Brooke Ronald Johnson

Abortion incidence between 1990 and 2014: global, regional, and subregional levels and trends

BACKGROUND Information about the incidence of induced abortion is needed to motivate and inform efforts to help women avoid unintended pregnancies and to monitor progress toward that end. We estimate subregional, regional, and global levels and trends in abortion incidence for 1990 to 2014, and abortion rates in subgroups of women. We use the results to estimate the proportion of pregnancies that end in abortion and examine whether abortion rates vary in countries grouped by the legal status of abortion. METHODS We requested abortion data from government agencies and compiled data from international sources and nationally representative studies. With data for 1069 country-years, we estimated incidence using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model whereby the overall abortion rate is a function of the modelled rates in subgroups of women of reproductive age defined by their marital status and contraceptive need and use, and the sizes of these subgroups. FINDINGS We estimated that 35 abortions (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 33 to 44) occurred annually per 1000 women aged 15-44 years worldwide in 2010-14, which was 5 points less than 40 (39-48) in 1990-94 (90% UI for decline -11 to 0). Because of population growth, the annual number of abortions worldwide increased by 5.9 million (90% UI -1.3 to 15.4), from 50.4 million in 1990-94 (48.6 to 59.9) to 56.3 million (52.4 to 70.0) in 2010-14. In the developed world, the abortion rate declined 19 points (-26 to -14), from 46 (41 to 59) to 27 (24 to 37). In the developing world, we found a non-significant 2 point decline (90% UI -9 to 4) in the rate from 39 (37 to 47) to 37 (34 to 46). Some 25% (90% UI 23 to 29) of pregnancies ended in abortion in 2010-14. Globally, 73% (90% UI 59 to 82) of abortions were obtained by married women in 2010-14 compared with 27% (18 to 41) obtained by unmarried women. We did not observe an association between the abortion rates for 2010-14 and the grounds under which abortion is legally allowed. INTERPRETATION Abortion rates have declined significantly since 1990 in the developed world but not in the developing world. Ensuring access to sexual and reproductive health care could help millions of women avoid unintended pregnancies and ensure access to safe abortion. FUNDING UK Government, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

The magnitude of abortion complications in Kenya

Objective  To estimate and describe the magnitude of abortion complications presenting at public hospitals in Kenya.

From concept to measurement: operationalizing WHO's definition of unsafe abortion

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines unsafe abortion as a procedure for terminating a pregnancy performed by persons lacking the necessary skills or in an environment not in conformity with minimal medical standards, or both. This definition embodies concepts first outlined in a 1992 WHO Technical Consultation.1 Although widely used, it is inconsistently interpreted. In this editorial we discuss its correct interpretation and operationalization. WHO’s definition of unsafe abortion was conceptualized within the framework of emerging guidelines on the management of the complications of induced abortion and was intended to be interpreted within that context. This linkage to technical guidelines is crucial for its correct interpretation. Nothing in the definition predetermines who should be considered a “safe” abortion provider or what the appropriate skills or standards for performing abortions should be. Such things are not static; they evolve in line with evidence-based WHO recommendations. For example, WHO guidelines now recommend mifepristone and misoprostol – or misoprostol alone if mifepristone is not available – and vacuum aspiration in lieu of the sharp curettage used formerly. They now consider induced abortions provided at the primary care level or by non-physician health-care providers as safe.2 The guidelines on task shifting that are being developed are expected to clarify who can safely provide an abortion under current standards. To ensure that “unsafe abortion” is correctly interpreted, we recommend always providing an explanatory note along with the definition, as follows: “The persons, skills and medical standards considered safe in the provision of abortion are different for medical and surgical abortion and also depend on the duration of the pregnancy. What is considered ‘safe’ should be interpreted in line with current WHO technical and policy guidance.” Although unsafe abortions are, by definition, risky, safety cannot be dichotomized because risk runs along a continuum. Risk is lowest if an evidence-based method is used to terminate an early pregnancy in a health facility;3 it is highest if a dangerous method, such as the use of caustic substances orally or vaginally or the insertion of sticks into the uterus, is employed clandestinely to terminate an advanced pregnancy. There is a spectrum of risk between these two extremes. Along that spectrum, for example, lie cases of self-administration of misoprostol or the use of outdated procedures, such as sharp curettage, by skilled health-care providers. The immediate determinants of the risks of an induced abortion, such as the termination method used and gestational age, are influenced, in turn, by underlying social determinants: i.e. the legal context, the availability of safe abortion services, the level of stigma surrounding abortion, the degree of women’s access to information on abortion, and a woman’s age and socioeconomic status. The legal context and the level of safety are closely intertwined, but the association is context-specific. For example, where restrictive laws are liberally interpreted, women can receive safe care in certain contexts; conversely, where liberal laws are poorly implemented, women sometimes abort with delay and under unsafe conditions. Thus, illegal abortion is not synonymous with unsafe abortion, as indicated by the original definition: “…legality or illegality of services, however, may not be the defining factor of their safety […] the safety of abortion must be considered within both the legal and legally restricted contexts.”1 Rates of induced abortion are difficult to measure because of frequent underreporting or misclassification in surveys, hospital records and health statistics.4 In light of this, WHO has historically used a pragmatic operational construct that measures safety in terms of only one dimension – legality – in developing its regional and global estimates of rates of unsafe abortion.4,5 However, the widespread informal use of misoprostol has added a layer of complexity to the concept of “safety”. As a result, it has become essential to apply a multi-dimensional risk continuum to measure abortion safety. The adverse outcomes associated with unsafe abortion need to be measured as well. Since deaths resulting from unsafe abortion have decreased in recent years,4 perhaps because of safer methods, the focus should now be broadened from mortality to morbidity as well. A multi-dimensional assessment of the safety of induced abortions, as described, makes estimation more difficult, but the more nuanced measures involved could generate more innovative research and improve the data collected locally and nationally. Assessing the safety of induced abortion does not suffice, however. In the longer term, global consensus will be needed on the broader indicators used to assess the provision of safe abortion in line with WHO guidance – i.e. indicators capturing access, equity, quality of care and linkages to post-abortion contraception.

Global, regional, and subregional classification of abortions by safety, 2010–14: estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model

Summary Background Global estimates of unsafe abortions have been produced for 1995, 2003, and 2008. However, reconceptualisation of the framework and methods for estimating abortion safety is needed owing to the increased availability of simple methods for safe abortion (eg, medical abortion), the increasingly widespread use of misoprostol outside formal health systems in contexts where abortion is legally restricted, and the need to account for the multiple factors that affect abortion safety. Methods We used all available empirical data on abortion methods, providers, and settings, and factors affecting safety as covariates within a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the global, regional, and subregional distributions of abortion by safety categories. We used a three-tiered categorisation based on the WHO definition of unsafe abortion and WHO guidelines on safe abortion to categorise abortions as safe or unsafe and to further divide unsafe abortions into two categories of less safe and least safe. Findings Of the 55· 7 million abortions that occurred worldwide each year between 2010–14, we estimated that 30·6 million (54·9%, 90% uncertainty interval 49·9–59·4) were safe, 17·1 million (30·7%, 25·5–35·6) were less safe, and 8·0 million (14·4%, 11·5–18·1) were least safe. Thus, 25·1 million (45·1%, 40·6–50·1) abortions each year between 2010 and 2014 were unsafe, with 24·3 million (97%) of these in developing countries. The proportion of unsafe abortions was significantly higher in developing countries than developed countries (49·5% vs 12·5%). When grouped by the legal status of abortion, the proportion of unsafe abortions was significantly higher in countries with highly restrictive abortion laws than in those with less restrictive laws. Interpretation Increased efforts are needed, especially in developing countries, to ensure access to safe abortion. The paucity of empirical data is a limitation of these findings. Improved in-country data for health services and innovative research to address these gaps are needed to improve future estimates. Funding UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction; David and Lucile Packard Foundation; UK Aid from the UK Government; Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation.

A strategic assessment of unsafe abortion in Malawi.

Abstract As part of efforts to achieve Millennium Development Goal 5 – to reduce maternal mortality by 75% and achieve universal access to reproductive health by 2015 – the Malawi Ministry of Health conducted a strategic assessment of unsafe abortion in Malawi. This paper describes the findings of the assessment, including a human rights-based review of Malawis laws, policies and international agreements relating to sexual and reproductive health and data from 485 in-depth interviews about sexual and reproductive health, maternal mortality and unsafe abortion, conducted with Malawians from all parts of the country and social strata. Consensus recommendations to address the issue of unsafe abortion were developed by a broad base of local and international stakeholders during a national dissemination meeting. Malawis restrictive abortion law, inaccessibility of safe abortion services, particularly for poor and young women, and lack of adequate family planning, youth-friendly and post-abortion care services were the most important barriers. The consensus reached was that to make abortion safe in Malawi, there were four areas for urgent action – abortion law reform; sexuality education and family planning; adolescent sexual and reproductive health services; and post-abortion care services.

Tracking maternal mortality declines in Mongolia between 1992 and 2007: the importance of collaboration

OBJECTIVE To describe the declining trend in maternal mortality observed in Mongolia from 1992 to 2007 and its acceleration after 2001 following implementation of the Maternal Mortality Reduction Strategy by the Ministry of Health and other partners. METHODS We performed a descriptive analysis of maternal mortality data collected through Mongolias vital registration system and provided by the Mongolian Ministry of Health. The observed declining mortality trend was analysed for statistical significance using simple linear regression. We present the maternal mortality ratios from 1992 to 2007 by year and review the basic components of Mongolias Maternal Mortality Reduction Strategy for 2001-2004 and 2005-2010. FINDINGS Mongolia achieved a statistically significant annual decrease in its maternal mortality ratio of almost 10 deaths per 100 000 live births over the period 1992-2007. From 2001 to 2007, the maternal mortality ratio in Mongolia decreased approximately 47%, from 169 to 89.6 deaths per 100 000 live births. CONCLUSION Disparities in maternal mortality represent one of the major persisting health inequities between low- and high-resource countries. Nonetheless, important reductions in low-resource settings are possible through collaborative strategies based on a horizontal approach and the coordinated involvement of key partners, including health ministries, national and international agencies and donors, health-care professionals, the media, nongovernmental organizations and the general public.

Maternal and perinatal health research priorities beyond 2015: an international survey and prioritization exercise.

BackgroundMaternal mortality has declined by nearly half since 1990, but over a quarter million women still die every year of causes related to pregnancy and childbirth. Maternal-health related targets are falling short of the 2015 Millennium Development Goals and a post-2015 Development Agenda is emerging. In connection with this, setting global research priorities for the next decade is now required.MethodsWe adapted the methods of the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) to identify and set global research priorities for maternal and perinatal health for the period 2015 to 2025. Priority research questions were received from various international stakeholders constituting a large reference group, and consolidated into a final list of research questions by a technical working group. Questions on this list were then scored by the reference working group according to five independent and equally weighted criteria. Normalized research priority scores (NRPS) were calculated, and research priority questions were ranked accordingly.ResultsA list of 190 priority research questions for improving maternal and perinatal health was scored by 140 stakeholders. Most priority research questions (89%) were concerned with the evaluation of implementation and delivery of existing interventions, with research subthemes frequently concerned with training and/or awareness interventions (11%), and access to interventions and/or services (14%). Twenty-one questions (11%) involved the discovery of new interventions or technologies.ConclusionsKey research priorities in maternal and perinatal health were identified. The resulting ranked list of research questions provides a valuable resource for health research investors, researchers and other stakeholders. We are hopeful that this exercise will inform the post-2015 Development Agenda and assist donors, research-policy decision makers and researchers to invest in research that will ultimately make the most significant difference in the lives of mothers and babies.

Conscientious objection to provision of legal abortion care

Despite advances in scientific evidence, technologies, and human rights rationale for providing safe abortion, a broad range of cultural, regulatory, and health system barriers that deter access to abortion continues to exist in many countries. When conscientious objection to provision of abortion becomes one of these barriers, it can create risks to womens health and the enjoyment of their human rights. To eliminate this barrier, states should implement regulations for healthcare providers on how to invoke conscientious objection without jeopardizing womens access to safe, legal abortion services, especially with regard to timely referral for care and in emergency cases when referral is not possible. In addition, states should take all necessary measures to ensure that all women and adolescents have the means to prevent unintended pregnancies and to obtain safe abortion.

Study protocol on establishment of sentinel sites network for contraceptive and abortion trends, needs and utilization of services in Zika virus affected countries

BackgroundZIKV(Zika Virus) during pregnancy can result in many adverse events such as fetal deaths or newborns with congenital abnormalities including microcephaly and other neural irregularities. Due to these harmful outcomes of pregnancy associated with the Zika virus, we can expect to see a change in the type and scale of demand for family planning and safe abortion services in areas affected by the Zika virus. The monitoring and reporting capacities of the local health clinics in these areas could benefit from the introduction of infrastructural improvements necessary to establish a sentinel site network. Through these sites, the WHO will collect data on the situation from local health professionals to get real time information from the population group and act accordingly to mitigate the consequences of the Zika virus outbreak in a localized and culturally appropriate way. The objectives are to establish a sentinel sites surveillance network for reporting on uptake and utilization of contraception and safe abortion care services; to strengthen monitoring, and data quality assurance in the selected sentinel surveillance sites; and finally to assess the contraception and safe abortion care service utilization trends in the affected sites on a regular basis.MethodsThe proposal includes a set of objectives and actions that enable the creation of a set of criteria for the selection of the sentinel sites, as well the implementation of monitoring and reporting systems that will be used in data collection.DiscussionThe data collected will be used to better understand the changing demand for family planning and safe abortion needs. This will ultimately be used to inform local health workers and policy makers as to how best to track the continued Zika virus outbreak and mitigate the consequences. The learning from establishment of surveillance sentinel sites will help to strengthen health systems at regional and subregional levels that are more adaptable and capable of providing reproductive healthcare services and of responding to future emergencies.

A study protocol for facility assessment and follow-up evaluations of the barriers to access, availability, utilization and readiness of contraception, abortion and postabortion services in Zika affected areas

BackgroundThe Zika virus epidemic in Latin America has elicited official recommendations for women to delay or avoid pregnancy in affected countries, which has increased demand for family planning services. It is likely, however, that health facilities in areas where the population is most vulnerable to the disease lack the capacity to respond to the increased demand for family planning services. Our objectives are to perform facilities assessment and understand client perceptions in areas affected by Zika virus, and to track changes in these parameters over time.Methods/designWe will collaborate with local health authorities to map facilities that have the capacity to provide services in contraception and safe abortion, including induced abortion to the full extent of the law and post-abortion care for treatment of complications from unsafe abortion and post-abortion contraception. We then will carry out a survey of facilities to assess the availability of services and their readiness to provide contraception and safe abortion care. All facilities will be assessed for baseline readiness and availability of services, and a random subsample of surveyed facilities will be reassessed in second and third rounds of surveys. Focus group interviews with clients will be conducted as part of the facilities surveys in order to gain an understanding of the community’s knowledge, needs and perceived barriers to healthcare in the context of the Zika virus epidemic.DiscussionThe findings of this study will aid the response to Zika virus ranging from the identification of healthcare facilities that can be potentially strengthened, to the formulation of interventions to reduce barriers and improve readiness of facilities to provide contraception and safe abortion services. Lessons learned from this study will help to build and strengthen health systems that are more prepared to consistently providing reproductive healthcare services in the context of health emergencies.