Bruce McWilliams

Demonstrations and money-back guarantees: market mechanisms to reduce uncertainty

Abstract This paper analyzes consumer, retailer and manufacturer preferences for use of two important risk reduction tools: money-back guarantees and demonstrations. Theoretical findings from economics, marketing, consumer behavior and psychology are integrated to analyze the performance of these mechanisms under various conditions and product characteristics. The paper investigates the relationship between these two risk reduction mechanisms and reveals in which ways the two are complements or substitutes, identifying under which conditions money-back guarantees and demonstrations will be used separately, together, or not at all.

Learning and Forgetting: Modeling Optimal Product Sampling Over Time

Firms use samples to increase the sales of almost all consumable goods, including food, health, and cleaning products. Despite its importance, sampling remains one of the most under-researched areas. There are no theoretical quantitative models of sampling behavior other than the pioneering work of Jain et al. (1995), who modeled sampling as an important factor in the diffusion of new products.In this paper we characterize sampling as having two effects. The first is the change in the probability of a consumer purchasing a product immediately after having sampled the product. The second is an increase in the consumers cumulative goodwill formation, which results from sampling the product. This distinction differentiates our model from other models of goodwill, in which firm sales are only a function of the existing goodwill level.We determine the optimal dynamic sampling effort of a firm and examine the factors that affect the sampling decision. We find that although the sampling effort will decline over a products life cycle, it may continue in mature products. Another finding is that when we have a positive change in the factors that increase sampling productivity, steady-state goodwill stock and sales will increase, but equilibrium sampling can either increase or decrease. The change in the sampling level is indeterminate because, while increased sampling productivity means that firms have incentives to increase sampling, the increase in the equilibrium goodwill level indirectly reduces the marginal productivity of sampling, thus reducing the incentives to sample. We discuss managerial implications, and how the model can be used to address various circumstances.

Time Of Technology Adoption And Learning By Using

Learning by using is introduced into an adoption model to explain why larger and more educated firms adopt earlier. Dynamic economies of scale arise in learning by using that speed up adoption. The empirical estimation of time of adoption using Tobit analysis integrates the concepts of adoption and diffusion, allowing the diffusion of the technology to be derived from the time of adoption analysis. In addition, by introducing heterogeneity among the adopters, Tobit analysis is shown to provide superior results to the traditional logit and probit analysis of the dichotomous adopt/not adopt variable.

Wafer-Scale Laser Pantography: IV. Physics of Direct Laser-Writing Micron-Dimension Transistors

The processes involved in the fabrication of micron-dimension transistors and small-scale integrated circuits using only the technique of direct laser-writing by localized pyrolytic surface reactions are discussed. New experimental findings in the deposition of tungsten by silicon. surface reduction of tungsten hexafluoride and doped polysilicon are presented. The techniques used to fabricate laser beam-written n-MOSFETs are being extended to make unipolar JFETs and bipolar lateral pnp transistors.

Count-data regression models of the time to adopt new technologies

This paper presents a framework for interpreting and using the count-data model for estimating the time of technology adoption. The Bernoulli trials of the negative binomial model are interpreted as the stages involved in a potential adopter learning and updating information relevant to a new technology. Empirically, the paper estimates the Poisson, the generalized negative binomial, and the geometric models in order to identify the determinants of computer adoption on farms in California.

Wafer-Scale Laser Pantography: VI. Direct-Write Interconnection Of VLSI Gate Arrays

General principles of laser direct-write deposition processes are reviewed. Device interconnection of CMOS gate arrays by means of computer-controlled, laser-induced thermochemical surface reactions is described. Interconnection quality parameters are related, and processing rate considerations are discussed.