Bruce Neal

Intensive blood glucose control and vascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND In patients with type 2 diabetes, the effects of intensive glucose control on vascular outcomes remain uncertain. METHODS We randomly assigned 11,140 patients with type 2 diabetes to undergo either standard glucose control or intensive glucose control, defined as the use of gliclazide (modified release) plus other drugs as required to achieve a glycated hemoglobin value of 6.5% or less. Primary end points were composites of major macrovascular events (death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke) and major microvascular events (new or worsening nephropathy or retinopathy), assessed both jointly and separately. RESULTS After a median of 5 years of follow-up, the mean glycated hemoglobin level was lower in the intensive-control group (6.5%) than in the standard-control group (7.3%). Intensive control reduced the incidence of combined major macrovascular and microvascular events (18.1%, vs. 20.0% with standard control; hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.98; P=0.01), as well as that of major microvascular events (9.4% vs. 10.9%; hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.97; P=0.01), primarily because of a reduction in the incidence of nephropathy (4.1% vs. 5.2%; hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.93; P=0.006), with no significant effect on retinopathy (P=0.50). There were no significant effects of the type of glucose control on major macrovascular events (hazard ratio with intensive control, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.06; P=0.32), death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio with intensive control, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.04; P=0.12), or death from any cause (hazard ratio with intensive control, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P=0.28). Severe hypoglycemia, although uncommon, was more common in the intensive-control group (2.7%, vs. 1.5% in the standard-control group; hazard ratio, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.42 to 2.40; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS A strategy of intensive glucose control, involving gliclazide (modified release) and other drugs as required, that lowered the glycated hemoglobin value to 6.5% yielded a 10% relative reduction in the combined outcome of major macrovascular and microvascular events, primarily as a consequence of a 21% relative reduction in nephropathy. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00145925.)

Effects of ACE inhibitors, calcium antagonists, and other blood-pressure-lowering drugs: results of prospectively designed overviews of randomised trials. Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration.

BACKGROUND This programme of overviews of randomised trials was established to investigate the effects of angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, calcium antagonists, and other blood-pressure-lowering drugs on mortality and major cardiovascular morbidity in several populations of patients. We did separate overviews of trials comparing active treatment regimens with placebo, trials comparing more intensive and less intensive blood-pressure-lowering strategies, and trials comparing treatment regimens based on different drug classes. METHODS The hypotheses to be investigated, the trials to be included, and the outcomes to be studied were all selected before the results of any participating trial were known. Individual participant data or group tabular data were provided by each trial and combined by standard statistical techniques. FINDINGS The overview of placebo-controlled trials of ACE inhibitors (four trials, 12,124 patients mostly with coronary heart disease) revealed reductions in stroke (30% [95% CI 15-43]), coronary heart disease (20% [11-28]), and major cardiovascular events (21% [14-27]). The overview of placebo-controlled trials of calcium antagonists (two trials, 5520 patients mostly with hypertension) showed reductions in stroke (39% [15-56]) and major cardiovascular events (28% [13-41]). In the overview of trials comparing blood-pressure-lowering strategies of different intensity (three trials, 20,408 patients with hypertension), there were reduced risks of stroke (20% [2-35]), coronary heart disease (19% [2-33]), and major cardiovascular events (15% [4-24]) with more intensive therapy. In the overviews comparing different antihypertensive regimens (eight trials, 37,872 patients with hypertension), several differences in cause-specific effects were seen between calcium-antagonist-based therapy and other regimens, but each was of borderline significance. INTERPRETATION Strong evidence of benefits of ACE inhibitors and calcium antagonists is provided by the overviews of placebo-controlled trials. There is weaker evidence of differences between treatment regimens of differing intensities and of differences between treatment regimens based on different drug classes. Data from continuing trials of blood-pressure-lowering drugs will substantially increase the evidence available about any real differences that might exist between regimens.

The effects of lowering LDL cholesterol with simvastatin plus ezetimibe in patients with chronic kidney disease (Study of Heart and Renal Protection) : a randomised placebo-controlled trial

Summary Background Lowering LDL cholesterol with statin regimens reduces the risk of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, and the need for coronary revascularisation in people without kidney disease, but its effects in people with moderate-to-severe kidney disease are uncertain. The SHARP trial aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of the combination of simvastatin plus ezetimibe in such patients. Methods This randomised double-blind trial included 9270 patients with chronic kidney disease (3023 on dialysis and 6247 not) with no known history of myocardial infarction or coronary revascularisation. Patients were randomly assigned to simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg daily versus matching placebo. The key prespecified outcome was first major atherosclerotic event (non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death, non-haemorrhagic stroke, or any arterial revascularisation procedure). All analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00125593, and ISRCTN54137607. Findings 4650 patients were assigned to receive simvastatin plus ezetimibe and 4620 to placebo. Allocation to simvastatin plus ezetimibe yielded an average LDL cholesterol difference of 0·85 mmol/L (SE 0·02; with about two-thirds compliance) during a median follow-up of 4·9 years and produced a 17% proportional reduction in major atherosclerotic events (526 [11·3%] simvastatin plus ezetimibe vs 619 [13·4%] placebo; rate ratio [RR] 0·83, 95% CI 0·74–0·94; log-rank p=0·0021). Non-significantly fewer patients allocated to simvastatin plus ezetimibe had a non-fatal myocardial infarction or died from coronary heart disease (213 [4·6%] vs 230 [5·0%]; RR 0·92, 95% CI 0·76–1·11; p=0·37) and there were significant reductions in non-haemorrhagic stroke (131 [2·8%] vs 174 [3·8%]; RR 0·75, 95% CI 0·60–0·94; p=0·01) and arterial revascularisation procedures (284 [6·1%] vs 352 [7·6%]; RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·68–0·93; p=0·0036). After weighting for subgroup-specific reductions in LDL cholesterol, there was no good evidence that the proportional effects on major atherosclerotic events differed from the summary rate ratio in any subgroup examined, and, in particular, they were similar in patients on dialysis and those who were not. The excess risk of myopathy was only two per 10 000 patients per year of treatment with this combination (9 [0·2%] vs 5 [0·1%]). There was no evidence of excess risks of hepatitis (21 [0·5%] vs 18 [0·4%]), gallstones (106 [2·3%] vs 106 [2·3%]), or cancer (438 [9·4%] vs 439 [9·5%], p=0·89) and there was no significant excess of death from any non-vascular cause (668 [14·4%] vs 612 [13·2%], p=0·13). Interpretation Reduction of LDL cholesterol with simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg daily safely reduced the incidence of major atherosclerotic events in a wide range of patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. Funding Merck/Schering-Plough Pharmaceuticals; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council.

Severe Hypoglycemia and Risks of Vascular Events and Death

BACKGROUND Severe hypoglycemia may increase the risk of a poor outcome in patients with type 2 diabetes assigned to an intensive glucose-lowering intervention. We analyzed data from a large study of intensive glucose lowering to explore the relationship between severe hypoglycemia and adverse clinical outcomes. METHODS We examined the associations between severe hypoglycemia and the risks of macrovascular or microvascular events and death among 11,140 patients with type 2 diabetes, using Cox proportional-hazards models with adjustment for covariates measured at baseline and after randomization. RESULTS During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 231 patients (2.1%) had at least one severe hypoglycemic episode; 150 had been assigned to intensive glucose control (2.7% of the 5571 patients in that group), and 81 had been assigned to standard glucose control (1.5% of the 5569 patients in that group). The median times from the onset of severe hypoglycemia to the first major macrovascular event, the first major microvascular event, and death were 1.56 years (interquartile range, 0.84 to 2.41), 0.99 years (interquartile range, 0.40 to 2.17), and 1.05 years (interquartile range, 0.34 to 2.41), respectively. During follow-up, severe hypoglycemia was associated with a significant increase in the adjusted risks of major macrovascular events (hazard ratio, 2.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01 to 4.12), major microvascular events (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.19 to 2.74), death from a cardiovascular cause (hazard ratio, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.72 to 4.19), and death from any cause (hazard ratio, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.97 to 3.67) (P<0.001 for all comparisons). Similar associations were apparent for a range of nonvascular outcomes, including respiratory, digestive, and skin conditions (P<0.01 for all comparisons). No relationship was found between repeated episodes of severe hypoglycemia and vascular outcomes or death. CONCLUSIONS Severe hypoglycemia was strongly associated with increased risks of a range of adverse clinical outcomes. It is possible that severe hypoglycemia contributes to adverse outcomes, but these analyses indicate that hypoglycemia is just as likely to be a marker of vulnerability to such events. (Funded by Servier and the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00145925.).

Canagliflozin and Cardiovascular and Renal Events in Type 2 Diabetes

Background Canagliflozin is a sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor that reduces glycemia as well as blood pressure, body weight, and albuminuria in people with diabetes. We report the effects of treatment with canagliflozin on cardiovascular, renal, and safety outcomes. Methods The CANVAS Program integrated data from two trials involving a total of 10,142 participants with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. Participants in each trial were randomly assigned to receive canagliflozin or placebo and were followed for a mean of 188.2 weeks. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Results The mean age of the participants was 63.3 years, 35.8% were women, the mean duration of diabetes was 13.5 years, and 65.6% had a history of cardiovascular disease. The rate of the primary outcome was lower with canagliflozin than with placebo (occurring in 26.9 vs. 31.5 participants per 1000 patient‐years; hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.97; P<0.001 for noninferiority; P=0.02 for superiority). Although on the basis of the prespecified hypothesis testing sequence the renal outcomes are not viewed as statistically significant, the results showed a possible benefit of canagliflozin with respect to the progression of albuminuria (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.79) and the composite outcome of a sustained 40% reduction in the estimated glomerular filtration rate, the need for renal‐replacement therapy, or death from renal causes (hazard ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.77). Adverse reactions were consistent with the previously reported risks associated with canagliflozin except for an increased risk of amputation (6.3 vs. 3.4 participants per 1000 patient‐years; hazard ratio, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.41 to 2.75); amputations were primarily at the level of the toe or metatarsal. Conclusions In two trials involving patients with type 2 diabetes and an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease, patients treated with canagliflozin had a lower risk of cardiovascular events than those who received placebo but a greater risk of amputation, primarily at the level of the toe or metatarsal. (Funded by Janssen Research and Development; CANVAS and CANVAS‐R ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01032629 and NCT01989754, respectively.)

Profits and pandemics: prevention of harmful effects of tobacco, alcohol and ultra processed food and drink industries

The 2011 UN high-level meeting on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) called for multisectoral action including with the private sector and industry. However, through the sale and promotion of tobacco, alcohol, and ultra-processed food and drink (unhealthy commodities), transnational corporations are major drivers of global epidemics of NCDs. What role then should these industries have in NCD prevention and control? We emphasise the rise in sales of these unhealthy commodities in low-income and middle-income countries, and consider the common strategies that the transnational corporations use to undermine NCD prevention and control. We assess the effectiveness of self-regulation, public-private partnerships, and public regulation models of interaction with these industries and conclude that unhealthy commodity industries should have no role in the formation of national or international NCD policy. Despite the common reliance on industry self-regulation and public-private partnerships, there is no evidence of their effectiveness or safety. Public regulation and market intervention are the only evidence-based mechanisms to prevent harm caused by the unhealthy commodity industries.

Rapid Blood-Pressure Lowering in Patients with Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND Whether rapid lowering of elevated blood pressure would improve the outcome in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage is not known. METHODS We randomly assigned 2839 patients who had had a spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage within the previous 6 hours and who had elevated systolic blood pressure to receive intensive treatment to lower their blood pressure (with a target systolic level of <140 mm Hg within 1 hour) or guideline-recommended treatment (with a target systolic level of <180 mm Hg) with the use of agents of the physicians choosing. The primary outcome was death or major disability, which was defined as a score of 3 to 6 on the modified Rankin scale (in which a score of 0 indicates no symptoms, a score of 5 indicates severe disability, and a score of 6 indicates death) at 90 days. A prespecified ordinal analysis of the modified Rankin score was also performed. The rate of serious adverse events was compared between the two groups. RESULTS Among the 2794 participants for whom the primary outcome could be determined, 719 of 1382 participants (52.0%) receiving intensive treatment, as compared with 785 of 1412 (55.6%) receiving guideline-recommended treatment, had a primary outcome event (odds ratio with intensive treatment, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 1.01; P=0.06). The ordinal analysis showed significantly lower modified Rankin scores with intensive treatment (odds ratio for greater disability, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.00; P=0.04). Mortality was 11.9% in the group receiving intensive treatment and 12.0% in the group receiving guideline-recommended treatment. Nonfatal serious adverse events occurred in 23.3% and 23.6% of the patients in the two groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS In patients with intracerebral hemorrhage, intensive lowering of blood pressure did not result in a significant reduction in the rate of the primary outcome of death or severe disability. An ordinal analysis of modified Rankin scores indicated improved functional outcomes with intensive lowering of blood pressure. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; INTERACT2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00716079.).

Effects of different regimens to lower blood pressure on major cardiovascular events in older and younger adults: meta-analysis of randomised trials.

Objective To quantify the relative risk reductions achieved with different regimens to lower blood pressure in younger and older adults. Design Meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses used to compare the effects on the primary outcome between two age groups (<65 v ≥65 years). Evidence for an interaction between age and the effects of treatment sought by fitting age as a continuous variable and estimating overall effects across trials. Main outcome measures Primary outcome: total major cardiovascular events. Results 31 trials, with 190 606 participants, were included. The meta-analyses showed no clear difference between age groups in the effects of lowering blood pressure or any difference between the effects of the drug classes on major cardiovascular events (all P≥0.24). Neither was there any significant interaction between age and treatment when age was fitted as a continuous variable (all P>0.09). The meta-regressions also showed no difference in effects between the two age groups for the outcome of major cardiovascular events (<65 v ≥65; P=0.38). Conclusions Reduction of blood pressure produces benefits in younger (<65 years) and older (≥65 years) adults, with no strong evidence that protection against major vascular events afforded by different drug classes varies substantially with age.

Effects of fibrates on cardiovascular outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Several clinical trials have reported inconsistent findings for the effect of fibrates on cardiovascular risk. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the effects of fibrates on major clinical outcomes. METHODS We systematically searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for trials published between 1950 and March, 2010. We included prospective randomised controlled trials assessing the effects of fibrates on cardiovascular outcomes compared with placebo. Summary estimates of relative risk (RR) reductions were calculated with a random effects model. Outcomes analysed were major cardiovascular events, coronary events, stroke, heart failure, coronary revascularisation, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, non-vascular death, sudden death, new onset albuminuria, and drug-related adverse events. FINDINGS We identified 18 trials providing data for 45 058 participants, including 2870 major cardiovascular events, 4552 coronary events, and 3880 deaths. Fibrate therapy produced a 10% RR reduction (95% CI 0-18) for major cardiovascular events (p=0.048) and a 13% RR reduction (7-19) for coronary events (p<0.0001), but had no benefit on stroke (-3%, -16 to 9; p=0.69). We noted no effect of fibrate therapy on the risk of all-cause mortality (0%, -8 to 7; p=0.92), cardiovascular mortality (3%, -7 to 12; p=0.59), sudden death (11%, -6 to 26; p=0.19), or non-vascular mortality (-10%, -21 to 0.5; p=0.063). Fibrates reduced the risk of albuminuria progression by 14% (2-25; p=0.028). Serious drug-related adverse events were not significantly increased by fibrates (17 413 participants, 225 events; RR 1.21, 0.91-1.61; p=0.19), although increases in serum creatinine concentrations were common (1.99, 1.46-2.70; p<0.0001). INTERPRETATION Fibrates can reduce the risk of major cardiovascular events predominantly by prevention of coronary events, and might have a role in individuals at high risk of cardiovascular events and in those with combined dyslipidaemia. FUNDING National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

Intensive blood pressure reduction in acute cerebral haemorrhage trial (INTERACT): a randomised pilot trial

BACKGROUND There is much uncertainty about the effects of early lowering of elevated blood pressure (BP) after acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). Our aim was to assess the safety and efficiency of this treatment, as a run-in phase to a larger trial. METHODS Patients who had acute spontaneous ICH diagnosed by CT within 6 h of onset, elevated systolic BP (150-220 mm Hg), and no definite indication or contraindication to treatment were randomly assigned to early intensive lowering of BP (target systolic BP 140 mm Hg; n=203) or standard guideline-based management of BP (target systolic BP 180 mm Hg; n=201). The primary efficacy endpoint was proportional change in haematoma volume at 24 h; secondary efficacy outcomes included other measurements of haematoma volume. Safety and clinical outcomes were assessed for up to 90 days. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00226096. FINDINGS Baseline characteristics of patients were similar between groups, but mean haematoma volumes were smaller in the guideline group (12.7 mL, SD 11.6) than in the intensive group (14.2 mL, SD 14.5). From randomisation to 1 h, mean systolic BP was 153 mm Hg in the intensive group and 167 mm Hg in the guideline group (difference 13.3 mm Hg, 95% CI 8.9-17.6 mm Hg; p<0.0001); from 1 h to 24 h, BP was 146 mm Hg in the intensive group and 157 mm Hg in the guideline group (10.8 mm Hg, 95% CI 7.7-13.9 mm Hg; p<0.0001). Mean proportional haematoma growth was 36.3% in the guideline group and 13.7% in the intensive group (difference 22.6%, 95% CI 0.6-44.5%; p=0.04) at 24 h. After adjustment for initial haematoma volume and time from onset to CT, median haematoma growth differed between the groups with p=0.06; the absolute difference in volume between groups was 1.7 mL (95% CI -0.5 to 3.9, p=0.13). Relative risk of haematoma growth >or=33% or >or=12.5 mL was 36% lower (95% CI 0-59%, p=0.05) in the intensive group than in the guideline group. The absolute risk reduction was 8% (95% CI -1.0 to 17%, p=0.05). Intensive BP-lowering treatment did not alter the risks of adverse events or secondary clinical outcomes at 90 days. INTERPRETATION Early intensive BP-lowering treatment is clinically feasible, well tolerated, and seems to reduce haematoma growth in ICH. A large randomised trial is needed to define the effects on clinical outcomes across a broad range of patients with ICH. FUNDING National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.