Bruce A. Weinberg

Crime Rates and Local Labor Market Opportunities in the United States: 1979-1997

The labor market prospects of young, unskilled men fell dramatically in the 1980s and improved in the 1990s. Crime rates show a reverse pattern: increasing during the 1980s and falling in the 1990s. Because young, unskilled men commit most crime, this paper seeks to establish a causal relationship between the two trends. Previous work on the relationship between labor markets and crime focused mainly on the relationship between the unemployment rate and crime, and found inconclusive results. In contrast, this paper examines the impact of both wages and unemployment on crime, and uses instrumental variables to establish causality. We conclude that both wages and unemployment are significantly related to crime, but that wages played a larger role in the crime trends over the last few decades. These results are robust to the inclusion of deterrence variables, controls for simultaneity, and controlling for individual and family characteristics.

Do Neighborhoods Affect Hours Worked? Evidence from Longitudinal Data

Using a confidential version of the NLSY79, we estimate large effects of neighborhood social characteristics and job proximity on labor market activity. A variety of neighborhood social characteristics are associated with less market work. Social characteristics have nonlinear effects, with the greatest impact in the worst neighborhoods. Social characteristics are also more important for less‐educated workers. Exploiting the panel aspects of our data, we find that estimates that do not account for neighborhood selection on the basis of time‐invariant and time‐varying unobserved individual characteristics substantially overstate the social effects of neighborhoods but understate the effects of job access.

Interpersonal Styles and Labor Market Outcomes

This paper develops a framework of the role of interpersonal interactions in the labor market. Effective interpersonal interactions involve caring and directness. The ability to perform these tasks varies with personality and the importance of these tasks varies across jobs. An assignment model shows that people are most productive in jobs that match their style. An oversupply of one attribute relative to the other reduces wages for people who are better with the attribute in greater supply. We present evidence that youth sociability affects job assignment in adulthood. The returns to interpersonal interactions are consistent with the assignment model.

Precautionary Demand for Education, Inequality, and Technological Progress

This paper offers an explanation for the evolution of wage inequality within and between industries and education groups over the past several decades. The model is based on the disproportionate depreciation of technology-specific skills versus general skills due to technological progress, which occurs randomly across sectors. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model predicts that increasing randomness is the primary source of inequality growth within uneducated workers, whereas inequality growth within educated workers is determined more by changes in the composition and return to ability. Increasing randomness generates a “precautionary” demand for education, which we show empirically to be significant.

Computer Use and the Demand for Female Workers

Using data from the March and October CPS, the author investigates the effect of computers on the demand for female workers. A model illustrates that computers, by changing skill requirements and the conditions of work—de-emphasizing physical skill—should favor women even if women have no advantage over men in using computers or in acquiring computer skills. Decompositions of the growth in womens employment and cross-industry-occupation regressions indicate that increases in computer use can account for over half of the growth in demand for female workers. Consistent with the hypothesis that differences in the physical requirements of jobs are responsible for these effects, increases in computer use have the greatest effect among skilled blue-collar workers and workers with less than a college education. The increase in computer use may contribute to an apparent substitutability between highly skilled women and less skilled men found in other research.

Age and the Quality of Work: the Case of Modern American Painters

Psychologists have found that the age at which successful practitioners typically do their best work varies across professions, but they have not considered whether these peak ages change over time, as economic models suggest they might. Using auction records, we estimate the relationship between artists’ ages and the value of their paintings for two successive cohorts of leading modern American painters: de Kooning, Pollock, Rothko, and others born during 1900–1920 and Frank Stella, Warhol, and others born during 1921–40. We find that a substantial decline occurred over time in the age at which these artists produced their most valuable—and most important—work and argue that this was caused by a shift in the nature of the demand for modern art during the 1950s.

The Impact of Neighborhood Homeownership Rates: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature

Interest in measuring the impact of neighborhood homeownership rates on the residents of a neighborhood and on surrounding neighborhoods is increasing. This topic is part of the growing literature in the social sciences that discusses the theory and measurement of how neighborhoods affect individuals. In this review, we report on the conceptual categorization of the types of neighborhood effects, we review the social science literature that presents theories of how neighborhoods affect the residents or surrounding areas, and we review the empirical literature that measures the size of neighborhood effects. Throughout, we highlight the impact that differences in neighborhood homeownership rates may have on the economic and social outcomes of the residents. We find numerous theories that, when applied to neighborhood homeownership rates, have rich sets of testable predictions. In contrast, we find few empirical studies of the impact of neighborhood homeownership rates. We conclude that little is known about the impact of cross-sectional or intertemporal variations in neighborhood ownership rates and a substantial amount of additional research is needed. We show that understanding the way in which neighborhood homeownership rates impact behaviors is very important to measuring the impact of public policy. Also, knowing whether neighborhood homeownership effects have a nonlinear impact is important when deciding whether public policy should encourage clusters of homeowners.

An Incentive Model of the Effect of Parental Income on Children

Economists explain the positive relationship between parental income and children’s outcomes using an investment model. Building on work in psychology and sociology, this paper emphasizes the importance of child‐rearing practices, which vary with income. I argue that parents’ ability to mold their children’s behavior through pecuniary incentives is limited at low incomes, leading to lower outcomes and increased reliance on nonpecuniary mechanisms such as corporal punishment. My model generates a positive relationship between parental income and children’s outcomes especially at low incomes and endogenously produces a relationship between parental income and child‐rearing practices. Empirical work confirms these implications.

Evaluating Teaching in Higher Education

The authors develop an original measure of learning in higher education, based on grades in subsequent courses. Using this measure of learning, they show that student evaluations are positively related to current grades but unrelated to learning once current grades are controlled. They offer evidence that the weak relationship between learning and student evaluations arises, in part, because students are unaware of how much they have learned in a course. They conclude with a discussion of easily implemented, optimal methods for evaluating teaching.

Age dynamics in scientific creativity

Data on Nobel Laureates show that the age–creativity relationship varies substantially more over time than across fields. The age dynamics within fields closely mirror field-specific shifts in (i) training patterns and (ii) the prevalence of theoretical contributions. These dynamics are especially pronounced in physics and coincide with the emergence of quantum mechanics. Taken together, these findings show fundamental shifts in the life cycle of research productivity, inform theories of the age–creativity relationship, and provide observable predictors for the age at which great achievements are made.