository depend heavily on our understanding of the spatial controls on volcano distribution at a variety of scales. On regional scales, Pliocene-Quaternary volcano clusters are located east of the Bare Mountain fault. Extension has resulted in large-scale crustal density contrast across the fault, and vents are restricted to low-density areas of the hanging wall. Finite element modeling indicates that this crustal density contrast can result in transient pressure changes of up to 7 MPa at 40 km depth, providing a mechanism to generate partial melts in areas where mantle rocks are already close to their solidus. On subregional scales, vent alignments, including one alignment newly recognized by ground magnetic mapping, parallel the trends of high-dilation tendency faults in the Yucca Mountain region (YMR). Forty percent of vents in the YMR are part of vent alignments that vary in length from 2 to 16 km. Locally, new geological and geophysical data show that individual vents and short vent alignments occur along and adjacent to faults, particularly at fault intersections, and left-stepping en echelon fault segments adjacent to Yucca Mountain. Conditions which formed these structures persist in the YMR today, indicating that volcanism will likely continue in the region and that the proposed repository site is within an area where future volcanism may occur. On the basis of these data the probability of volcanic disruptions of the proposed repository is estimated between 10−8/yr and 10−7/yr.

1995 ERUPTIONS OF CERRO NEGRO VOLCANO, NICARAGUA, AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR FUTURE ERUPTIONS

Cerro Negro volcano, Nicaragua, continued a 147-yr-long duration of cinder-cone activity with a major eruption in 1995. Small, phreatically driven eruptions began in May 1995 and continued for 79 days. Following a 95 day repose, the main eruption produced 8 × 106 m3 of basalt from Cerro Negro over 13 days of activity and deposited 5 mm of ash in the city of Leon. Although the damage from the 1995 eruptions was fortunately minor, previous tephra falls from Cerro Negro have produced significant crop damage and multiple deaths through building collapse. In spite of its apparent longevity for a historically active cinder cone, Cerro Negro has mass-flow rates typical of arc-related basaltic cinder cone volcanoes. Volcanic hazards beyond 3 km from Cerro Negro consist of tephra falls. Few models are available to calculate tephra-fall risks from basaltic volcanoes such as Cerro Negro, and none have been applied to dispersive cinder cone eruptions. A convective-dispersive model of Suzuki is modified and evaluated using detailed data from the 1995 Cerro Negro eruption and is found to reasonably calculate tephra-fall thickness between 8 and 30 km from the vent. This model is used with detailed data from previous Cerro Negro eruptions in a tephra-fall hazard assessment. Cerro Negro also appears to have had a steady-state eruption rate since about A.D. 1900, which is used to estimate the timing of the next eruption as before A.D. 2006. The potential tephra fall from Cerro Negro in Leon, Nicaragua, is calculated as 2.2 mm/yr until 2006, with 95% confidence that deposits will be <11 cm thick.

Recurrence rates of basaltic volcanism in SP cluster, San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona

Provided is a teat cup inflation which prevents mastitis by eliminating contaminated milk forced backwash which usually occurs during the rest cycle of automatic milking operations and at the same time provides for uniform and adequate massage of the teat. This is accomplished by providing in combination (1) a rigid air-vent plug in the wall of the inflation located just below the pulsating vacuum chamber shell and (2) an inflation having a cross-sectional area of longitudinally reinforced portions and longitudinal unreinforced portions along that section of the inflation which is enclosed within the shell, such that when the inflation collapses, there is effected along the entire length of the teat a massaging action and at the same time there is insured, upon maximum collapse and even as the inflation begins to wear out, a remaining orifice of from about 0.012 square inches to about 0.028 square inches connecting the milking vacuum to the inflation cavity immediately below the end of the teat.

Magmatic and hydromagmatic conduit development during the 1975 Tolbachik Eruption, Kamchatka, with implications for hazards assessment at Yucca Mountain, NV

Abstract Xenoliths in pyroclastic fall deposits from the 1975 Tolbachik eruption constrain the timing and development of subsurface conduits associated with basaltic cinder cone eruptions. The two largest Tolbachik vents contain xenoliths derived from magmatic and hydromagmatic processes, which can be correlated with observed styles of eruption activity. Although many basaltic eruptions progress from early hydromagmatic activity to late magmatic activity, transient hydromagmatic events occurred relatively late in the 1975 eruption sequence. Magmatic fall deposits contain 0.01–0.3 vol.% xenoliths from 500 m depth into the dry-out zone around the conduit, disrupting and ejecting 10 5 –10 6 m 3 of wall-rock through hydromagmatic processes with conduits widening to 8–48 m. Hydromagmatic falls contain 60–75 vol.% of highly fragmented xenoliths, with juvenile clasts displaying obvious magma-water interaction features. During the largest hydromagmatic event, unusual breccia-bombs formed containing a wide range of fresh and pyrometamorphic xenoliths suspended in a quenched basaltic matrix. Hydromagmatic activity during the 1975 Tolbachik eruption occurred below likely fragmentation depths for a basalt containing 2.2 wt.% magmatic water. This activity is more likely related to conduit-wall collapse rather than variations in conduit-flow pressure. In contrast, larger volume silicic eruptions may have transient hydromagmatic events in response to conduit flow dynamics above the magma fragmentation depth. The 1975 Tolbachik volcanoes are reasonably analogous to Quaternary basaltic volcanoes in the Yucca Mountain region and can guide interpretations of their poorly preserved deposits. The youngest basaltic volcanoes near Yucca Mountain have cone deposits characterized by elevated xenolith abundances and distinctive xenolith breccia-bombs, remarkably similar to 1975 Tolbachik deposits. Extrapolation of 1975 Tolbachik data suggests conduits for some Yucca Mountain basaltic volcanoes may have widened locally on the order of 50 m in response to late-stage hydromagmatic events.

Soil222Rn pulse during the initial phase of the June–August 1995 eruption of Cerro Negro, Nicaragua

The June–August 1995 eruption of Cerro Negro, a small-volume basaltic cinder cone in Nicaragua, provided a unique opportunity to quantify 222Rn degassing from soils in response to explosive volcanic activity. 222Rn was monitored at 29 stations using electrostatically charged teflon 222Rn detectors distributed north and southeast of the volcano. A pulse of elevated 222Rn degassing occurred early in the eruption along a > 1 km long zone, extending at least 750 m beyond the base of the cinder cone. Observation of this 222Rn pulse shows that large changes in soil 222Rn concentration can occur simultaneously at widely separated stations in response to even comparatively small-volume intrusions and volcanic eruptions. Frequent 222Rn sampling at multiple stations provides a sense of the magnitude, time scales and area affected by convective gas transport during volcanic eruptions.

Orthogonal jointing during coeval igneous degassing and normal faulting, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

An orthogonal system of tube-bearing joints constitutes the oldest fractures in the Tiva Canyon Tuff at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The joints formed within a month of ignimbrite deposition, prior to major degassing. The system consists of (1) narrow, persistent, northeast-striking joint swarms with trace lengths typically greater than 5 m and between-joint spacings of less than 20 cm and (2) northwest-striking swarms that have a more en echelon geometry and greater between-joint spacings compared to the northeast-striking swarms. Between-swarm spacing for both trends is ∼50 m. Questions concerning the joints include the following: (1) What was the origin of driving stress(es) for formation of the joints, particularly as their orientations were not consistent with the regional stress geometry at the time of their formation? (2) What mechanism caused the horizontal principal stresses to be reoriented so as to yield an orthogonal geometry? (3) What insights can be developed for predicting joint geometry in unexposed rock volumes by understanding joint origin? These questions are important because the joints and other fractures may affect the performance of a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository within Yucca Mountain. To address these questions, we use new and existing field data about joint geometry and the relationships of joints to degassing structures, numerical modeling of fault behavior, and work by previous authors. Our interpretation begins with the initial ignimbrite eruption and deposition during caldera collapse. The ignimbrites were deposited over a preexisting topography that possibly included a shallow northwest-trending basin in the Yucca Mountain area. During initial ignimbrite cooling, joint swarms formed as elements of orthogonal fumarolic ridge systems where degassing was associated with vertical dilation. Both joint sets have unusual tubes that are interpreted to have formed during dilation and segmentation of joint faces resulting from lithophysae inflation in the cooling ignimbrite deposit. Modeling supports the interpretation that a combination of regional stresses and stress related to slip on local normal faults controlled the orientation of the joint swarms and favored the formation of the northeast-striking joints first. The faults might have moved in a stress field already perturbed by caldera collapse. Formation of the northwest-striking joints occurred after a local 90° switch of horizontal principal stress directions due to the presence of the northeast-striking swarms, possibly aided by differential compaction across the northwest-trending basin. Tube- bearing joints occur in all lithophysae-bearing lithostratigraphic units of the Topopah Spring Tuff, which is the stratigraphic interval for the proposed nuclear waste repository within Yucca Mountain. We conclude that the tube-bearing joints formed in the same manner and share similar geometric characteristics, adding a persistent joint population to the overall fracture system that influences hydrological and mechanical properties.

Magnetic surveys help reassess volcanic hazards at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Natural disasters like volcanic eruptions occur infrequently, but if they occur near nuclear power plants or high-level radioactive waste repositories, local and global communities can be threatened. Ideally, such facilities should be constructed only where geologic risk is very low. Estimating the probabilities of such events requires a comprehensive understanding of site geology and the geologic processes operating in the site region on timescales of 104 to 107 years. In light of these requirements, geologists and geophysicists must continually improve techniques for site characterization.