Bronwyn Lind

Fluctuations in heroin purity and the incidence of fatal heroin overdose

In order to determine the role played by heroin purity in fatal heroin overdoses, time series analyses were conducted on the purity of street heroin seizures in south western Sydney and overdose fatalities in that region. A total of 322 heroin samples were analysed in fortnightly periods between February 1993 to January 1995. A total of 61 overdose deaths occurred in the region in the study period. Cross correlation plots revealed a significant correlation of 0.57 at time lag zero between mean purity of heroin samples per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. Similarly, there was a significant correlation of 0.50 at time lag zero between the highest heroin purity per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. The correlation between range of heroin purity and number of deaths per fortnight was 0.40. A simultaneous multiple regression on scores adjusted for first order correlation indicated both the mean level of heroin purity and the range of heroin purity were independent predictors of the number of deaths per fortnight. The results indicate that the occurrence of overdose fatalities was moderately associated with both the average heroin purity and the range of heroin purity over the study period.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the New South Wales Adult Drug Court Program.

In New South Wales, Australia, a cost-effectiveness evaluation was conducted of an adult drug court (ADC) program as an alternative to jail for criminal offenders addicted to illicit drugs. This article describes the program, the cost-effectiveness analysis, and the results. The results of this study reveal that, for the 23-month period of the evaluation, the ADC was as cost-effective as were conventional sanctions in delaying the time to the first offense and more cost-effective in reducing the frequency of offending for those outcome measures selected. Although the evaluation was conducted using the traditional steps of a cost-effectiveness analysis, because of the complexity of the program and data limitations it was not always possible to adhere to textbook procedures. As such, each step involved in undertaking the cost-effectiveness analysis is discussed, highlighting the key issues faced in the evaluation.

“Hotbeds of Crime?” Crime and Public Housing in Urban Sydney

Public housing estates in Britain, the United States, and Australia are frequently plagued by crime problems. In Australia at least, policy debate about how to address these problems has been dominated by the view that public housing design influences crime by controlling the supply of opportunities for offending (the design hypothesis). An alternate and less frequently considered possibility is that public housing estates experience persistent crime problems simply because crime-prone individuals are (by reason of their economic and social disadvantage) more likely to be allocated to public housing (the allocation hypothesis). This article reports the results of research designed to test the two hypotheses. The results support the allocation hypothesis.

On the Epidemiology of Offender Populations

This article presents a model of offender population growth, similar to those used for modelling epidemics of infectious disease. The model is built on the premise that juveniles whose families are affected by economic stress become “susceptible” to “infection” (involvement in crime) and that susceptible juveniles become delinquent on contact with other delinquents. This premise is based on evidence, which is presented in the article, that parenting factors and delinquent peer influence mediate the effects of economic stress on involvement in crime. Simulations of the model are used to demonstrate that this approach can explain some of the anomalies associated with traditional approaches to explaining the link between economic stress and crime.

The Short-Run Effects of Economic Adversity on Property Crime: An Australian Case Study

Criminological theory has historically assumed that economic adversity increases crime rates because it increases the motivation to offend. This assumption appears supported in cross-sectional studies of the relationship between economic adversity and crime but time series studies have generally produced much less consistent results. Attempts to resolve this anomaly without abandoning the motivational hypothesis have met with mixed success. The purpose of this paper is to test the motivational assumption using monthly data drawn from a period during which a severe recession occurred. The results of the study do not support the motivational assumption. Alternative explanations of the aggregate-level relationship between economic adversity and property crime are canvassed.